The pandemic has been an enormous upheaval for us economically.

疫情對我們的經濟造成了巨大的動盪。

Last year we had minus 5.5% GDP growth, which is our worst ever.

去年我們的GDP增長為負5.5%，這是我們有史以來最差的一年。

Uh, in terms of cases, we've had quite a lot of cases 60,000 odd, but fortunately, most of them have not been severe cases, so our fatalities have been very, very low.

呃，在病例方面，我們已經有相當多的病例 6萬多例，但幸運的是，他們中的大多數都不是嚴重的病例，所以我們的死亡率一直非常，非常低。

I think so far with 29 died of covid.

我想到目前為止有29人死於科維德。

But the social impact, the disruption anxieties over lots of pay, lots of jobs over what will you do with our Children at home and schools closed?

但是，社會影響，干擾焦慮很多的工資，很多的工作，在家裡和學校關閉，你會怎麼做我們的孩子？

That has been pervasive.

這已經是普遍現象了。

Globalization is a longer term problem or D globalization.

全球化是一個比較長遠的問題，或者說D全球化。

There have been trends underway for some time now, not least because of us China, but not just that.

這段時間以來，已經有了趨勢，尤其是因為我們中國的原因，但不僅僅是這樣。

And with the covid experience, that may give it a further push.

而有了covid的經驗，這可能會進一步推動它的發展。

I hope not over the edge, but it will push it a little bit further because everybody will say I need to make my own masks.

我希望不要超過邊緣，但會把它推得更遠一些，因為大家會說我需要自己做面膜。

I need to have my own supply chains and, uh, when everyone scrambles at the same time for something scarce.

我需要有自己的供應鏈，而且，當大家同時爭搶稀缺的東西時。

It's not very good for the world.

這對世界不是很好。

Globalization, even in your own country, hasn't always benefited everyone.

全球化，即使是在你自己的國家，也不一定能讓所有人受益。

Many people have felt left out here.

很多人都感覺到這裡被冷落了。

Do we need a new economic model?

我們是否需要一個新的經濟模式？

I think globalization has benefited everybody in Singapore.

我認為全球化對新加坡的每個人都有好處。

You may not feel it so, but there were not if we did not have the multinationals here if we did not have the international trade that we have.

你可能不這麼認為，但如果我們沒有跨國公司在這裡，如果我們沒有我們所擁有的國際貿易，就不會有。

If we did not were not open as we are, I have no doubt all of us would be worse off.

如果我們沒有像現在這樣開放，我毫不懷疑我們所有人都會變得更糟。

But what has generated tensions is when the interface is so stark.

但產生緊張的是，當界面如此鮮明。

People see the competition directly because they are in a global market now.

人們直接看到競爭，因為現在是在全球市場。

But at the same time, they understand that our way forward cannot be too close ourselves up, because if we do that, we are all going to be worse off.

但同時，他們也明白，我們的前進道路不能把自己封閉得太嚴密，因為如果這樣做，我們都會變得更糟糕。

Is that the way you see Singapore growing in the future?

您認為新加坡未來的發展方向是這樣的嗎？

Given the backlash against globalization that we're seeing now, we will work very hard to do.

鑑於我們現在看到的對全球化的反彈，我們會非常努力地去做。

That is not just a matter of good intentions, but also whether or not we can make sure that people see that globalization is working out for them and for the people who feel that the competition is fierce and the future is unpredictable, that, in fact, that they know that there's an extra help for them.

這不僅是一個善意的問題，也是我們能否讓人們看到全球化對他們的作用，對那些覺得競爭激烈、未來不可預知的人來說，其實，他們知道有一個額外的幫助在幫助他們。

There's extra support for them that they are not alone in this and that in Singapore we will make sure that they are well looked after, provided they make the effort to continue to upgrade themselves.

有額外的支持，讓他們知道他們並不孤單，在新加坡，我們將確保他們得到很好的照顧，只要他們努力繼續提升自己。

And we're putting a lot of effort into this.

而且我們在這方面投入了很多精力。

We're putting.

我們把。

We've got skills Future, which is a comprehensive program to train and retrain people throughout their working lives after they have left school causes recognition schemes, uh, arrangements with employers, government subsidies.

