in the world's most populous country

世界上最多人口數的城市

look like during this new coronavirus outbreak.

看起來的樣子。

Millions of people in China

數百萬的大陸人民

have been ordered to stay indoors

被規定待在室內，

or banned from traveling

或是不可以外出旅行，

in an attempt to stop the disease from spreading.

為了就是要防止病情的散播。

But from the city of Wuhan,

但是從武漢這個城市，

where the first patient came from,

也就是首例病患的發生地，

coronavirus infections have spread

冠狀病毒的感染已經散播

to several continents.

到各個大洲。

So, why is it so hard to contain these outbreaks?

所以到底是為什麼很難防止這些爆發呢？

And, are we ready for the next one?

然後我們已經準備好下一步了嗎？

This strain of the coronavirus

這個冠狀病毒的病變，

is believed to have spread

也已認定是由動物

from animals to humans,

傳給人類，

and then from humans to humans

而演變成人類咳嗽或打噴嚏所產生的飛沫，

by droplets from sneezing or coughing.

傳染給其他人。

The World Health Organization says

世界衛生組織指出，

that, so far, it has a low mortality rate.

目前冠狀病毒的死亡率很低。

The flu, for example, kills thousands of people every year.

像是每年的流感就會導致幾千萬的人死亡。

But this coronavirus strain is new,

但這個冠狀病毒的病變是從未見過的，

and it is infectious, which is why

它有傳染力，這也就是為什麼

it's being taken so seriously.

大家開始重視這個病毒。

As of February 2020, about 60 million people,

到 2020 年 2 月為止，大概有 6 千萬的大陸人民，

more than the entire population of Spain,

也就是多過於西班牙的整個人口數，

are being quarantined in their homes in China.

規定在家中進行隔離。

It's a massive feat. But some fear

這是一個很大的革命。但有些人

that isolating that many people together could backfire.

認為一次隔離這麼多人會有反效果。

First of all, you can't wall off a germ.

主要是因為，你們無法阻隔任何的細菌。

Simply impossible.

根本就不可能。

Lawrence Gostin is a professor

Lawrence Gostin 為美國

of Global Health Law at Georgetown University

喬治城大學全球衛生法的教授，

and a director at the World Health Organization's Center

以及任職於世界衛生組織中心的國際衛生法

on Global Health Law.

執行長。

Can you imagine if you were forced

你們可以想像如果自己

to be congregated in with 50 million people

得待在一個炙熱擠滿 5 千萬病患

in a hot zone of contagion, how you would feel?

的空間中，你們會有怎麼樣的感受呢？

You'd feel you're a guinea pig.

你們會覺得自己像是隻豚鼠。

You would feel panicky.

你們會感到焦慮。

You would worry about getting food,

你們會擔心有沒有糧食、

water, essential medicines,

水、基本的藥物，

that you couldn't get to a hospital,

你們也無法去醫院，

and you were walled off from the world.

而且你們也無法跟外面的世界有所聯繫。

Professor Gostin worries

Gostin 教授擔心

about a breakdown in public trust.

這會有損大眾的信任。

If the public doesn't trust the solutions

如果大眾不相信這些由

being offered by officials,

政府官員提出的解決方案的話，

then they aren't solutions at all.

那這些解決方案都一無用處。

For example, in the West African Ebola outbreak,

例如，在西非伊波拉爆發時期，

many people stopped reporting

有許多人不向上報告

when they were getting sick.

說他們感染了病毒。

They didn't trust the foreign health workers

他們不相信外國衛生工作人員，

who were cordoning patients off from the rest of society,

因為他們把病患聚集起來並與社會隔離，

especially since many were dying in quarantine.

而因此有很多人死於這樣的隔離之中。

And so the outbreak continued to spread.

所以這樣子爆發就持續進行著。

Many people were infected and more died.

很多人受感染，然後更多的死亡。

But even if there is full cooperation

就算即使政府官員和人民

between officials and the population at risk,

在這危機之時互相配合，

it's hard to contain an outbreak like the coronavirus.

仍是難以防止這武漢肺炎的爆發。

We're less safe because we're globally interconnected

我們處在一個不安全的環境中，因為現在全球各個國家

in a way that we've never ever been before.

從未像現在如此緊密地聯繫著。

In 1950, 750 million people

在 1950 年，全球有 75 千萬人們

lived in urban areas globally.

住在都市。

Today, that number is more than 4 billion.

現今，這個數字已經超過 40 億。

People are living closer together,

人們現在住得很密集，

many in overcrowded areas, making it easier

很多人擠在一個小區域中，使得

for disease to spread from human to human.

疾病更容易人傳人。

And our modern transport infrastructure

另外我們現代交通的基本建設，

means a virus that would have been geographically

指出一個病毒可能可以從過去的

contained in the past can now get from one side

一個地理位置，在短短幾個小時後，

of the globe to another in just a few hours.

就可以跑到地球的另一邊。

In 2003, another coronavirus epidemic called SARS

在 2003 年，另一個冠狀傳染病： SARS ，

spread from China.

從大陸爆發出疫情。

There's actually four times greater

而現在大陸人民的國際旅行

international travel by Chinese citizens

已經比起當時的 SARS 事件

now than there was during SARS.

高達四倍之多。

But transport technology

但交通科技

is generally a good thing,

整理來說是一件好事情，

and people will keep moving to urban areas.

人們可以移居到都市居住。

What's more, viruses are always mutating into new strains.

