Tourney up deals, trade wars, tit for tat tariffs.

巡迴交易，貿易戰，針鋒相對的關稅。

And it's hardly been a resounding success.

而且很難說是大獲成功。

Take the trade war with China.

以與中國的貿易戰為例。

Washington Slap tariffs on billions of dollars worth of Chinese products, but record amounts air still being spent on them.

華盛頓對價值數十億美元的中國產品徵收關稅，但創紀錄的金額仍然被花費在他們身上。

While American exports have only slightly improved, China's global trade surplus still skyrocketed to over $75 billion.

雖然美國的出口只是略有好轉，但中國的全球貿易順差仍飆升至750多億美元。

Exports to the U.

對美國的出口

S are still growing.

S仍在增長。

Ah, winner take all approach that divided the world into the United States and everyone else has made a lot of losers.

啊，贏家通吃的辦法，把世界抽成了美國，其他人都做了很多失敗者。

But all that's over now.

但現在一切都結束了。

The end of Trump's time marks the start of a golden age in cross border economic relations.

特朗普時代的結束，標誌著跨境經濟關係黃金時代的開始。

Well, maybe not quite.

嗯，也許不完全是。

And we'll tell you why.

我們會告訴你為什麼。

But first, let's hear from the man of the next four years, Joe Biden.

但首先，讓我們聽聽未來四年的人，喬-拜登的看法。

Here's what he had to say about international trade.

關於國際貿易，他是這樣說的。

We make up 25% the world's trading capacity of the economy in the world.

我們佔世界經濟貿易量的25%。

We need to be aligned with the other democracies another 25% or more so that we can set the rules of the road.

我們需要再與其他民主國家結盟25%或更多，以便我們能夠制定道路規則。

Instead of having China and others dictate outcomes, I want you to know that there are three things gonna happen if I'm elected one.

與其讓中國和其他國家決定結果，不如讓你們知道，如果我當選，有三件事會發生。

We're going to invest in American workers to make them more competitive.

我們要對美國工人進行投資，讓他們更具競爭力。

Number two, We're gonna make sure that labor is at the table and environmentalists are at the table and any trade deals we make.

第二，我們要確保勞工在談判桌上，環保主義者在談判桌上，以及我們所做的任何貿易交易。

And I'm not looking for punitive change.

我也不希望有懲罰性的改變。

The idea that we are poking our finger in the eyes of our friends and embracing autocrats makes no sense to me.

我們用手指戳著朋友們的眼睛，擁護專制者的想法在我看來毫無意義。

So here are the trade related takeaways.

那麼，以下是貿易相關的心得。

Biden wants to strengthen manufacturing and return to a more cooperative trading relationship with Democratic allies like the EU so they can band together and keep China in check while using trade to further the cause of environmental protection and workers Rights sounds great as to do lists go.

拜登希望加強制造業，並與歐盟等民主黨盟友恢復更多的合作貿易關係，這樣他們就可以聯合起來，在利用貿易進一步推動環境保護和工人權利的事業的同時，遏制中國，聽起來很不錯，因為要做的清單。

But here's the thing with talking about trade.

但談貿易的問題是這樣的。

It's never just about trade, As in the transfer of goods and services between markets, there are always complex geopolitical issues in the mix.

這從來都不僅僅是貿易的問題，就像市場之間的商品和服務的轉移一樣，總是有複雜的地緣政治問題在其中。

But let's not get lost.

但我們不要迷失方向。

We're going to take it step by step and get some expert help.

我們要一步一步來，找專家幫忙。

But first, let's look at why traditional allies that you and the US have found themselves at odds in the first place.

但首先，我們先來看看為什麼你和美國的傳統盟友會發現自己的矛盾。

As early as his first election campaign in 2016, Donald Trump has called the you unfair, citing the trade deficit at the start of his presidency.

早在2016年的第一次競選中，唐納德-特朗普就以其總統任期之初的貿易逆差為由，稱你不公平。

The amount of goods that you sold to the US was worth about $147 billion more than the goods the US sold to the U.

你賣給美國的商品金額比美國賣給美國的商品價值多出約1470億美元。

To punish that you for perceived trade abuses, Washington slapped the block with steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018.

為了懲罰那個你認為的貿易濫用，華盛頓在2018年用鋼鋁關稅打了一巴掌。

And here's a related accusation that the high share of you exports destroys American jobs.

而這裡有一個相關的指責，就是你們出口的高份額破壞了美國的就業。

Trump singled out German car makers in particular.

特朗普特別挑出了德國汽車製造商。

That's even though German automakers have long since stopped exporting their cars from Europe and instead produce them locally, employing thousands of American workers.

儘管德國汽車製造商早已停止從歐洲出口汽車，而是在當地生產，僱傭了成千上萬的美國工人。

Despite repeated threats, car tariffs never did materialize, But the tariffs that did didn't accomplish much on.

儘管屢次威脅，汽車關稅從未實現，但關稅的實現並沒有成就多少上。

While Trump's tariffs haven't really done much to shift the balance of trade between the EU and the US, there's obviously been damage done to the quality of the transatlantic relationship.