我們已經得到了技能未來，這是一個全面的計劃，以培訓和再培訓的人在他們的工作生活中，他們已經離開學校的原因承認計劃，呃，安排與僱主，政府補貼。

Every country is trying to do this, but we are doing it.

每個國家都在嘗試這樣做，但我們正在這樣做。

We're trying to do it more systematically.

我們正在嘗試更系統地進行。

And, uh, with Alpha full resources behind it, the U.

而且，呃，在Alpha全資源的支持下，U。

S China relationship has deteriorated significantly over the last few years.

斯中關係在過去幾年中明顯惡化。

When the time comes, which one will you choose?

到時候，你會選擇哪一個？

I hope the time does not come.

我希望這個時間不會到來。

I mean, it is not possible for us to choose one or the other because we are very intense and extensive ties with both the US and with China economic as well as in other areas and so to do many other countries in the world.

我的意思是，我們不可能選擇一個或另一個，因為我們與美國和中國的經濟以及其他領域都有非常緊密和廣泛的聯繫，所以要做世界上許多其他國家。

So I don't think this is a dilemma only to Singapore.

所以，我不認為這是一個只有新加坡才有的難題。

It's a problem for many countries in the world, which is why we are all hoping and encouraging there too large powers to think very carefully before embarking on deciding that the other one is an adversary and one which has to be kept down if not put down.

這是世界上許多國家的問題，所以我們都希望和鼓勵有太大國在著手決定對方是一個對手，而且是一個即使不放下也必須放下的對手之前，要非常慎重地考慮。

What would it take?

要怎麼做？

Do you think to get to a point where we see real military conflict between China and the United States?

你認為到了一個點，我們會看到中美之間真正的軍事衝突嗎？

How likely is the possibility?

這種可能性有多大？

Do you think it's more likely than it was five years ago?

你覺得比五年前更有可能嗎？

But I think the odds of a military clash not yet high, but the risk of severe tensions which will raise the odds later on.

但我認為發生軍事衝突的概率還不高，但有可能出現嚴重的緊張局勢，以後會提高概率。

I think that's considerable because both sides take their domestic calculations as paramount.

我認為這是相當可觀的，因為雙方都把國內的計算當作最重要的。

What's a domestic position?

國內立場是什麼？

How can they secure it?

他們怎麼能保證呢？

What must they do with their own populations and their external relations are based on that and therefore it's not so easy to say?

他們一定要對自己的民眾做什麼，他們的對外關係也是建立在這個基礎上的，所以說也不是那麼容易?

Well, the external logic compels you to work together because the internal logic may impel you to take a very hard line, and then you may find yourself at an impasse and clash, and that can easily happen.

好吧，外在的邏輯迫使你合作，因為內在的邏輯可能會促使你採取非常強硬的路線，然後你可能會發現自己陷入僵局，發生衝突，這很容易發生。

Do you think the U.

你認為美國。

S.

S.

Needs to accept that it's no longer number one?

需要接受它不再是第一？

I think the U.

我認為U。

S.

S.

Is still number one, but number two is not so far behind, and that's what is difficult for the US to accept.

是仍然是第一，但第二名也不至於落後，這也是美國難以接受的地方。

And when it comes to China, you know it very well.

而說到中國，你很清楚。

I wouldn't claim that what I wanted to ask you is how concerned you are with the direction that China is taking politically.

我不會說，我想問你的是，你對中國在政治上的發展方向有多關注。

Well, I do not.

好吧，我沒有。

We cannot judge the domestic pressures which lead China to make the decisions it makes.

我們無法判斷導致中國做出決策的國內壓力。

But I think internationally, the position which has taken it has wanted some friends.

但我認為在國際上，已經採取了它的立場，希望有一些朋友。

But at the same time, it has led two tensions with major powers, and there is significant uncertainty anxiety over which way China is going, and will this be good for them?

但與此同時，也導致了與大國之間的兩次緊張，中國往哪邊走，對大國是否有利，存在很大的不確定性焦慮？

And I don't think that is in China's interest.

而我認為這不符合中國的利益。

So what do you think might be a better solution or a better way?

那麼你認為什麼是更好的解決方案或更好的方法呢？

I would hesitate to give advice to other countries leaders.

我不願意向其他國家領導人提供建議。

I think they all make their own calculations.

我想他們都是自己計算的。

But what we would like to see is China being able to be a country where its prosperity and its development and its growing strength is welcomed by other countries in the world who see this as an opportunity for them to prosper together and to live in a stable world together.

