Name: 房屋市場即將翻轉 - 這就是原因 (The Housing Market is About To Flip - Here is Why)
Uploaded: 2021-08-17T19:50:39.000Z
Duration: 10 min 20 s

In June 2021 home prices across the United States surged by 24.8% to a median sales price of $386,888 according to Redfin during the same time period, The number of homes sold increased by 20.6 And the number of homes for sale tumbled by almost 40%.

根據Redfin的數據，2021年6月全美國的房價飆升了24.8%，中位銷售價格為386,888美元，同期售出的房屋數量增加了20.6，而待售房屋的數量則下降了近40%。

Just two years ago, right before the pandemic.

就在兩年前，就在大流行病發生之前。

The medium home price was around $250,000.

中等的房屋價格約為25萬美元。

We have already explained in previous videos why home prices have been rising so dramatically.

我們已經在以前的視頻中解釋了為什麼房價一直在急劇上升。

But the situation is so unpredictable that most people can't wait to decide what they should do.

但情況是如此不可預測，以至於大多數人無法等待決定他們應該做什麼。

Should you buy a house now or wait another few months with the market crash this year or next year or maybe it will never crush and rice forever.

你應該現在買房還是再等幾個月，今年或明年的市場崩潰，或者也許它永遠不會粉碎和米。

But here is what I want to point out when we talk about crushes about what could happen.

但這裡是我想指出的，當我們談論暗戀的時候，關於可能發生的事情。

Some people get mad and say name the date or you have said it earlier but it didn't crush.

有些人很生氣，說說出日期，或者你已經說過了，但它沒有粉碎。

You see no one can tell you anything for sure.

你看，沒有人可以肯定地告訴你什麼。

If anyone had inside information and you fully sure what will crush he would have shortened the entire market and earned a few $100 billion the next day or maybe trillions but that's not going to happen because first of all, no one knows the future and number two, if you use inside information to benefit yourself that is criminal offence for which you can get jailed.

如果有人掌握了內部資訊，而且你完全確定會粉碎什麼，他就會做空整個市場，第二天就能賺到幾千億美元，也可能是幾萬億美元，但這是不可能的，因為首先，沒有人知道未來，第二，如果你利用內部資訊為自己謀利，那是刑事犯罪，你會被關進監獄。

So you won't be able to enjoy the billions of dollars when you are stuck in prison.

是以，當你被困在監獄裡時，你將無法享受這數十億美元的收入。

But what we can do is analyze the market, look at different factors.

但我們能做的是分析市場，看看不同的因素。

Use historical data to interpret the current events, look at the current trends and find out how similar trends have ended in the past.

使用歷史數據來解釋當前的事件，看看當前的趨勢，並找出過去類似趨勢的結局。

That will give us a glimpse into what could happen.

這將使我們對可能發生的情況有一絲瞭解。

So what we are going to do is find out where the housing market is today.

是以，我們要做的是找出今天住房市場的狀況。

There are certain factors that influence and drive the market and by looking at them, we can get an idea of where the market is headed.

有一些因素影響和推動市場，通過觀察這些因素，我們可以瞭解市場的走向。

For example, if we all pump a price of a certain asset, it is eventually going to plummet because it was raised artificially and it doesn't carry any real value.

例如，如果我們都抽出某種資產的價格，它最終會暴跌，因為它是人為提高的，它不帶有任何實際價值。

It is sort because we have decided that we are going to keep buying until the price shoots to the moon.

這是因為我們已經決定要繼續購買，直到價格飆升到月球。

Some people might argue that unlike the last crash, prices are rising naturally.

有些人可能會說，與上一次崩盤不同，價格正在自然上升。

There is a real shortage of houses in the market and on top of that material prices have risen, which resulted in a higher cost of building new houses.

市場上確實存在房屋短缺的問題，除此之外，材料價格也在上漲，這導致了建造新房的成本增加。

But why the cost of materials has risen in the first place.

但為什麼材料的成本首先會上升。

To think about One of the main reasons is unexpected demand.

要思考 其中一個主要原因是意外的需求。

Since the 2008 crash, this market has been heavily regulated so that just enough houses are being built to keep up with the demand.

自2008年崩盤以來，這個市場一直受到嚴格的監管，是以建造的房屋剛好能滿足需求。

So when the demand for houses doubled or tripled, suppliers were not ready for it.

是以，當對房屋的需求增加了一倍或兩倍時，供應商還沒有準備好。

On top of that, the pandemic slowed down the existing supply chains, which only made the situation worse.

除此之外，大流行病減緩了現有的供應鏈，這隻會使情況變得更糟。

So naturally there were not enough materials to catch up with the demand based on the basics laws of economics.

是以，根據基本的經濟規律，自然沒有足夠的材料來追趕需求。

When demand rises and supply stays the same prices rise, of course, we all know that the main reason why demand draws so dramatically is because of these juicy low interest rates.

