Artillery attacks, airstrikes, fighter jets coming down, civilian buildings being damaged and over 100 killed.

炮擊，空襲，戰鬥機墜落，民用建築被毀，100多人死亡。

A historic dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia has reignited on a watching world is asking, can full scale war be avoided?

阿塞拜疆和亞美尼亞之間的歷史性爭端重新燃起，在觀望的世界裡，人們在問，全面戰爭能避免嗎？

Russia, the U.

俄羅斯、美。

S.

S.

And France A calling for an immediate ceasefire, but they know ceasefire or not Fundamentally, this is being driven by a long standing dispute that was never resolved.

而法國A要求立即停火，但他們知道停火與否從根本上說，這是由一個長期存在的爭端推動的，而這個爭端從來沒有得到解決。

And this is why here on the map, you can see Armenia to the west, Azerbaijan to the east.

這就是為什麼在地圖上，你可以看到亞美尼亞在西邊，阿塞拜疆在東邊。

Both were part of the Soviet Union before it disintegrated in the early nineties.

兩者在九十年代初蘇聯解體前都是蘇聯的一部分。

And right where we see the to meet is an en clave called Nagorno Karabakh.

而就在我們看到見面的地方，是一個叫納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫的恩克洛夫。

In the eyes of the international community, it's part of Azerbaijan, but its population is now almost entirely ethnic Armenian.

在國際社會眼中，它是阿塞拜疆的一部分，但其人口現在幾乎完全是亞美尼亞族。

In the late eighties and early nineties, Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a war over Nagorno power back and despite the U.

在80年代末90年代初，亞美尼亞和阿塞拜疆為爭奪納戈爾諾政權背水一戰，儘管美國。

N.

N.

Calling on Armenia to withdraw its troops.

呼籲亞美尼亞撤出其部隊，

By 1994 Azerbaijan had lost Nagorno Karabakh, declared independence on became part of Armenia in orbit name so 26 years on.

到1994年，阿塞拜疆失去了納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫，宣佈獨立，成為亞美尼亞的一部分，至今已有26年。

Why is the escalation happening now?

為什麼現在會升級？

Well, the languages hardened.

好了，語言硬了。

He's Azerbaijan's president.

他是阿塞拜疆的總統。

We only have one condition, he says.

他說，我們只有一個條件。

Armenian armed forces must unconditionally, fully and immediately leave our lands.

亞美尼亞武裝部隊必須無條件地、全面地、立即離開我們的土地。

Armenia has no intention of agreeing.

亞美尼亞不打算同意。

Here's its president.

這是它的總裁。

What they are trying to do is tow force Armenians out off that off the land that they historically lived, even before the other Bejan as as a as a republic existed.

他們想做的是迫使亞美尼亞人離開他們歷史上生活過的土地，甚至在其他貝揚共和國存在之前。

So but in my vocabulary is called ethnic cleansing.

所以，但在我的詞彙裡，這叫種族清洗。

On this intensification could be explained by looking internally on externally.

關於這種強化可以用從內部看外部來解釋。

First, domestic politics in Armenia.

首先，亞美尼亞的國內政治。

This has been happening.

這種情況一直在發生。

Unfortunately, Armenian prime minister, I think, has been forced by his own domestic politics to back away from the framework agreement that had been negotiated for years between his country and Azerbaijan.

不幸的是，我認為，亞美尼亞總理受其國內政治的影響，被迫背棄了亞美尼亞與阿塞拜疆之間談判多年的框架協議。

And then this is the situation in Azerbaijan with the social problems with the falling price of oil, with the reforms that are needed in the economy, the war probably is the best possible outcome to make sure that public rallies around the leader as well as that Azerbaijan's booming oil sector has given it added income on influence on def.

然後，這是阿塞拜疆的情況，社會問題與石油價格下跌，經濟需要改革，戰爭可能是最好的結果，以確保公眾團結在領導人周圍，以及阿塞拜疆蓬勃發展的石油行業給它增加收入的影響上的防禦。

Domestic politics is one vital factor.

國內政治是一個重要因素。

The differing approaches of Turkey and Russia is another.

土耳其和俄羅斯的不同做法是另一個。

Turkey has been vociferous in its support of Azerbaijan.

土耳其一直大張旗鼓地支持阿塞拜疆。

Here's its president Booth path to a lasting peace requires the withdrawal of Armenians from every inch of his eerie land they are occupying.

這是它的總統布斯通往持久和平的道路，需要亞美尼亞人從他們所佔領的每一寸詭異的土地上撤離。

The constant efforts to slander Turkey will not save the Armenian government, and this is part of a broader pattern.

不斷詆譭土耳其的努力不會拯救亞美尼亞政府，這是一個更廣泛的模式的一部分。

Turkey's willingness to oppose major powers is on show from Libya to northern Syria to gas drilling in the eastern med to migration into Europe and now Azerbaijan.

從利比亞到敘利亞北部，到地中海東部的天然氣鑽井，再到移民到歐洲，以及現在的阿塞拜疆，土耳其反對大國的意願都表現出來了。

To, in this case, France's unimpressed accusing Turkey of warlike messages which have removed Azerbaijan's inhibitions and certainly Azerbaijan's bean, emboldened by Turkey's support.

到，在這種情況下，法國不以為然地指責土耳其的戰爭資訊，這已經消除了阿塞拜疆的抑制，當然阿塞拜疆也豆，在土耳其的支持下，有恃無恐。

Equally important, as reported by Reuters here, has been Russia seeking to mediate rather than overtly taking sides, and given Russia has a military base in Armenia, that too, will embolden Azerbaijan.

同樣重要的是，正如路透社在此報道的那樣，俄羅斯一直在尋求調解，而不是公開站隊，鑑於俄羅斯在亞美尼亞有一個軍事基地，這也將使阿塞拜疆有恃無恐。

But all of those factors together on whatever the rights and wrongs, you arrive at a moment of high risk.

但所有這些因素加在一起，無論對錯，你都會到達一個高風險的時刻。

Mohammad Ayoub of Michigan State University argues.

密歇根州立大學的穆罕默德-阿尤布認為。

There are too many external fingers in this caucus pie.

這個核心派的外指太多。

It has the potential to turn into a major regional conflict, and there's one more worrying dimension to this today, France has confirmed jihadist fighters from Syria have bean located in the Gorno Cara.

它有可能演變成一場重大的地區衝突，今天還有一個令人擔憂的方面，法國已經證實來自敘利亞的聖戰分子已經豆位於戈爾諾-卡拉。

Back as president Macron puts it.

回如總統馬克龍所說。

I think this is a very serious new fact, which changes the situation in Syria itself, provides evidence of the catastrophic consequences of a local conflict becoming a far greater proxy battle.

我認為這是一個非常嚴重的新事實，它改變了敘利亞本身的局勢，提供了一個局部衝突成為更大的代理戰的災難性後果的證據。

France and others are desperate to avoid this here.

法國等國極力避免在此。

For all of these reasons, this has already become about stopping the conflict now and stopping its return.

由於所有這些原因，這已經變成了現在就停止衝突，並阻止其迴歸。

The first part appears likely if Russia, France and the US what a ceasefire Well, you wouldn't bet against it.

第一部分似乎很有可能，如果俄羅斯、法國和美國停火的話，你不會反對的。

But that doesn't resolve the core issue that the world considers Nagorno Karabakh part of Azerbaijan, and yet Armenia controls it.

但這並沒有解決核心問題，即世界認為納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫是阿塞拜疆的一部分，而亞美尼亞卻控制著它。