但我們希望看到的是，中國能夠成為一個國家，它的繁榮和發展，它的實力不斷增強，受到世界上其他國家的歡迎，他們認為這是他們共同繁榮的機會，共同生活在一個穩定的世界裡。

And even now, many, many countries, including Singapore, want very much to maintain good relations with China in order to benefit from China's development and to co prosper with them.

甚至現在，包括新加坡在內的很多很多國家，都非常希望與中國保持良好的關係，以便從中國的發展中獲益，與中國共同繁榮。

So I think that that is a very important factor which China has had in its favor, which it would be a pity to miss out with Miss Out on in the next phase if you look at America.

所以，我認為這是一個非常重要的因素，中國已經有了有利的因素，如果你看美國，在下一階段錯過了與Miss Out的機會，那就太可惜了。

It used to be that the business people American businessman MNCs would be one of the strongest advocates for China and for good relations with China because they saw the opportunities there, they saw how they could prosper there.

過去，美國商人跨國公司會是中國和與中國建立良好關係的最有力的支持者之一，因為他們看到了那裡的機會，看到了如何在那裡繁榮發展。

They were investing there.

他們在那裡投資。

They were trading.

他們在交易。

Wal Mart buys enormous amounts from China, and it benefits Americans not just Walmart, but benefits American housewives and ordinary people all over the country.

沃爾瑪從中國購買了鉅額的商品，它讓美國人受益的不僅僅是沃爾瑪，而是讓美國的家庭主婦和全國各地的普通人受益。

But in the last 57 years, I think American business attitudes have shifted, and they are now no longer has opened in the support of China.

但在過去的57年裡，我認為美國企業的態度已經發生了轉變，他們現在已經不再是在支持中國了。

In fact, there's quite a lot of pushback is not that the opportunities are not there, but they see that China has moved forward and they want to see a more open environment and one where they get a bigger bite of the cherry.

其實，有不少人的推脫不是說機會沒有，而是他們看到中國已經向前發展了，他們希望看到一個更加開放的環境，希望看到一個能讓他們吃到更多櫻桃的環境。

I think it's understandable.

我想這是可以理解的。

China is a new position now, and you have to make a different, uh, set a different balance in your relationship with the world and what the world was prepared to grant you in an earlier phase and now has to be reworked.

中國現在是一個新的定位，你必須在你和世界的關係上做出不同的，呃，設定不同的平衡，世界在前一階段準備給予你的東西，現在必須重新調整。

And that's quite difficult for a country to accept, indeed, and it makes it quite difficult for a country like Singapore that sits in the middle of all of this to navigate.

而這對於一個國家來說，確實很難接受，這也讓像新加坡這樣身處其中的國家很難駕馭。

When you do try and navigate with these big economic and political powers, what are some of your key considerations?

當你真的嘗試著與這些經濟和政治大國周旋的時候，你的主要考慮因素是什麼？

First, what is in Singapore's interests?

首先，什麼符合新加坡的利益？

How do we make a rational assessment of that and make that judgment for ourselves and hold our people together, persuade them that this is the right thing to do.

我們如何對此做出理性的評估，併為自己做出這樣的判斷，並把我們的人團結起來，說服他們這樣做是正確的。

And generally it is that we want to be friends with both.

而一般來說，就是我們要和這兩個人做朋友。

But we have to find out the right way, our own way forward.

但我們必須找出正確的方法，自己的前進之路。

And from time to time there will be kerfuffles.

而且時常會發生爭吵。

And we have had kerfuffles with China once in a while, with America also once in a while And when that happens, you have to understand it cannot be helped between countries.

我們偶爾也會和中國發生爭執，和美國也會發生爭執，當這種情況發生的時候，你要明白，國家之間是沒有辦法的。

This happens.

這發生。

It doesn't mean where your opponent but it does mean that we have problems which need to be worked through.

這並不是說你的對手在哪裡，而是說我們有需要解決的問題。

And meanwhile, other areas where we can continue to work together.

同時，我們還可以在其他領域繼續合作。

And that is how we do it.

我們就是這樣做的。

Thank you, Prime Minister, for joining us on talking business Asia.

感謝總理參加我們的 "亞洲商務訪談"。

Thank you.

謝謝你了