In the past two weeks, the number of cases of COVID-19 outside China has increased 13-fold.

過去兩週以來，新型冠狀病毒 (COVID-19) 的中國境外病例數增加了 13 倍。

COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic.

COVID-19 疫情已可被定性為「全球大流行」。

The coronavirus, or COVID-19 disease, had already overwhelmed China, South Korea, Iran, and Italy.

新冠病毒，或稱 COVID-19 肺炎，已席捲了中國、韓國、伊朗和義大利。

And this was a warning to other countries where it was now spreading quickly.

而這是世衛組織對疫情正在迅速蔓延的其他國家所提出的警告。

In the days and weeks ahead, we expect to see the number of cases, the number of deaths, and the number affected countries climb even higher.

我們預估在未來的幾天及幾週，估確診人數、死亡人數以及受影響國家數目會大幅攀升。

The spread of COVID-19 was no longer something that could be stopped.

想遏制 COVID-19 的傳播已經不可能了。

But we can still slow it down.

但我們仍然有機會讓它趨緩下來。

We just have to act right now.

方法很簡單，就是立即採取行動。

Someone with COVID-19 usually develops a fever and a cough.

感染 COVID-19 的人常見的症狀包含發燒和咳嗽。

Aches, pains, and other mild symptoms are also possible, but are less frequent.

肌肉痠痛和其他輕度症狀也有可能發生，但相對來說比較少。

But the severity of those symptoms varies, and for some people who get the virus, you might never show symptoms at all.

這些症狀的嚴重程度不盡相同，甚至某些染病的人也可能毫無症狀。

Based on the data from China, the vast majority of cases are not life-threatening.

根據中國所公佈的數據，絕大部分的案例都沒有性命危急的情況。

In 80 percent of cases, people experience only mild disease.

其中 80％ 的案例只是輕症患者。

But in 20 percent of cases, the disease can manifest in a more serious way.

但是剩下的 20％ 患者，病症更為嚴重。

It can develop into quite a severe pneumonia, where people need to be hospitalized and put on ventilators.

會惡化成肺炎，嚴重到病患必須住院治療，並且裝上呼吸器。

Overall, it seems like about 1 to 2 percent of known cases lead to death, but that rate is much lower for young people, and much higher for the elderly.

總體來說，死亡個案大約佔目前案例的 1% 到 2％，但這個比率在年輕族群中會大幅降低，而於老年族群中則是大幅提高。

And it also seems as if people with unmanaged underlying chronic diseases, they also have a tougher time overcoming the virus.

另外，如果病患本身有未治療的潛在慢性病，也會更難以對抗病毒。

The virus also seems to be very contagious, more contagious than the flu.

這個病毒似乎也具有極強的傳染力，比流感病毒更具傳染力。

All you need to do to spread COVID-19 is cough or sneeze on someone else.

只要對著他人咳嗽或打噴嚏，便會傳播 COVID-19 病毒。

Touch a surface where the virus still lives, and then put your hand in your mouth or your eyes or your nose.

手摸了仍有病毒存活的物體表面之後又去觸摸口、眼、鼻，也會感染。

After getting infected, it can take an average of five to six days before you feel sick, and your symptoms start to appear.

感染後平均需要 5-6 天才會感到不適，並開始出現症狀。

But you can already spread it to other people in that period, even if you feel healthy.

但與此同時，你就已經能傳播病毒給他人，就算你覺得自己健康無恙。

Just as people realize they're sick, they seem to be at the most risk of passing it along to others.

正當人們發現自己生病時，似乎也就是傳播風險最高的時候。

That's how the virus has been so effective at spreading across the world so quickly and why the WHO was now calling COVID-19 a pandemic.

這就是為什麼這個病毒在這麼短的時間中便快速蔓延世界各地，同時也是世衛組織將 COVID-19 稱為「全球大流行疫病」的原因。

But what they said next was just as important.

但是接下來的這段話同樣至關重要：

We cannot say this loudly enough.

「我們還是要鄭重強調。」

All countries can still change the course of this pandemic.

「每個國家都仍然有機會改變這個疫情的發展走向。」

And that depends on something each of us needs to do as individuals.

而這需要靠我們每一個人共同做好本分才能達成。

So diseases become really dangerous when everyone gets sick at once, and the health system becomes overwhelmed.

疫情最為危險嚴重的時候，就是在每個人都同時染病，進而造成醫療系統崩潰的情形下。

In any hospital, the capacity to treat patients is limited by how many beds they have.

任何一家醫院的醫療負載量都受限於擁有的病床數量多寡。

Think of this as the number of beds in your local hospital at any given time.

假設這是你社區醫院某段時間的病床數。

A couple are already filled by patients receiving treatment for things like a car accident injury or a stroke.

其中一些床位已經被像是因車禍受傷或中風而需接受治療的病患占用。

And this dot represents one person who's healthy and decides to go out like usual.

而這個圓點代表健康的人，決定像往常一樣外出。

They jump on the subway and head into the office, where they catch COVID-19.

他們搭上地鐵，進到辦公室，然後感染了 COVID-19。

But they don't feel sick right away, and might not for several days.

但是他們不會馬上感到不適，可能甚至數日都不會。

So, later they go to a basketball game, where they unknowingly infect two or three more people.