當需求上升而供應保持不變時，價格就會上升，當然，我們都知道，需求如此急劇吸引的主要原因是這些多汁的低利率。

I mean, getting a mortgage 2% ready is a dream come true.

我的意思是，準備好2%的抵押貸款是一個夢想成真。

It is probably the best investment you can ever make.

這可能是你能做出的最好的投資。

But the problem is that the demand pushed prices to rise so much that these low interest rates are no longer making sense.

但問題是，需求推動了價格的上漲，以至於這些低利率不再有意義了。

The median house price in 2019 was $275,000.

2019年的房價中位數為27.5萬美元。

If you had taken a 30 year mortgage at 4% interest back, then your total cost of the house would have been $378,000.

如果你以4%的利息進行30年的抵押貸款，那麼你的房子的總成本將是378,000美元。

That is without taxes, insurance or renovation.

這還不包括稅收、保險或裝修。

Just the cost of the mortgage, let's compare that to the median mortgage in 2021.

只是抵押貸款的成本，讓我們與2021年的抵押貸款中位數進行比較。

The median house price in 2021 is $363,000.

2021年的房價中位數為36.3萬美元。

Let's say you will get a 30 year mortgage at 2.8%.

比方說，你將以2.8%的利率獲得30年的抵押貸款。

The total cost of your house without considering taxes and other expenses Would amount to $429,565.

在不考慮稅收和其他費用的情況下，你的房子的總成本將達到429,565美元。

In other words, buying a house in 2019 where mortgage rates were higher was cheaper than now with these super-low interest rates.

換句話說，在抵押貸款利率較高的2019年買房，比現在這些超低的利率要便宜。

So if you think that you're getting a good deal, just because interest rates are so low, you're mistaken You got to take a look at the numbers again on top of that because the demand is so high and not many are willing to sell since prices are still rising.

是以，如果你認為你得到了一個很好的交易，只是因為利率如此之低，你就錯了。你得再看看上面的數字，因為需求如此之高，沒有多少人願意出售，因為價格還在上升。

That's why we hear so many stories about people over paying by 2030 or even 50% just to be able to buy a house.

這就是為什麼我們聽到這麼多關於人們為了能夠買到房子而超額支付2030甚至50%的故事。

如果你是一個房主，你很幸運。

But if you're planning to buy a house, then it's probably the worst time to buy a house.

但如果你打算買房，那麼這可能是買房的最壞時機。

Even though we no longer have predatory lending practices like we did in the 2000s, that is still a clear sign that the market is overvalued.

即使我們不再有像2000年代那樣的掠奪性貸款行為，但這仍然是市場被高估的一個明顯跡象。

But most people don't look at that, they see home prices are rising.

但大多數人不看這個，他們看到的是房價在上漲。

The fear of missing out pushes them to buy a house, but that only makes the situation worse as it already did.

害怕錯過的心態促使他們買房，但這隻會讓情況變得更糟，因為情況已經如此。

Fomo as it's known, is a social and anxiety stemming from the belief that others might be having fun.

眾所周知，Fomo是一種社交和焦慮，源於相信其他人可能正在享受樂趣。

While the person experiencing that anxiety is not present.

當經歷這種焦慮的人不在場時。

The fear of regret, which may lead to concerns that one might miss an opportunity to make money in this case buying a house that will appreciate dramatically in value in the next year or so, but that often leads to disastrous consequences.

害怕後悔，這可能會導致人們擔心會錯過賺錢的機會，在這種情況下，購買一套在未來一年左右會急劇升值的房子，但這往往會導致災難性的後果。

That's what led many people to invest in Bitcoin when it was trading at $64,000 or in 2017 when it hits over $20,000 But then plummeted to less than $4,000 in less than two years.

這就是導致許多人在比特幣交易價格為64,000美元時，或在2017年衝擊超過20,000美元時投資比特幣的原因，但隨後在不到兩年的時間裡暴跌至不到4,000美元。

So never let the fear of missing out drive your investment decisions.

是以，永遠不要讓對錯過的恐懼驅動你的投資決定。

Yes, you're going to miss a lot of opportunities and you're not going to hit them all and if you try to get them all, you will most likely fail as a wise man once said, you only have to be right once.

是的，你會錯過很多機會，也不會全部命中，如果你試圖得到所有的機會，你很可能會失敗，正如一位智者曾經說過的，你只需要做對一次。

And by the way, house prices are already slowing down for the exact reasons we have discussed.

順便說一句，由於我們討論的確切原因，房價已經在放緩。

When 10 people are bidding for one house landlords are just waiting for the buyers to beat each other out.

當10個人在競標一棟房子時，房東只是在等著買家們互相打壓。

Some homes are selling for 50% higher than they are listed in the market.

