symptoms of pneumonia and tested positive for Covid-19.

肺炎症狀，並對Covid-19檢測呈陽性。

This is Domingo. But not just him. This light represents 500 people who have been infected

這是多明戈但不只是他這盞燈代表著500個被感染的人。

with the novel coronavirus in New York City. By May 16th, there were nearly 190,000 known

與新型冠狀病毒在紐約市。到5月16日，已知有近19萬名

cases of Covid-19 there. Health officials report these numbers every

那裡的Covid-19病例。衛生官員每年報告這些數字。

day, in cities and countries around the world, but they know that they're incomplete. Because

日，在世界各地的城市和國家，但他們知道，他們是不完整的。因為

Covid testing has been like a narrow flashlight in a dark room. Anything we're not pointing

Covid的測試就像黑暗房間裡的窄小手電筒。任何我們沒有指向的東西

the light at, we can't see.  But now researchers are collecting data that

光在，我們看不到。 但現在研究人員正在收集數據

can capture the pandemic more fully, to try to get a better handle on just how much we've lost.

可以更全面地捕捉到這場大流行，試圖更好地掌握我們的損失到底有多大。

Domingo Vega died on April 16th at the age

多明戈-維加於4月16日去世，享年12歲。

of 45. Originally from Mexico, he came to the US when he was 16, and worked in restaurant

的45歲。他來自墨西哥，16歲時就來到美國，在餐廳工作。

kitchens since then, eventually launching his own business with two locations in Brooklyn.

自此，他開始了自己的廚房，最終在布魯克林開設了兩家分店。

He and his wife had three children.  Domingo was one of 20,720 New Yorkers whose

他和妻子有三個孩子。 多明戈是20,720名紐約人中的一員，他的名字是 "多明戈"。

lives were cut short by the coronavirus as of May 16th, according to the city's count.

據該市統計，截至5月16日，因冠狀病毒而縮短的生命。

Each blue light here represents 500 known deaths from Covid-19 and 500 families who

這裡的每一盞藍燈都代表500個已知死於Covid-19的人和500個家庭

don't need data to tell them how dangerous this disease can be.

不需要數據來告訴他們這種疾病有多危險。

But when it comes to the statistics, that question -- how deadly is Covid-19 -- has

但說到統計數字，這個問題 -- -- Covid-19有多致命 -- -- 有

been difficult to answer. The relationship between the known deaths

一直難以回答。已知的死亡人數之間的關係

and the known cases is called the “case fatality rate.”

和已知病例稱為 "病例死亡率"。

At this point in New York City, 1 out of 9 people known to have Covid-19 have died.

此時在紐約市，已知有Covid-19的9人中就有1人死亡。

That's 11 percent. But that rate varies drastically across cities

也就是11%。但這個比例在不同的城市有很大的差異。

and countries. It was over 12% in Sweden in mid May but less than a percent in Iceland.

和國家。5月中旬，瑞典超過12%，但冰島不到%。

It also changes over time. For the US, it dropped down to 1% near the end of March before

它也會隨著時間的推移而變化。就美國而言，在臨近3月底的時候降到了1%，然後才

climbing back up as people who tested positive several weeks prior ended up dying.

攀升回來，因為幾周前檢測呈陽性的人最後都死了。

When the case fatality rate varies this much, it's saying a lot more about these countries

當案件的死亡率相差這麼多的時候，就說明這些國家的問題了

than about the disease itself.  For example, deaths may be higher in places where

而不是疾病本身。 例如，在以下地方，死亡人數可能會更高。

the health system is overwhelmed  or where the population is older. We know

衛生系統不堪重負，或者人口年齡較大。我們知道

that Covid-19 is more deadly in seniors, and especially those over 75.

Covid-19對老年人，尤其是75歲以上的老年人更致命。

But also, on the other side of the fraction, the rate reflects how much testing is happening.

但同時，在分數的另一面，速率也反映了測試的多少。

If a country is aware of more non-fatal cases, their case fatality rate is lower.

如果一個國家知道的非死亡病例較多，其病例死亡率就會降低。

So this statistic isn't all that useful because we know most countries are missing

所以這個統計並不是那麼有用，因為我們知道大多數國家都沒有。

cases. We're also missing deaths. According to an estimate by the New York Times,

案件。我們還漏掉了死亡病例。根據紐約時報的估計。

there have been thousands of deaths that weren't included in the official count for New York

有數千人的死亡不包括在紐約的官方統計中。

City.  We don't know for sure if it was coronavirus

市。 我們不知道是否是冠狀病毒。

that killed them. But here's what we do know.

