Now that's a more recent development.

現在這是一個比較新的發展。

So when a trade dispute escalates into a militarized conflict like the Opium wars of the mid 18 hundreds, that's a trade war.

所以，當貿易爭端升級為軍事化衝突，比如18世紀中期的鴉片戰爭，那就是貿易戰。

What's been happening between the U.

美國之間發生了什麼。

S.

S.

And China is fortunately not that which is not to say that the consequences of it so far have not been profound.

而中國幸好不是，這並不是說到目前為止它的後果不深刻。

China will lose 1% equivalent to GDP and US side threat to be smaller than 1% point these two countries that the biggest losers from the bilateral trade attention.

中國將損失相當於GDP的1%，而美方威脅要小於1%點，這兩個國家即是雙邊貿易關注的最大輸家。

But when two global superpowers face off like this, it's never just about them were interested in understanding the dispute in broader terms and figuring out if both China and the US are losing who's winning, and what does it all mean for the future of global trade in a post pandemic world?

但當兩個全球超級大國這樣對峙的時候，絕不僅僅是他們有興趣從更廣泛的角度來理解這場爭端，並弄清楚如果中美兩國都輸了誰贏了，這一切對後流行病世界的全球貿易未來意味著什麼？

If we're looking at action and not bravado, most agree, The trade dispute kicked off on July 6 2018 the US imposed to 25% tariff on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports, China reacted and kind on the very same day.

如果我們看的是行動而不是虛張聲勢，大多數人都同意，貿易爭端在2018年7月6日拉開序幕美國對價值340億美元的中國進口商品徵收到25%的關稅，中國在當天就做出了反應和善意。

This tit for tat repeated again the following month.

這種針鋒相對的情況在下個月又重演。

But come September, China was not keeping up.

但到了9月，中國卻沒有跟上。

Over the course of the next year, the U.

在接下來的一年時間裡，美國。

S would raise tariffs and China would not retaliate.

斯會提高關稅，中國不會報復。

And then, in September of 2019 a de escalation had begun.

而後，在2019年9月，一場de升級已經開始。

They want to make a deal.

他們想做個交易。

Frankly, they want to make a deal a lot more than Ideo.

坦白說，他們比Ideo更想做一筆交易。

By February of 2020 the murky Phase one agreement went into effect.

到2020年2月，朦朧的一期協議生效。

We know it kept in place the tariffs on imports from China, which were still more than six times higher than before the dispute began.

我們知道，它保持了對來自中國的進口商品徵收關稅，而這些關稅仍比爭端開始前高出6倍多。

China also committed to buying an additional 200 billion dollars worth of U.

中國還承諾再購買價值2000億美元的美。

S exports targets.

S出口目標。

That would be pretty much impossible to meet.

這就很不可能滿足了。

This is where things stood until the Covad 19 pandemic happened and changed everything.

這就是事情的原點，直到科瓦德19號大流行發生，改變了一切。

Around a quarter of all U.

約有四分之一的美國。

S imports came from China before the dispute began.

爭端開始前，S的進口來自中國。

That's a smudge, as number two and number three import partners Mexico and Canada combined.

這是一個汙點，作為第二號和第三號進口夥伴墨西哥和加拿大的總和。

While the share of Chinese imports dropped during the Dispute cove, it brought Chinese imports back up to practically pre tariff levels this has everything to do with the types of goods that became necessary during the pandemic.

雖然在爭端灣期間中國進口份額有所下降，但卻使中國進口回到了實際上的關稅前水準這與大流行期間變得必要的商品種類有關。

Like PPE and home office equipment, For example, the category of textiles that includes facemasks has risen tenfold since the beginning of 2020.

像個人防護裝備和家庭辦公設備，例如，包括口罩在內的紡織品類別從2020年開始增長了10倍。

But with Chinese products becoming more expensive overall, what occurred Pre Cove?

但隨著中國產品整體價格越來越高，發生了什麼預庫？

It is actually still playing out.

其實還是在玩。

And it's something economists call trade redirection iPod and iPhones and gadgets now produced by using very complicated, uh, tightly connected, interconnected supply chain network.

