It's a common trope in horror.

這是恐怖片中常見的套路。

In people, mutations cause disfigurement, aggression, even cannibalism.

在人的身上，突變會導致毀容、攻擊性，甚至吃人。

So it's not surprising that the conversation around mutation and the virus that causes Cove in 19 feel scary.

所以，在19中圍繞突變和導致庫夫的病毒的談話感到可怕也就不足為奇了。

The genetic mutations in real life aren't like the ones we see in movies, and on a viral level they could actually help us track and manage Cove in 19.

現實生活中的基因突變並不像我們在電影中看到的那樣，在病毒層面上，它們實際上可以幫助我們在19中追蹤和管理Cove。

So let's break down what mutations actually are and what they could mean for the virus we're facing right now.

所以我們來分析一下突變到底是什麼，以及它們對我們現在所面臨的病毒可能意味著什麼。

This is SARS cov to the virus that causes co vid 19.

這是SARS的cov到病毒，導致co vid 19。

It's a type of RNA virus, some of which mutate practically every time they replicate SARS.

這是一種RNA病毒，有些病毒幾乎每次複製SARS時都會發生變異。

Cov to is actually one of the rare RNA viruses that has a proof reading mechanism that slows down it's mutation rates.

Cov to其實是罕見的RNA病毒之一，它有一個校對閱讀機制，可以減緩它的突變率。

Um, despite that it has mutated and it will continue to mutate.

嗯，儘管它已經變異，而且還會繼續變異。

But that's not a scary as it sounds.

但這並不像聽起來那麼可怕。

It's basically a typo or a mistake that occurs like if you were writing an essay SARS cov twos.

基本上就是一個錯別字，或者像你寫一篇文章非典cov twos那樣出現的錯誤。

RNA is basically a blueprint for making mawr SARS cov twos, but viruses can't replicate themselves.

RNA基本上是製造mawr SARS cov twos的藍圖，但病毒不能自己複製。

They have toe hack into another organism cells and use their machinery to make new copies.

他們必須黑進另一個生物體的細胞，用他們的機器製造新的副本。

Here's how that process works.

下面是這個過程的原理。

The virus will let its genetic material free into the cytoplasm of the South, and then when that genetic material encounters, it's called a rival zone.

病毒會讓它的遺傳物質自由地進入南方的細胞質中，然後當這些遺傳物質遇到時，就叫對手區。

The ribosomes reads the viruses blueprint and starts building a new virus.

核糖體讀取病毒藍圖，開始構建新的病毒。

Then it'll read it three nucleic acids at a time, so we call it a coat on, and they're always three nucleic acids.

那麼它每次會讀出三個核酸，所以我們叫它上衣，它們總是三個核酸。

And a combination of three nucleic acids corresponds to a single amino acid.

而三個核酸的組合對應的是一個氨基酸。

String those amino acids together, and that's what creates the protein.

把這些氨基酸串在一起，就形成了蛋白質。

But occasionally the wrong nucleic acid will get added to the chain.

但偶爾會有錯誤的核酸被添加到鏈上。

This can sometimes but not always lead to changes down the line, making that offspring virus slightly different from its parent.

這有時會但並不總是導致下線的變化，使該後代病毒與母體略有不同。

Each amino acid or combination of amino acids is responsible for defining some characteristic of the virus.

每個氨基酸或氨基酸的組合都負責定義病毒的某些特徵。

Things like its shape, how infectious it is, what kind of organism it infects and the types of cells it targets.

比如它的形狀，它的傳染性如何，它感染的是什麼生物體，它針對的是什麼類型的細胞。

So a mutation or more likely multiple mutations has the potential to change any of those things.

所以，一個突變或者更有可能是多個突變，都有可能改變這些東西。

Theoretically, everything is fair game because these mutations are totally random events, but a mutation in a single virus Onley effects that one virus for mutation to stick.

理論上來說，一切都很公平，因為這些突變完全是隨機事件，但一個病毒的突變昂利影響那一個病毒的突變堅持。

It has to be able to be passed on to new generations and new hosts.

它必須能夠傳遞給新的世代和新的主人。

So something that messes with vital functions like the viruses.

所以，像病毒這樣的重要功能的東西，會被搞亂。

Ability to replicate means a dead end in terms of the viruses fitness, the probability of beneficial, neutral and harmful mutations shifts based on the environment it's in.

複製能力意味著病毒的適應性是個死結，有益的、中性的和有害的突變概率會根據它所處的環境而變化。

Let's say a virus is perfectly suited to its environment.

比方說，一個病毒完全適合它的環境。

The virus doesn't stop mutating, but it would be impossible for a mutation to make it even mawr perfect.

病毒不會停止變異，但要想讓病毒變異得更加完美，那是不可能的。

So the likelihood of mutations that are neutral or harmful for the virus are very high.

所以對病毒中性或有害的突變的可能性非常大。

It's impossible to say SARS cov to is perfectly suited for infecting humans, but since it can move from person to person so efficiently, experts don't think it's facing a lot of pressure to adapt.

不可能說SARS cov to完全適合感染人類，但既然它能如此高效地在人與人之間移動，專家認為它面臨的適應壓力並不大。

Plus, it's to most concerning characteristics how contagious it is and how harmful it could be a controlled by multiple genes.

另外，這是對最關心的特點，它的傳染性和危害性如何，它可能是一個由多個基因控制。

So in order to become more contagious, orm or harmful, the virus would need to undergo multiple beneficial mutations at exactly the right time.

所以，為了變得更有傳染性，或m或有害，病毒需要在恰好的時間發生多次有益的變異。

That's just not very likely.

這只是不太可能。

But Mary points out that even talking about mutations in terms of dangerous or worse could be subjective.