雖然特朗普的關稅並沒有真正改變歐盟和美國之間的貿易平衡，但顯然對跨大西洋關係的品質造成了損害。

I mean, remember this moment from 2017.

我的意思是，記得2017年的這一刻。

Thanks.

謝謝你

Thank you.

謝謝你了

Thank you.

謝謝你了

Thank you.

謝謝你了

Okay.

好吧，我知道了

Thank you, Fellow.

謝謝你，研究員。

Awkward does not even begin to describe that.

尷尬根本無法形容。

And that never would have happened under former President Barack Obama.

而這種情況在前總統奧巴馬手下是不會發生的。

Arguably, it won't happen under bite and either And that experts concur, is a good thing.

可以說，在咬合下不會發生，要麼而專家們也同意，是一件好事。

I think there will be, ah, lot more.

我想會有，啊，很多。

Um, you know, mending off relationships with previous allies such as the European Union, but also multilateral approaches for common problems at the W t o level, the World Trade Organization.

嗯，你知道，修補關係 與以前的盟友，如歐洲聯盟， 但也有多邊方法 在W T O級，世界貿易組織的共同問題。

So overall, a much more consistent of more predictable, um, presidency, um, in terms of trade and engagement.

是以，總體而言，一個更一致的更可預測的，嗯，總統任期，嗯，在貿易和接觸方面。

So are we going to start seeing a trading relationship coming out of the US?

那麼我們是不是要開始看到美國的貿易關係出來了？

Let's say, a trading relationship with the EU that's still adversarial, but more polite.

比方說，與歐盟的貿易關係，仍然是對抗性的，但更有禮貌。

Is that Is that what we're going to see?

這就是我們要看到的嗎？

Um, you phrase it really nicely.

嗯，你的措辭真的很好。

I think it is a little more than that.

我想這是一個比這更多的。

I don't think that we're going to be restricted to just rhetoric here or change in tone.

我認為我們在這裡不會僅僅侷限於言辭或語氣的變化。

I do think there are substantive things that we can change.

我確實認為有一些實質性的東西是我們可以改變的。

Okay, so at the very least, the tone is going to change under Biden which is a start.

好吧，至少，在拜登的上司下，基調會有所改變，這是一個開始。

But it's also important to realize that transatlantic trade tensions did not start with Donald Trump.

但也要意識到，跨大西洋貿易緊張局勢並非始於唐納德-特朗普。

In fact, the EU and the US have the longest running trade dispute in the world.

事實上，歐盟和美國是世界上持續時間最長的貿易爭端。

The Boeing Airbus aviation subsidies dispute has been going on for 16 years.

波音空客航空補貼之爭已經持續了16年。

The European Union and the United States claim that each other's airplane manufacturer is unfairly subsidized by the government, therefore skewing competition.

歐盟和美國聲稱對方的飛機制造商受到政府不公平的補貼，是以扭曲了競爭。

In fact, the first big move in trade policy after Biden's election win was announced was a further escalation of this conflict.

事實上，在拜登宣佈勝選後，貿易政策的第一個大動作就是將這一衝突進一步升級。

On November 9, the EU moved to start imposing tariffs on U.

11月9日，歐盟採取行動，開始對美國徵收關稅。

S imports worth $4 billion.

S進口價值40億美元。

The target list includes airplanes, wind spirits, frozen fish, tractors, suitcases and produce from onions two Cherries.

目標名單包括飛機、風靈、冷凍魚、拖拉機、行李箱和洋蔥兩個櫻桃的農產品。

Settling this issue can help enable the post Trump reset the transatlantic alliance needs, and experts say that after years of being undermined by a U.

解決這個問題可以幫助實現特朗普之後的跨大西洋聯盟所需要的重置，專家表示，在多年被美國破壞之後。

S.

S.

Government skeptical of multilateralism, reforming the World Trade Organization is going to be vital to recharging rules based trade among nations, especially if they want to stand together to keep another economic superpower in line.

政府對多邊主義持懷疑態度，改革世界貿易組織對國家間基於規則的貿易重新充電將是至關重要的，特別是如果他們想站在一起讓另一個經濟超級大國保持一致。

The big unknown isas China strategy because if he is willing to face the challenge head on.

最大的未知數是中國戰略，因為如果他願意直面挑戰。

That means being able to say maybe the multilateral trading system is going to look quite different from what it used thio, right?

這意味著能夠說，也許多邊貿易體系將與過去的面貌大不相同，對吧？

It may mean that we will have deep integration amongst like minded allies, but it will not be this universal membership system.

這可能意味著我們將在志同道合的盟友之間進行深度融合，但不會是這種普遍的會員制。

If China plays by the rules, then China is welcome.

如果中國按規則辦事，那麼中國是歡迎的。

But the rules will be set and they will be enforceable.

但規則是會制定的，也是會執行的。

H because we don't know what his China strategy is going to be.

H因為我們不知道他的中國戰略會是什麼。

We can't really say whether he will be able to go far enough in getting that reform that is much needed now.