殺死他們。但我們知道的是

If you look at 2017, 2018, and 2019, and chart the average number of deaths per week, the

如果從2017年、2018年和2019年的情況來看，並繪製出平均每週的死亡人數，那麼。

line looks like this. It includes deaths from all from all causes.

線是這樣的。它包括所有因各種原因造成的死亡。

For 2020 so far, that line of weekly deaths looks like this. The area above the typical

2020年至今，這條周死線是這樣的。典型的上方區域

level is called “excess deaths” by researchers. And it gives us a fuller picture of the cost

水準被研究人員稱為 "超額死亡"。它讓我們更全面地瞭解了成本的情況

of this pandemic. We're seeing excess deaths in many places

這種流行病的。我們看到很多地方的死亡人數過多

that have suffered big outbreaks.  In each case the excess deaths are higher

的大爆發。 在每種情況下，超額死亡人數都較高。

than the official count of Covid deaths.  It includes people who may have died from

比官方統計的Covid死亡人數要多。 它包括可能死於

other causes but who were unable or unwilling to access medical care because of the pandemic.

因其他原因而無法或不願接受醫療服務的人。

But it also includes some people with coronavirus who may have died at home or care facilities,

但它也包括一些可能在家中或護理機構死亡的冠狀病毒患者。

or were never diagnosed. As this data comes in, it shows that in some

或從未被診斷出來。隨著這些數據的出現，它表明在某些情況下。

places, the pandemic is even more deadly than we thought.

在一些地方，疫情比我們想象的更加致命。

But the virus itself may be less deadly. Because we're also learning that a lot more people

但病毒本身可能不那麼致命。因為我們也瞭解到更多的人...

have been infected than the official tallies show.

比官方統計數字顯示的感染。

Health officials in New York have taken small blood samples of people at grocery stores

紐約的衛生官員在雜貨店採集了人們的少量血液樣本。

to check for Covid antibodies. This is called a “seroprevalence survey” and it helps

以檢查Covid抗體。這被稱為 "血清流行率調查"，它有助於

capture the substantial number of people who didn't know they ever had coronavirus.

捕獲大量不知道自己曾經感染過冠狀病毒的人。

So far these tests show that around 20% of people in New York City tested positive for

到目前為止，這些測試顯示，紐約市約有20%的人在測試中呈陽性。

antibodies that indicate a previous Covid infection.

抗體，表明以前有Covid感染。

If those shoppers are representative of the city's population, that would mean there

如果這些購物者代表了該市的人口，那就意味著有了

were more than one and a half million Covid-19 cases in the city by early May.

到5月初，全市有150多萬例科維德-19。

Without changing how many people have died, the antibody survey lowers the fatality rate

在不改變死了多少人的情況下，抗體調查降低了死亡率。

by identifying more non-fatal cases. Remember the case fatality rate was 11% one

通過識別更多的非致命性病例。記得案件死亡率是11%一

in 9, but the fatality rate for all those infected may fall somewhere between 1 in 60

九分之一，但所有感染者的死亡率可能介於六十分之一之間。

and 1 in 90 for New York City. So while the death count is higher than we

而紐約市每90人中就有1人死亡所以雖然死亡人數比我們高

thought, the death rate may be lower. But a low fatality rate is not all good news.

認為，死亡率可能會更低。但死亡率低並不全是好消息。

It paints a picture of a tricky virus that moves undetected through many of us and causes

它描繪了一幅棘手的病毒的圖景，它在我們許多人的體內移動而不被發現，並導致

immense suffering and death in others. We can look for comparisons to try to wrap

巨大的痛苦和他人的死亡。我們可以尋找比較，以試圖將其包裹起來。

our heads around the death toll - more people lost in three months in the US than a year's

我們的死亡人數--美國三個月的死亡人數比一年的死亡人數還要多。

worth of car crashes or drug overdoses. Still fewer than annual deaths from cancer or heart

價值的車禍或藥物過量。還是比每年死於癌症或心臟

disease.  But the comparisons are limited. Because unlike

病。 但比較起來是有限的。因為不像

car accidents or cancer, Covid-19 is contagious. Human beings are the vector for this disease

車禍或癌症，Covid-19具有傳染性。人類是這種疾病的傳播媒介。

and their actions are hard to predict. So even with better data about how many are

而他們的行動是很難預測的。所以，即使有更好的數據，關於有多少人是

infected and dying, we won't know the full death toll of this pandemic

感染和死亡，我們不會知道這種流行病的全部死亡人數。

until we find out how it ends.

直到我們發現它的結局。