Signs like the Chinese might have the Americans on the ropes or slightly on the run.

You take on the latest salvos this morning.

Welcome.

Thanks for having me here this morning.

Look, there's been a bit of a cat mouse game going on for a while here, Dale.

So you'll have ah bit of Olive Branch and then you'll have a little bit of a parry.

So I don't think that this is anything more than the radical rhetoric that we've seen over the last several months.

As that rhetoric continues and people started saying that we should hunker.

Dying for something slightly longer, more enduring and less stable without a mind is the bastion for you.

I want to be long American equities.

I want to belong the dollar relative to the rest of the world.

If we're hunkering down for a longer term, Franka, look, the main reason to be long us right now is that the U.

S.

Economy is still doing pretty well relative to the rest the world.

And so that's reflective in capital flows being interested in US assets.

So that continues to propel us markets.

But as you say anything that continues to weigh on that that suggests that this is going to deteriorate into a broader global recessionary impact, which ultimately would pull the US down with it.

Any of those things are things are going to investors very nervous in this environment.

My last gas Laurie.

I have a look at this is in the GTV lively opposites attract.

I'm talking about equities versus bonds.

Undoubtedly, the bond traders really had the narrative, didn't they?

I think the phrase that my last gas used the bonds were winning control off the narrative.

In other words, the yields really were beginning to turn quite aggressively lower.

The shorting has reduced what happens next in this story.

In regards the bond market, Laurie, do we see lower yields in the near term?

Well, we think the bond market, at least in the U.

S.

Has it a bit wrong, in the sense that yields on the 10 year at one and 1/2 are not consistent with an economy that's still growing north of 2% are forecast is that 2000 and 19 will be about 2.3% in the US and even 2000 and 20 looks pretty good in about 1.9.

So it seems as though rates at one and 1/2 are lower than they should be.

On the other hand, when you have zero interest rate policies and other geography is around the world, the US it's pretty much a safe haven.

It's a place to put some capital and get at least a little bit of return.

So we think that that's a lot of what's driving the lower yields, at least on the long end.

We just caught up with Jeffrey, you there and I said to him, You know, was Thursday pivotal moment If you look at the slate car slate off data card last week, manufacturing service is on a less than effusive jobs report, even though the rate of unemployment at a 50 year no wages were a bit dubious.

I asked him was at a pivotal moment on Thursday, and he said to me, finding have been a pivotal moment in terms of the markets.

But it might have been a pivotal moment in terms off the Fed Chevy and chipping them along to do a little bit more.

You say the case for pause is building.

Have a look at the rates market.

Tell me why you think the case for pause is building.

Well, look, we still think that the Fed may move one more time this year.

We don't think that it's going to be October.

We think it's going to be more like the end of the year, December.

But really, the Fed has said repeatedly that they're gonna be data dependent.

And when you look at the data, at least in the U.

S.

Economy, the consumer health is quite strong and about 70% of the U.

S.

Economy rests on the shoulders of the consumer.

So you've got an employment number that came in not, you know, knock your shot socks off.

But it was also a number that had, you know, reasonable backing.

We had some improvement in the past.

You know, a job's growth.

We still see you hours worked being pretty good.

So there doesn't seem to be anything on the horizon that suggest that the consumer is gonna crack.

So as long as that doesn't happen, there's no reason for the Fed to get into a bit of an emergency mode here, okay?

And you've got some tactical calls in terms of credit versus duration.

One of two people have sort of said to me.

Look, man, what maybe I'm missing is that the scale off taking those duration trades off has been quite substantial.

So when you say you prefer credit to duration, just talk me through that.

Yeah.

So, again, a zay mentioned our views Are that, you know, 10 years at one and 1/2 just doesn't seem consistent with the kind of broad growth backdrop that we have in the U.

S.

On the other hand, even though they were late, we're late cycle.

We do believe that low interest rates enable companies to continue to finance and continue to have their own operations do well here.

So, you know, at the margin we think investment grade looks better than Treasuries because you're picking up a little bit of income there at the margin.

We like the certain sectors of the high yield market here again, a nice sort of a balance between ah, large overweight to equities versus having a little bit of our equity exposure through high yield credit.

So We're trying to be very selective in here.

We're trying to stay focused on quality, but we are looking for those places to get incremental return above just the risk free rate.