我們真的不能說他是否能夠走得足夠遠，去完成現在急需的改革。

How to deal with China is a shared question for both the EU and the US They both want to be present in the Chinese market because it's huge, but they also want to get China to play by the rules.

如何與中國打交道，是歐盟和美國共同面臨的問題，他們都想在中國市場上佔有一席之地，因為中國市場巨大，但他們也想讓中國遵守規則。

That means respecting intellectual property and having the same conditions for European and American companies in China as the other way around.

這意味著尊重知識產權，對歐美企業在中國的發展有同樣的條件，反之亦然。

And they don't want China to have unchallenged technological dominance in the world.

而他們也不希望中國在世界範圍內擁有無可挑戰的技術主導地位。

They just haven't figured out how to achieve those aims yet together or separately.

他們只是還沒有想好如何共同或分別實現這些目標。

But at a time where multilateralism has supposedly floundered.

但在多邊主義本應陷入困境的時候。

China has since become a signatory to the world's largest free trade pact.

自此，中國成為全球最大的自由貿易協定的簽約國。

The regional comprehensive economic partnership involves 15 countries making up close to 30% of world trade.

區域全面經濟夥伴關係涉及15個國家，佔世界貿易的近30%。

The deal cuts as much as 90% of the tariffs on imports between its members within 20 years of coming into effect.

該協議生效後20年內，其成員之間的進口關稅削減幅度高達90%。

Now it's worth noting that the R.

現在值得注意的是，R。

C E P was first proposed in 2011, and that's quite a long time before the U.

C E P最早是在2011年提出的，這比U。

S China trade war even started.

斯中國貿易戰甚至開始。

So it's not as if one precipitated the other, but the U.

所以，並不是說一個人沉澱了另一個人，而是U。

S.

S.

And that you should sit up and take note anyway.

而你應該坐起來，並注意反正。

Rcep might not mean us much economically right now, but it means that these countries have agreed on a joint economic venture.

Rcep現在可能對我們的經濟意義不大，但這意味著這些國家已經達成了聯合經濟企業的協議。

It is a forum.

這是一個論壇。

It's a building block that these countries can and will build on right, so it's kind of it za stepping stone, if you will, and that is kind of the part that should worry the U and that should worry the United States.

它是這些國家可以並將建立在正確的基礎上的基石，所以它是一種它za墊腳石，如果你願意的話，這是一種應該擔心U的部分，應該擔心美國。

There's nothing in there about labor rights, uh, environmental standards.

裡面沒有關於勞工權利的內容，呃，環境標準。

It's much more transactional, and it's far from being completed.

它的事務性更強，它遠未完成。

There's still a lot of work that needs to be done.

還有很多工作要做。

But it you know, it shows, uh, certainly that the transatlantic community has not yet come up with a way to present itself as a feasible alternative to countries in Asia in the way that China has done.

但是，你知道，這表明，呃，當然，跨大西洋共同體還沒有想出一個辦法來展示自己作為一個可行的替代亞洲國家的方式，中國已經做到了。

Now, in case you haven't been paying attention, here it is again.

現在，如果你還沒有注意，它又來了。

The EU and the US have a host of issues to deal with before they can repair and eventually strengthened their relationship so that they can counter the outsized ambitions of China, which among other ways has cemented its international influence by signing a sweeping free trade deal with its neighbors and beyond.

歐盟和美國在修復並最終加強雙方關係之前，還有一系列問題需要處理，以便能夠對抗中國的巨大野心，而中國通過與鄰國及其他國家簽署全面的自由貿易協定等方式鞏固了其國際影響力。

I mean, that's manageable.

我的意思是，這是可控的。

But it is also, of course, a special time Joe Biden is gonna is inheriting a very, uh, you know, dramatic economic situation domestically.

但這也是一個特殊的時期 喬-拜登將繼承一個非常，呃，你知道的，戲劇性的國內經濟形勢。

He is therefore, because of the pandemic, going to be first and foremost a domestic oriented president.

是以，由於疫情的影響，他首先要做一個面向國內的總統。

Those who really hope that the Biden administration is gonna usher in a new era of closer transatlantic trade relations.

那些真正希望拜登政府能夠開創一個跨大西洋貿易關係更加緊密的新時代的人。

I think they're gonna have to be patient for the first couple of years.

我想他們在前幾年要有耐心。

So for now, it looks like America first will be followed by America First for now, but its allies have come knocking already anyway, hoping at the very least for America and friends sooner rather than later.

所以目前看來，美國第一暫時會跟著美國第一，但無論如何，它的盟友已經來敲門了，最起碼希望美國和朋友們早點來。

Sooner because while a golden age is hardly to be found in the time of a pandemic, there is a golden opportunity not to return to the system before Donald Trump.

更快，因為雖然在大流行的時候很難找到一個黃金時代，但在唐納德-特朗普之前，有一個黃金機會不回到系統。

But to make it better.

但為了讓它變得更好。

He won't make trade great again.

他不會再讓貿易變得偉大。

Alone.

獨自一人。

With allies.

與盟友。

Help, it can be greater than it Waas.

幫助，它可以比它華斯大。