Believed to be the father of the Islamic republic's military nuclear program, Molson Factories a Day was assassinated last week in a hell of gunfire and explosives.

被認為是伊斯蘭共和國軍事核計劃之父的莫爾森工廠一天上週在槍林彈雨的地獄中被暗殺。

Iran has blamed Israel and an exiled Iranian group thought government in Tehran has said that it will seek revenge for Pharisees death in due time.

伊朗指責以色列和流亡的伊朗團體以為政府在德黑蘭說，它將在適當的時候為法利賽人的死亡尋求報復。

Iran says it will not be provoked into retaliating.

伊朗表示不會被挑釁報復。

But can the regime in Tehran strike back on an equal level?

但德黑蘭政權能否進行同等程度的反擊？

Analysts say it's very, very unlikely.

分析師說，這是非常非常不可能的。

But I think that Iran is not a capability toe answer proportionally to this act like the same happen with Qasem Soleimani killing It was very difficult for Iran to kill us.

但我認為，伊朗沒有能力對這一行為做出相應的迴應，就像卡西姆-蘇萊曼尼被殺一樣，伊朗很難殺死我們。

General on this time is very difficult for Iran to kill Israeli representative of the Israeli nuclear military program, so it's very difficult to answer the same level, so they will try made me toe answer another way.

一般在這個時候對伊朗來說是很難殺死以色列代表的以色列核軍事計劃，所以很難回答同級別的問題，所以他們會嘗試讓我用另一種方式來回答。

But the timing, once again is not the best time, and for more now I'm joined by Trita Parsi.

但這個時機，又不是最好的時機，現在更多的是由Trita Parsi加入我的行列。

He's executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft it's good to see you again.

他是昆西學院負責任國家事務的執行副院長 很高興再次見到你。

Trade.

貿易：

I wanna just throw this to you.

我想把這個扔給你

Um, Iran says that the murder weapon or murder technology that was used was made in Israel.

嗯，伊朗說，使用的凶器或謀殺技術是以色列製造的。

So how realistic is a retaliation by Iran against Israel?

那麼伊朗對以色列的報復有多現實呢？

How realistic is that at this point?

目前來看，這有多現實？

Well, as the previous analysts mentioned, the Iranians most likely do not have the capacity of being able to respond proportionately, meaning that they would target on Israeli nuclear scientists inside of Israel, for instance.

好吧，就像前面的分析家提到的，伊朗人很可能沒有能力能夠做出相應的反應，也就是說，他們會把目標放在以色列境內的以色列核科學家身上，比如說。

The broader problem, though, is that any retaliation by Iran, proportionate or not proportionate Iranian would have great difficulty doing something that would not escalate into a broader conflict.

但更廣泛的問題是，伊朗的任何報復，無論相不相稱伊朗人都很難做到不升級為更廣泛的衝突。

And it's quite clear that for the last 23 years, the Iranians have been very careful not to give the Trump administration or the Netanyahu government a pretext for a broader war.

而且很明顯，在過去的23年裡，伊朗人一直非常小心，不給特朗普政府或內塔尼亞胡政府一個更廣泛的戰爭藉口。

But it does not mean that they cannot retaliate in indirect ways.

但這並不意味著他們不能以間接的方式進行報復。

And we've seen that in the past that the Iranians have found as symmetric ways of exacting a price in Israel when it does assassinate Iranian scientists or conduct other types of attacks against Iran.

我們已經看到，在過去，當以色列暗殺伊朗科學家或對伊朗進行其他類型的攻擊時，伊朗人已經找到了對稱的方法，向以色列索取代價。

I'm wondering what this assassination means for us president elect Joe Biden's hopes of reviving the Iran nuclear deal.

我想知道這起暗殺事件對我們的當選總統喬・拜登重啟伊朗核協議的希望意味著什麼？

It certainly is not helpful.

這當然是無濟於事的。

And in fact, the consensus is increasingly that this is something that the Netanyahu government did precisely because it wanted to undermine Netanya.

而事實上，越來越多的人都認為，這正是內塔尼亞胡政府想要破壞內塔尼亞的做法。

Biden's ability to be able to re enter the nuclear deal and restart negotiations with Iran.