而這是經濟學家稱之為貿易重定向的iPod和iPhone以及現在使用非常複雜的，呃，緊密相連的，相互連接的供應鏈網絡生產的小工具。

So now Chinese products and exports to the US say smartphone export decline.

所以現在中國產品和出口美國說智能手機出口下降。

But demand in U.

但需求在U。

S.

S.

Markets still exists.

市場仍然存在。

So those other countries in Asia we can produce a smartphone and also export to the U.

所以亞洲其他那些國家我們可以生產智能手機，也可以出口到美國。

S market.

S市場。

This is what we call a trade redirection effect.

這就是我們所說的交易重定向效應。

So which countries have benefited the most from trade redirection pre cove it?

那麼，哪些國家從貿易轉軌前期受益最大呢？

Mexico, which boosted its status, is one of the US's biggest trading partners over the course of the dispute.

在爭端過程中，墨西哥的地位得到提升，是美國最大的貿易伙伴之一。

But after nosedive, Canada to.

但在跌跌不休之後，加拿大以。

But some countries have been able to hold onto their winnings even during the crisis, and they are Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam and South Korea, and of that group, the country who got the biggest jolt to its GDP was Vietnam.

但有些國家即使在危機中也能堅持贏利，它們是馬來西亞、臺灣、越南和韓國，在這批國家中，GDP受到衝擊最大的國家是越南。

Vietnam was really well positioned for this moment.

越南此刻的定位真的很好。

Not only is it China's neighbor, but it was already a leading manufacturer, making shoes in sportswear for Nike and Adidas since the nineties.

它不僅是中國的鄰居，而且早在九十年代就已經是領先的製造商，為耐克和阿迪達斯生產運動服裝的鞋子。

And as the chief source of phones for the world's largest phone producer, Samsung.

而作為全球最大的手機生產商三星的主要手機來源。

Just take a look at the change in Vietnam's US imports between 2017 and 2019.

看看2017年到2019年越南對美國進口的變化就知道了。

Compared to China, cell phones and computers, furniture, clothing and shoes.

與中國相比，手機和電腦、傢俱、服裝和鞋子。

There's been an enormous shift in demand, one that has not gone unnoticed the last six months.

需求發生了巨大的變化，這種變化在過去的半年裡並沒有被忽視。

And the acceleration.

還有加速度。

I would say it's about 2 to 3 times more than the last 24 months.

我想說，這比過去24個月多了2到3倍。

So, um, you know the trade, uh, challenge.

所以，嗯，你知道貿易，呃，挑戰。

Just give people more motivations to do it faster.

只要給人們更多的動力，讓人們做得更快。

Verses conservatively.

詩句保守。

But Vietnam success derives not only from its expansion is an exporter to the U.

但越南的成功不僅源於其擴張是對美國的出口國。

S.

S.

But also is a recipient of something called foreign direct investment, particularly from Chinese companies looking to dodge the tariffs.

但同時也是一種所謂的外國直接投資的接受者，特別是來自中國企業希望躲避關稅的投資。

Your help.

你的幫助。

Can you let your daughter go without the whole system?

你能讓你的女兒離開整個系統嗎？

So where do things go from here?

那麼，事情的發展方向是什麼？

Is Vietnam truly a Cinderella story in a globalized economy.

越南是否真的是全球化經濟中的灰姑娘故事。

It's just never that simple.

只是從來沒有那麼簡單。

This is only a partial impact.

這只是部分影響。

So China US three attention may feel, well, global, uh, economy and trade throwing down.

所以中美三國關注可能會覺得，嗯，全球，呃，經濟貿易扔下來了。

And that over, or a global economics going down is a bad news for even country like that.

而這一結束，或者說全球經濟下滑，對這樣的國家來說也是一個壞消息。

Now, although smaller and late comer economies like those in the Asia Pacific region are making gains, trade disputes like this one are just bad business, Yeah.

現在，雖然像亞太地區的那些小經濟體和後進經濟體都在取得收益，但像這種貿易爭端就是壞生意，是啊。