Name: Is Civilization on the Brink of Collapse?
Uploaded: 2022-08-21T16:58:04.000Z
Duration: 11 min 33 s

At its height, the Roman Empire was home to about  30% of the world's population, and in many ways  

在羅馬帝國興盛時期，其人民占了全世界人口的百分之三十，而且從很多層面上來說

it was the pinnacle of human advancement. Its  citizens enjoyed the benefits of central heating,  

羅馬帝國在當時是人類文明的巔峰。人民可享受中央暖氣供應

concrete, double glazing,  banking, international trade,  

混凝土，雙層玻璃，銀行業，國際貿易

and upward social mobility. Rome became the first city in  

以及上升社會流動所帶來的好處。羅馬在當時因此成為

history with one million inhabitants  and was a center of technological,  

史上第一個擁有一百萬居民的城市，也是技術

legal, and economic progress. An empire impossible  to topple, stable and rich and powerful.

司法及經濟發展的中樞。一個無法被推翻的，穩定富饒且強盛的帝國

Until it wasn't anymore. First slowly then  suddenly, the most powerful civilization on earth  

直到它不再是如此為止。先慢後突然的，當時地球上最強大的人類文明

collapsed. By civilization, we mean a complex  society where labor is specialized and social  

崩潰了。對於文明，我們指的是一個勞動力專業化

classes emerge and which is ruled by institutions.  Civilisations share a dominant mutual language and  

社會階層化，被機構統治的複雜社會。文明共享占主導地位的語言和文化

culture and domesticate plants and  animals to feed and sustain large cities,  

文明馴化動植物來養活和維持大城市

where they often construct impressive monuments.

那裏經常建造讓人印象深刻的紀念碑

Civilization lets us become efficient on large  scales, collect vast amounts of knowledge,  

文明讓我們在大規模上變得高效率，蒐集龐大的知識

and put human ingenuity and the natural resources  of the world to work. Without civilization,  

並有效應用人類的聰明才智和大自然的資源。沒有文明

most people would never have been born. Which  makes it a bit concerning that collapse is  

大多數人永遠不會出生。這也讓我們感到擔憂

the rule, not the exception. Virtually all  civilizations end, on average after 340 years.

因為所有文明都會崩潰，沒有例外。文明平均在三百四十年後都會瓦解

Collapse is rarely nice for individuals.  Their shared cultural identity is shattered as  

一個文明的崩潰對人類個體來說往往不是件好事。人民共有的文化意識隨著

institutions lose the power to organize people.  Knowledge is lost, living standards fall, violence  

統治機構失去人類組織力而粉碎。知識丟失，生活水平下降，暴力

increases and often the population declines.  The civilization either completely disappears,  

增加，人口數常隨著下降。最終該文明要嘛完全消失

is absorbed by stronger neighbors  or something new emerges,  

要嘛被領近更強的文明吸收，要嘛新的文明從中誕生

sometimes with more primitive  technology than before.

其技術往往會比之前的文明更原始

If this is how it has been over  the ages, what about us today?  

如果文明從有史以來就一直是這樣發展的，那現在的情況又是如何呢？

Just as Europeans forgot how to build  indoor plumbing and make cement,  

就像當初忘了怎麼建造室內管道和水泥的歐洲人一樣

will we lose our industrial technology,  and with that our greatest achievements,  

我們會不會失去工業技術，並因此失去

from one dollar pizza to smartphones or  laser eye surgery? Will all this go away too?

從一元披薩到智能手機，或者是眼睛雷射手術這些偉大的成就?它們都會消失不見嗎?

Today our cities stretch for thousands of  square kilometers, we travel the skies,  

今天，我們的城市區域涵蓋上千平方公里。我們能遨遊天空

our communication is instant. Industrial  agriculture with engineered high yield plants,  

我們享有即時通訊。工業化的農業，設計出來的高產作物

efficient machinery and high potency fertilizer  feeds billions of people. Modern medicine gives  

高效率的機械以及強效的肥料使我們能夠養活數十億人。現代醫學技術

us the longest lifespan we've ever had, while  Industrial technology gives us an unprecedented  

給了我們有史以來最長的壽命。而工業技術給了我們空前的

level of comfort and abundance – even though  we haven't yet learned to attain them without  

舒適和富饒，雖然我們尚未能夠在不破壞生態系統的情況下

destroying our ecosphere. There are arguably  still different civilizations around today that  

得到它們。今天可能仍然有不同互相競爭

compete and coexist with each other, but together  they also form a singular, global civilization.

與共存的文明，但整體上它們也構建一個單一的全球文明

But this modern, globalized civilization is even  more vulnerable in some ways than past empires,  

但是這個現代的全球化文明在某方面上跟以往的文明比起來更加脆弱

because we are much more deeply interconnected.  