一些房屋的售價比市場上的掛牌價高出50%。

When you look at it from this perspective, it is very clear that house prices should crash or at least be corrected.

從這個角度看，很明顯，房價應該崩潰，或者至少應該被糾正。

But unfortunately, the market is not as free as many of us are led to believe it is heavily regulated by the Fed in 2008 when the economy collapsed.

但不幸的是，市場並不像我們許多人所認為的那樣自由，它在2008年經濟崩潰時受到美聯儲的嚴厲監管。

Yes, the Fed intervened and bailed out many huge corporations, but it reacted too late.

是的，美聯儲進行了干預，救助了許多巨大的公司，但它的反應太晚了。

So it took the economy a really long time to recover.

是以，經濟花了很長的時間來恢復。

So this time the Fed took an entirely different approach.

是以，這一次美聯儲採取了完全不同的方法。

It decided to react to fast and prevent a crisis at the expense of inflation.

它決定作出快速反應，以犧牲通貨膨脹為代價來防止危機的發生。

Yeah, the Fed kept saying that inflation is not an issue, but we all know that it is an issue.

是的，美聯儲一直說通貨膨脹不是一個問題，但我們都知道它是一個問題。

In fact the Fed already began recognizing that, but it didn't back then because if the Fed would have said that inflation is coming, people would have spent their money as soon as possible, causing more inflation which would drive more people to spend, causing more inflation by now, it's clear that the Fed has chosen a strategy to inflate the market until prices correct themselves and that's exactly what happened.

事實上，美聯儲已經開始認識到這一點，但當時沒有，因為如果美聯儲會說通貨膨脹即將到來，人們就會盡快花錢，造成更多的通貨膨脹，這將促使更多的人消費，造成更多的通貨膨脹，到現在，很明顯，美聯儲選擇了一種策略，讓市場膨脹，直到價格自我糾正，這正是發生的情況。

That's all has led to a higher ratio between house prices and income.

這都導致了房價和收入之間的比例上升。

There is a co relation between house prices and people's income.

房價和人們的收入之間存在著一種共同的關係。

The vast majority of homes in the US are purchased two mortgages for a number of reasons.

在美國，絕大多數的房屋都是由兩個抵押貸款購買的，原因有很多。

First of all, houses are too expensive and most people can afford one without getting a mortgage.

首先，房子太貴了，大多數人不用抵押貸款就能買得起。

And secondly, you get a lot of tax advantages if you take a mortgage, but when house prices rise significantly faster than income, people will no longer be able to afford the house.

其次，如果你採取抵押貸款，你會得到很多稅收優惠，但當房價上漲速度明顯快於收入時，人們將不再能夠負擔得起房子。

Someone with a $50,000 could afford the $250,000.

擁有5萬美元的人可以負擔25萬美元。

House assuming a 20% down payment, which was the median house price in 2019.

房子假設首付為20%，這是2019年的房價中位數。

But a 2021 with a $50,000, you no longer can afford a house.

但2021年有了5萬美元，你就再也買不起房子了。

Let's be honest, income hasn't grown much since then.

說實話，從那時起，收入並沒有增長多少。

Whenever you see that the gap between people's income and house prices widen.

每當你看到人們的收入和房價之間的差距擴大。

Be careful because that is unsustainable.

要小心，因為那是不可持續的。

Despite all of these factors, it's impossible to make any predictions because what's happening now is unlike anything we have ever seen in history.

儘管有所有這些因素，但不可能做出任何預測，因為現在發生的事情與我們在歷史上看到的任何事情都不同。

The Fed has never been so easy to inflate the market with dollars and it has been in recent years.

美聯儲從未如此輕易地用美元來充實市場，而且近年來也是如此。

So only time will tell whether it's going to end with a crash, a correction or something entirely different.

是以，只有時間能證明，它是否會以崩潰、修正或完全不同的方式結束。

But before that happens, go ahead and pick up some free assets.

但在這之前，先去拿一些免費的資產吧。

If you use the link in the description, you can get two free stocks from Weibo.

如果你使用描述中的鏈接，你可以從微博獲得兩支免費的股票。

是的，來自真實公司的真實股票。

WeboS是一個無佣金的經紀公司。

So go ahead and give them a try or check out my course and skills here where you can learn how to invest, how to analyze companies and find great investments.

是以，去試試吧，或者看看我的課程和技能，在這裡你可以學習如何投資，如何分析公司和尋找偉大的投資。

The link is in the description again and now give this video a thumbs up that it deserves a next year to subscribe if you haven't done that yet.

鏈接又在描述中，現在給這個視頻豎起大拇指，說它值得明年去訂閱，如果你還沒有這樣做。

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房屋市場即將翻轉 - 這就是原因 (The Housing Market is About To Flip - Here is Why)

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