但瑪麗指出，即使用危險或更糟糕的方式談論突變，也可能是主觀的。

In my mind, what makes this outbreak or this epidemic especially concerning is that so many people who get infected with the virus don't really show symptoms, and that's why it's been able to spread so far.

在我看來，這次的疫情或者說這次的流行病之所以特別令人擔憂，就是因為很多人感染了病毒並沒有真正的症狀，這也是為什麼它能夠傳播到現在的原因。

But if there were to be a change that you know made the virus the infection much worse than people in some ways it easier to control.

但如果有一個變化，你知道使病毒的感染比人更糟糕在某些方面它更容易控制。

So there are all these different trade.

所以有這些不同的行業。

Also, we need to think about mutations can actually be pivotal when it comes to Fighting Cove in 19.

另外，我們需要思考的是，在19年的戰鬥灣中，突變其實可以起到關鍵性的作用。

Since we know what SARS COV twos genome looked like at the beginning of the outbreak, we contract when and where it changes.

既然我們知道SARS COV twos基因組在爆發之初是什麼樣子，那麼我們就承包它的變化時間和地點。

We actually saw that patients that we identified in Connecticut in the early stages of the outbreak here they're virus was more closely related to viruses that were collected and sequenced in Washington state, compared to in China or in Europe, for example.

我們實際上看到，我們在康涅狄格州確定的患者在這裡爆發的早期階段，他們的病毒更接近於在華盛頓州收集和測序的病毒，與中國或歐洲相比，例如。

So that actually tells us that we have domestic transmission going on, and we are getting all this information based off mutations that have arisen in the virus.

所以，這實際上告訴我們，我們有 國內傳播的情況下， 我們得到所有這些資訊 基於突變 已經出現在病毒。

There are a couple initiatives that air tracking this data globally right now, one being next strain unopened source project that tracks the spread and evolution of infectious diseases in real time.

現在全球有幾個舉措在空中追蹤這些數據，一個是下一個菌種未開放的源頭項目，實時追蹤傳染病的傳播和演變。

Right now, it's focused on Cove in 19.

現在，它集中在19的庫夫。

Researchers can use that information to answer questions like How fast is it mutating?

研究人員可以利用這些資訊來回答這樣的問題：它的突變速度有多快？

Not very.

不是很好

Is it spreading by air travel?

是否通過航空旅行傳播？

Definitely, especially early on.

肯定的，尤其是早期。

Will it mutate in a way that makes a potential vaccine ineffective?

它會不會變異，使潛在的疫苗無效？

Like the flu?

喜歡感冒嗎？

People who designed vaccines think about this.

設計疫苗的人都會考慮這個問題。

All Like this is something that's factored into vaccine design.

所有像這樣的事情，在疫苗設計中都有考慮到。

So, typically vaccines.

所以，一般疫苗。

They use these highly conserved targets so they'll pick some part of the virus that is not tolerant.

他們使用這些高度保守的目標，所以他們會選擇病毒中不耐受的一些部分。

Teoh A lot of change or after really any change, it can't really mutate away from the vaccine without, you know, compromising some other really crucial element of its lifecycle.

Teoh很多變化或真正的任何變化後，它不能真正變異離開疫苗，而不，你知道，損害其他一些真正關鍵的元素的生命週期。

Plus, the flu is unique in the way it's genetic material is structured.

另外，流感的遺傳物質結構方式很獨特。

It's an RNA virus to, but its genome is segmented.

它是一種RNA病毒到，但它的基因組是分段的。

The coronavirus genome is not.

冠狀病毒基因組不。

The segments translate to a bunch of different proteins, so every time the body sees a new protein, it has to make an entirely different set of antibody specifically designed to fight it.

段翻譯成一堆不同的蛋白質，所以每當身體看到一個新的蛋白質，就必須製造一套完全不同的抗體，專門用來對抗它。

We don't know exactly how often a new vaccine for Cove in 19 will be necessary.

我們不知道19年庫夫到底多久需要注射一次新疫苗。

But we do know the virus doesn't have this same flexibility when it comes to proteins.

但我們知道，當涉及到蛋白質時，病毒並不具備這種靈活性。

And experts have been looking at another coronavirus, the one that causes SARS.

而專家們一直在研究另一種冠狀病毒，也就是導致SARS的病毒。

To get an idea of how we might handle this one immunity to that virus last roughly 2 to 3 years.

要知道我們可能會處理這一個對該病毒的免疫力大概持續2到3年。

Since it and the new coronavirus share a significant amount of genetic material, this could be a good estimate.

由於它和新冠狀病毒共享大量的遺傳物質，這可能是一個很好的估計。

If that's the case, then a vaccine should last Justus long since the virus is mutating so slowly, and that's really the point.

如果是這樣的話，那麼疫苗應該可以持續賈斯德斯很久，因為病毒變異得很慢，這才是真正的重點。

The viral ancestor of SARS cov to did have to mutate in order to jump from animals to people.

SARS的病毒祖先cov到確實有變異，以便從動物跳到人。

But it most likely happened very gradually with a Siris of mutations over the course of many, many years.

但這很可能是在很多很多年的過程中，隨著Siris的突變逐漸發生的。

Time scale is really what matters here.

時間尺度才是這裡真正重要的。

At the end of the day, we need to be thinking about how best we can control this outbreak in the U.

最後，我們需要考慮的是如何最好地控制這次美國的疫情。

S.

S.

And then also around the world, because if there's no ongoing transmission, there's no mutations, and then we really not to worry.

然後還在世界各地， 因為如果沒有持續的傳播， 有沒有突變， 然後我們真的不擔心。