除此之外，病毒總是會一直有新的突變。

So, in reality we can't avoid outbreaks.

所以實際上我們無法避免病毒的爆發。

We just need to get better at dealing with them.

我們只能努力好好地想辦法解決它們。

We tend to lurch from complacency

我們會讓自己陷入一個從自負

to panic and overreaction.

到慌張和反應過度。

And so, when we're in a major outbreak,

所以當我們面臨一個大爆發時，

like we are now with the coronavirus,

就像我們現在面臨這個武漢肺炎的情況下，

we tend to react and overreact

我們都會有所反應和過度反應，

and try to just catch up and respond.

試著要搞清楚狀況並且有所反應。

But then, as soon as things calm down,

不過一旦事情已平穩之後，

we withdraw funding, we withdraw planning,

我們會開始撤資，撤計畫，

we withdraw preparedness.

我們不再未雨綢繆。

So, isn't it a much, much better way

所以準備好面對一個傳染病，

to prepare for an epidemic

並且預防以及能提早預測到它，

and to prevent it and detect it early?

不是一件很好的事情嗎？

So, if the solution

所以如果這樣的解決方式

is to be proactive rather than reactive,

不是被動的，而是超前佈署的話，

what can we do?

我們該怎麼做呢？

Until a vaccine is discovered

直到發現可以抑制

for this strain of the coronavirus,

這變種的冠狀病毒疫苗之前，

you can protect yourself and others

你們經常保持手的乾淨，

by covering your mouth

並且在咳嗽或是打噴嚏的時候，

when coughing or sneezing,

蓋住自己的嘴巴

washing your hands frequently,

就可以保護自己還有其他人。

and, if you develop symptoms,

如果你們受到感染的話，

avoiding contact with others

一直到你們康復之前，

until you're cleared by a doctor.

都要避免與他人接觸，

That's what you can do.

這就是你們可以做的事情。

But governments need to do more,

但政府需要有更多作為，

and they need to do it together.

而且他們必須要有共同的目標。

There's no real way to force a government

沒有方式可以逼迫一個不想與

to work with global health organizations

世界衛生組織合作的

if it doesn't want to.

政府。

For example, during the SARS epidemic,

就像是在 SARS 傳染病的爆發，

Chinese officials hid the extent of the outbreak

中國政府對大陸人民以及全世界

from both the Chinese public and the world.

隱瞞了這傳染病的消息。

That led to many more people being infected.

這樣導致了許多人受到了感染。

This time around, lessons seem to have been learned.

而到現在，大家似乎都有所領悟了。

China informed the World Health Organization

大陸有即時告知世界衛生組織，

and its own citizens of this new coronavirus

和他們的人民有關這個新冠肺炎

relatively quickly.

的消息。

It also sequenced the virus's genome

提供了全世界正在努力

and shared that information

找尋疫苗的科學家們，

with scientists around the world,

有關這個病毒的基因組織

who have begun working on trying to find a vaccine.

和其他的相關訊息，

- We used to not have effective vaccines.

－我們以前都沒有這些有效的疫苗。

We didn't have effective antiviral medications.

我們以前沒有有效的抗病毒的藥。

Now, we can rapidly develop those.

而現在我們可以很快地開發出這些藥。

So, yes, we are very much less safe,

所以對，我們比起以前是沒有比較安全，

but we have the technical capacity to be safer.

但現在我們有這些技術讓我們更安全。

But the problem with any defense,

但這防衛的方式

is that it's only as strong as its weakest link.

指的卻是最脆弱的聯繫關係。

And we live in a world where access to healthcare

我們住在一個可以接觸到衛生保健的世界，

and healthy environments is not equal.

不過這樣的環境並不是平等的。

If you asked any thoughtful epidemiologist,

如果你們問任何一個有理念的流行病學家，

"What is the single greatest predictor

「哪一件東西是人類

of a human being's health?"

健康的最大獵殺者？」

He would say, "The postal code."

他會說：「郵遞區號」。

Where you live matters. And it's not just

你住在哪裡才是重點。這不是只是

the differences in health systems

健康系統不一樣而已，

and public health infrastructure

國家中的高薪、中薪、以及低薪

between high-income and low- and middle-income countries.

之間的健康體系。

There are also vast inequities within countries

而且在各個國家也是存在著難以理解的不平等關係，

for those who are living in well-heeled neighborhoods

像是那些住在富裕的人們，

and those that are living in squalor.

和那些住在骯髒地方的人民。

This is simply immoral, unjust.

這簡單來說就是不人道、不平等的。

That's a problem,

那是一個問題，

even in the world's richest country

就算在世界上最富有的國家，

where many people avoid going to the doctor

還是有很多人不願看醫生，

because of how expensive American healthcare can be.

就像是美國的天價醫療體系。

That's tragic enough by itself.

這樣醫療體系已經夠悲慘了。

But in an epidemic, it might be disastrous.

但以傳染病而言，這可能會是件災難。

If we're going to be proactive in our fight

如果我們要積極地面對

against these outbreaks,

這場爆發的戰役，

improving healthcare quality for everyone

為大家提升健康衛生的品質

might be the best strategy we've got.

可能是我們最好的策略。

Health equality matters,

健康平等權是很重要的，

and it matters a lot - not just for the individual,

是無與倫比的重要－不只是為了個人而已，

not just for the community, not only for the country,

也不是為了社區，也不是為了國家，

but for the globe.

而只是單單為了全球。