所以，他們還是跑去看籃球賽，在不知不覺中又傳染給其他兩、三個人。

Most of these people will have relatively mild cases, but one might be an elderly person with a severe case who will eventually have to go to the hospital.

多數感染者症狀會相對較輕微，但也有可能其中一位是惡化成重症的老年人，最後將需住院治療。

But these three, who are all infected but don't feel sick, go out again.

但這三個已經染疫但無症狀的人，繼續在外面趴趴走。

On the subway, into the office, and then out after work, infecting several more people, twenty percent of whom will need to go to the hospital.

搭地鐵，進辦公室，然後下班後又去其他地方，再感染更多人，而當中 20% 的染病者會需要住院治療。

Over a short period of time, this process multiplies the number of people going to the hospital each day.

在很短的時間內，這會導致每天去醫院求診的人數倍增。

Before long, the hospital is full and a crisis begins.

不用多久，醫院就會人滿為患，危機就此展開。

People with severe cases of COVID-19 can't get treatment, and some who could be saved, die.

COVID-19 重症患者無法及時接受治療，造成一些原先可被治癒的人最後不幸去世。

Plus, people with other issues can't get treatment either and some of them die.

另外，患有其他疾病的病患同樣無法得到治療，也會造成一些人死亡。

This surge of severe cases causes avoidable deaths.

重症案例爆增會造成許多應可避免的死亡。

That's what happened in South Korea, Iran, and Italy, all of which went from 100 to more than 5,000 cases in less than two weeks.

這就是韓國、伊朗和義大利所發生的情形，確診個案在不到兩星期，便從 100例 激增到 5,000 多例。

A lot of people died because they couldn't get into the hospitals.

很多人因為無法就醫而死亡。

This surge is made up of only the severe cases, but it was generated by people who didn't feel sick spreading the disease in public.

雖然只有重症病患會造成就醫人數暴增，但一切還是因那些沒有病狀的人在公共場所散布病毒造成的。

Which means the people who can do the most to avoid these unnecessary deaths, are these people.

也就是說，最能有效避免無謂死亡人數增加的，就是這些人。

And that means all of us.

拿那就是指我們每個人。

To slow the virus down, you need to act as if you already have it.

想要減緩病毒散佈，每個人就必須當成自己已經染疫一樣來防疫。

By avoiding public transportation, the office, crowded places, and even small social gatherings, you decrease your chances of both getting the disease, and spreading it.

避免搭乘大眾運輸工具、進辦公室、去人多的地方，甚至避免小型社交聚會，就能減少自己染病的機會，同時也避免傳染給其他人。

This is called social distancing.

就是所謂的「保持社交距離」。

If enough of us do it, the virus still spreads—but much slower.

如果夠多人這麼做的話，病毒雖仍會傳播，但速度會大幅下降。

Over time, many people might still get infected, but fewer severe cases show up to the hospital each day, never overwhelming the system.

一段時間後，很多人可能還是會得病，但每天醫院裡增加的重症患者會減少，就不致壓垮整個醫療系統。

This trendline gets flatter, these people can all get treatment, and fewer people die because of it.

入院病患曲線相對平緩，代表所有的病患都能得到救治，死亡人數也會因此減少。

These are the two ways the COVID-19 pandemic can play out.

這兩個都是 COVID-19 流行疫病可能的走向。

But this one only happens if everyone does their part.

但這個走向唯有所有人共同努力才能達成。

And it's why experts and officials are urging people to "flatten the curve" by social distancing, and staying home as much as possible.

這也是為什麼政府和專家們不斷倡導民眾保持社交距離、盡量避免外出，一同使這個曲線趨於平緩。

It's also why In the U.S., many companies are helping by requiring employees to work from home and major sports leagues have canceled their games for the time being.

也是為什麼，美國許多公司位協助防疫而要求自家員工在家上班，大型體育聯盟也暫時取消了所有體育賽事。

It may seem drastic but it's worked before.

這些手段似乎過於激烈，但並非沒有成功先例可借鏡。

In 1918, the cities of Philadelphia and St. Louis were both hit by a flu pandemic, but they responded in different ways.

1918年，費城和聖路易市都遭逢流感蔓延，但他們的做法完全不同。

In Philadelphia, health officials allowed a huge parade to go ahead.

在費城，衛生機關允許大型遊行集會繼續進行。

While in St. Louis, officials prepared.

而在聖路易市，政府做了充分的準備。

They closed schools, theaters, and bars.

他們關閉了學校、劇院和酒吧。

Philadelphia's hospitals were overwhelmed and many more died as a result.

結果，費城的醫院不堪負荷，最終造成更多人死亡。

But St. Louis was able to avoid those excessive deaths.

聖路易市則成功壓低死亡人數。

A hundred years later, these are the two scenarios we face.

而一百年後的我們，也正面對這兩種情況。

A difference not in whether you get the coronavirus, but when you get it.

兩者的差別不在於得病與否，而是何時得病。

That could mean the difference between life and death, maybe for someone you know.

那可能就是生死一線間，有可能就決定了你身邊的某個人的死活。

We have to act now.

但是，我們現在就必須立即做出行動。