A collapse of the industrialized world literally  means that the majority of people alive today  

工業化世界的崩潰會使多數人死亡

would perish since without industrial agriculture  we would no longer be able to feed them.

因為一旦沒有了工業化農業，我們不再有辦法養活他們

And there is an even greater  risk: What if a collapse were so  

此外還有個更大的風險：如果一個文明崩潰的

deeply destructive that we were  unable to re-industrialize again?  

殺傷力強大到我們無法再度工業化的話怎麼辦？

What if it ruined our chances of enjoying a  flourishing future as a multiplanetary species?

如果它破壞了我們作為多行星物種享受繁榮未來的機會怎麼辦？

A global civilizational collapse  could be an existential catastrophe:  

一個全球文明的崩潰有可能是個人類存亡的災難

something that ruins not just the  lives of everyone alive today,  

不止能毀掉所有今天活著的人的生活

but all the future generations that could have  come into being. All the knowledge we might have  

甚至能摧毀所有原本能夠出現的未來世代。所有我們所發現的知識

discovered, the art we might have created, the  joys we might have experienced, would be lost.

所創造的藝術，以及我們所經歷過的喜悅，都可能因此消失

那麼，這種文明崩潰有多大可能發生呢？

Let's start with some good news. While  civilization collapses have happened regularly,  

讓我們先從好消息開始說起。雖然文明的崩潰很有規律的發生

none have ever derailed the course of  global civilization. Rome collapsed,  

目前沒有一個崩潰破壞了全球文明的進程。羅馬帝國雖然崩潰了

but the Aksumite Empire or the Teotihuacans  and of course the Byzantine Empire, carried on.

但阿克蘇姆帝國，特奧蒂瓦坎文明，以及拜占庭帝國延續了下來

So far we have not seen a catastrophe  that has killed much more than 10% of the  

目前為止我們尚未遇到一場能抹殺多於百分之十全球人口的災難

global population. No pandemic,  no natural disaster, no war.  

The last clear example of a rapid global  population decrease was the Black Death,  

史上最後一個迅速種群崩潰的明顯例子是黑死病

a pandemic of the bubonic plague in the fourteenth  century that spread across the Middle East and  

Europe and killed a third of all Europeans  and about 1/10th of the global population.

歐洲的流行性淋巴腺鼠疫，當時造成三分之一的歐洲人以及約十分之一的全球人口死亡

If any event was going to cause the  collapse of civilization, that should have  

如果有什麼能造成文明崩潰的事件的話，黑死病

been it. But even the Black Death demonstrates  humanity's resilience more than its fragility.  

是最接近的了。但比起人類的脆弱，黑死病更加展示了人類的韌性

While the old societies were  massively disrupted in the short term,  

雖然當時的舊社會在短期間內受到大幅度影響

the intense loss of human lives and suffering  did little to negatively impact European economic  

這些大量的人命喪失與痛苦對歐洲的經濟

and technological development in the long run.  Population size recovered within 2 centuries,  

和技術發展在長遠來看其實沒什麼負面影響。人口數在兩個世紀裡就恢復了

and just 2 centuries later, the  Industrial Revolution began.   

又過了兩個世紀之後，工業革命開始了

History is full of incredible recoveries from  horrible tragedies. Take the atomic bombing of  

史書裡到處記載著可怕悲劇發生後的驚人復甦。拿二戰末期廣島市原子彈

Hiroshima during World War 2. 140,000 people were  killed and 90% of the city was at least partially  

爆炸事件為例，當時有十四萬人死亡，並且百分之九十的城市至少被部分

incinerated or reduced to rubble. But against all  odds, they made a remarkable recovery! Hiroshima's  

焚燒或化為瓦礫。即便如此，他們仍然排除萬難，取得了顯著的恢復！廣島的

population recovered within a decade, and today  it is a thriving city of 1.2 million people.

人口在十年內恢復，如今廣島是個擁有一百二十萬人口的繁榮城市

None of this made these horrible events any  less horrible for those who lived through them.  

雖然這些無法讓經歷過可怕悲劇的那些人感到好過一點

But for us as a species, these  signs of resilience are good news.