拜登能夠重新加入核協議，重啟與伊朗的談判。

I think it's important for the viewers to keep in mind that at the end of the day, uh, that really worry that Netanyahu has is not that Iran would have a pathway to a nuclear weapon.

我認為重要的是，觀眾要記住，在一天結束時，呃，內塔尼亞胡真正擔心的是，伊朗不會有核武器的途徑。

It's that Iran would have a pathway to Washington, and that's what this assassination is aimed at preventing.

就是伊朗會有一條通往華盛頓的通道，這也是這次暗殺的目的。

And what about the role of Israel in this there?

那麼以色列在其中的作用如何呢？

There has been talk over the weekend by some analysts is saying that Israel may be forced this assassination in order to force the hand of the next president.

週末有一些分析人士說，以色列可能是為了逼迫下一任總統出手，才會進行這次暗殺。

Joe Biden.

喬-拜登

Uh, how do you see that?

呃，你怎麼看？

I believe certainly, I mean the the Israelis air trying to create a many obstacles as possible for the by the administration to be able to restart negotiations with Iran on we have seen in the past that assassinations of this kind tended to take place at sensitive moments where there waas a likelihood of some form of a diplomatic breakthrough.

我當然相信，我的意思是，以色列人的空氣試圖創造一個儘可能多的障礙，由政府能夠重啟與伊朗的談判，我們已經看到在過去，這種暗殺往往發生在敏感的時刻，有waas的可能性的某種形式的外交突破。

They did not happen at moments in which a nassan ation of this kind would have really set back the nuclear program on guy.

在這種情況下，它們並沒有發生，因為這種情況下，如果發生了這種情況，就會使核計劃真正倒退。

Think another aspect that comes through all of this is that it's very unlikely that the Trump administration was not either giving a green light or some support for this.

認為這一切的另一個方面是，特朗普政府很不可能不是開綠燈，就是給予一些支持。

But Netanyahu must also have calculated that Biden does not have the political will to punish Netanyahu for sabotaging his prospects for diplomacy.

但內塔尼亞胡一定也算準了拜登沒有政治意願來懲罰內塔尼亞胡破壞他的外交前景。

That's a perception Netanyahu seems to have only by that can change that perception.

這是內塔尼亞胡似乎只有這樣才能改變這種看法。

You know, it's interesting that the perception is key here.

你知道，這很有趣，觀念是這裡的關鍵。

What about Tehran waiting out and holding its tongue and waiting until Joe Biden is the US president?

那德黑蘭就等著忍氣吞聲，等到喬-拜登成為美國總統呢？

Do you think that the the will the force of will is in Tehran to wait until January 20th?

你認為意志力在德黑蘭要等到1月20日嗎？

Uh, it's going to be tremendously difficult, because from their perspective, they've already shown a tremendous amount of restraint in regards to other attacks that already have taken place in Iran, most likely conducted by the Israelis.

呃，這將是非常困難的，因為從他們的角度來看，他們已經表現出了極大的剋制，對於已經在伊朗發生的其他攻擊，很可能是由以色列人進行的。

Eso you can definitely sense that there is an increased anger there in which the argument off those who are arguing against restraint is that it's precisely because of Iran's restraint.

所以，你絕對可以感覺到，那裡的憤怒在增加，那些反對剋制的人的論點是，正是因為伊朗的剋制。

That these attacks have continued restraint has begotten mawr assassinations, whereas if the Iranians were to respond really harshly to this, the calculation and Israel would be changing.

這些攻擊持續剋制，已經生出了毛爾暗殺，而如果伊朗人真的對此做出嚴厲的迴應，那麼計算和以色列就會改變。

But the problem is, if they do that, then the region would likely be at the brink of war.

但問題是，如果他們這樣做，那麼該地區很可能會處於戰爭的邊緣。

Trita Parsi with the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft Treaty.

Trita Parsi與昆西負責任的國策研究所條約。

It's good to see you again.

很高興再次見到你。

We appreciate your time and your insights tonight.

我們感謝你今晚的時間和你的見解。

Thank you.

謝謝你了

Thank you so much for having me.

非常感謝你邀請我。