但以一個人類族群來說，這些展現出來的韌性是個好消息

Why Recovery is Likely Even in the Worst Case

文明為什麼即使在最糟的情況下仍很有可能復甦？

One thing that's different from historic collapses  is that humanity now has unprecedented destructive  

和以往歷史崩潰不同的地方是，人們今天有空前的破壞力

power: Today's nuclear arsenals are so powerful  that an all-out global war could cause a nuclear  

今天的核武庫如此強大，一場全面的全球戰爭可能導致核冬天

winter and billions of deaths. Our knowledge  of our own biology and how to manipulate it  

以及數十億人口死亡。我們對人體的認知如此

is getting so advanced that it is becoming  possible to engineer viruses as contagious  

進階，如今已有可能設計如冠狀病毒般

as the coronavirus and as deadly  as ebola. Increasingly the risk of  

高傳染率，以及如伊波拉病毒般高致死率的病毒。全球瘟疫發生

global pandemics is much higher than in the past. So we may cause a collapse ourselves and it might  

的可能性比以往高出許多。所以我們有可能自身導致文明崩潰

be much worse than the things nature has thrown  at us, so far. But if, say 99% of the population  

並且這些人禍可能比至今為止的天災還要糟糕。假設百分之九十九的全球人口

died, would global civilization collapse  forever? Could we recover from such a tragedy?

死亡了，全球的文明會永遠崩潰嗎？我們有辦法從這場悲劇中復原嗎？

We have some reasons to be optimistic.  Let's start with food. There are 1 billion  

我們有能夠樂觀的理由。先從食物開始說起。今天有十億個

agricultural workers today so, even if the  global population fell to just 80 million,  

農業工人，所以即使全球人口縮減至八千萬

it is virtually guaranteed that many  survivors would know how to produce food.  

我們幾乎可以保證之中許多的倖存者會知道怎麼製造食物

And we don't need to start at square one because  we could still use modern high-yield crops.  

而且我們並不需要從頭開始，因為我們還是可以使用現代的高產作物

Maize is 10 times bigger than its wild ancestor;  ancient tomatoes were the size of today's peas.

今天的玉米比它的野生祖先大十倍；古代的番茄大小和今天的豆子差不多大

After agriculture, the next step towards recovery  

農業之後，通往文明復甦的下一步

would be rebuilding industrial capacity,  like power grids and automated manufacturing.  

是重建工業產能，如電網和自動化製造

A huge problem is that our economies of scale make  it impossible to just pick up where we left off.  

這步有個大問題：因爲規模經濟的關係我們沒辦法直接從之前中斷的地方繼續前進

Many of our high tech industries are  only functional because of huge demand  

很多高科技產業之所以能運營是因爲它們有龐大的需求量

and intensely interconnected supply  chains across different continents.  

以及非常緊密連接大洲的供應鏈

Even if our infrastructure were left unharmed, we  would make huge steps backwards technologically.

即使我們的基礎設施沒有受到損害，我們還是需要在技術上大步倒退

But then again, we are thinking in larger time  frames. Industrialization originally happened  

不過再一次的，我們在用大規模的時間框架做思考。工業化原本在

12,000 years after the agricultural revolution. So  if we need to start over after a massive collapse,  

農業革命一萬兩千年后發生。所以如果我們需要在一個龐大崩潰后重頭開始

it shouldn't be that hard to re-industrialize,  at least on evolutionary timescales.

重新工業化應該不會太難，至少按進化時間的尺度來看的話

There's a hitch, though. The Industrial  Revolution was fuelled, literally, by burning  

不過我們有個障礙。工業革命當時以燃燒

easily-accessible coal and we are still very  much reliant on it. If we use it all up today,  

容易獲得的煤炭為動力，而我們現在仍然非常依賴它們。如果我們今天把它們全用完

aside from making rapid climate change  much worse, we could hinder our ability  

除了使氣候變遷更嚴重以外，我們可能會因此喪失

to recover from a huge crisis. So we  should stop using easy-to-access coal,  

從巨大危機復原的能力。所以我們應該停止使用這些容易獲得的煤炭

so it can serve as a civilization  insurance in case something bad happens.

作爲一種文明保險，以防萬一發生不好的事情

Another thing that makes recovery likely is that  we'd probably have most of the information we  

另一樣讓復甦更容易實現的事情是我們可能還保留著大部分

need to rebuild civilization. We would certainly  lose a lot of crucial institutional knowledge,  

重建文明所需的信息。我們肯定會失去很多重要的機構知識

especially on hard drives that nobody could  read or operate anymore. But a lot of the  

尤其是那些保存在人們已無法解讀的硬盤裏。但是很多

technological, scientific, and cultural knowledge  stored in the world's 2.6 million libraries,  

技術方面，科學方面，以及文化方面的知識會在世界上兩百六十萬間圖書館内

would survive the catastrophe. The post-collapse  survivors would know what used to be possible,  

幸存下來。文明崩潰後的幸存者將會知道什麽在以往是可行的

and they could reverse engineer some  of the tools and machines they'd find.

并且能夠對一些發現到的工具和機器進行逆向工程

In conclusion, despite the bleak  prospect of catastrophic threats,  

總而言之，儘管災難性威脅的前景黯淡

natural or created by ourselves,  there is reason for optimism:  

天災也好，人禍也罷，我們仍有樂觀的理由