Name: 美聯儲，經濟增長和股票｜重要的圖表。 (The Fed, growth and stocks | Charts that Count)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T09:32:47.000Z
Duration: 5 min 26 s
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It's been a big week for the American economy.

As the Federal Reserve made a big announcement, a whole series of important American companies announced their third quarter earnings and third quarter GDP growth was announced.

So today we're going to talk about growth rates and stocks.

It has now become very clear that the rate of economic growth in the United States is slowing.

For the third quarter, official numbers showed that the growth rate is now 1.9% a slight slowdown from the second quarter.

And if you don't believe there's a slowdown, the Fed definitely does.

After a multiyear period in which they steadily increased rates as the economy enjoyed the benefits off Trump's tax cut and recovery from the recession of a decade ago, the Fed has changed course and has now cut rates several times.

And indeed, just as we're recording, this has cut rates one more time toe 1.75%.

What has been very striking aboutthe slowdown is how uneven it's been.

On the one hand, the consumer in the United States is strong.

Unemployment is low, consumer spending remains strong But on the other hand, the industrial economy is floundering.

Just in the past few weeks, we've seen two companies that are generally considered bellwethers for economic growth.

Texas Instruments, a semiconductor company, and CAT, a maker of great big industrial machines, both cut their growth outlooks, both citing the effect of uncertainty among companies and investors on the global economy.

So how have stocks responded to news of a slowdown?

This Green line is an index of US bank stock performance, and the banks have performed much as we might have expected.

While the economy was growing robustly and the Fed was increasing rates, bank stocks performed quite well.

But as we approached, the end of the rate increased cycle and rumblings of a slower economy started to be heard.

Bank stock performance has slacked off and has not improved since as the economy has weakened.

The really interesting thing, however, is how well industrial stocks have performed even as the economy has slowed and the Fed has backed off.

This is an index of US semiconductor stocks.

One might not normally associate tiny chips with the heavy industrial part of the economy, but The fact is, chips go in tow.

All the machines that businesses use and chip stocks, as a result, are considered ah, strong cyclical indicator of future economic growth.

Even as one of the biggest semiconductor stocks, Texas Instruments, cut guidance Not long ago, the stocks have hardly taken a breath charging upward.

Why is it that in a slowing economy, industrial stocks, which are supposed to be economically sensitive, continue to roar ahead even as the Fed issues warnings about the future and bank stocks take fright?

This is just one of many ways in which the current economic cycle has proven to be different from any of the cycles that went before it.

So it is something of an enduring mystery.

Might it be that investors feel that given where we are and with interest rates so low and remember even after the Fed's long hiking cycle, rates are still near historic lows?

Might investors feel they have no choice but to own stocks and U.

S stocks in particular with rates at these levels, fixed income offers very little upside, So even as the industrial economy falters, investors feel they have no choice but to stay with industrial stocks.

As for bank stocks, the memory of the crisis is still fresh, which is enough to frighten them away.

So the economy slows, the Fed loosens, bank stocks cower.

And yet economically sensitive stocks continue to go.

 Oh, we can only wait and see whether this can end well. 

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美聯儲，經濟增長和股票｜重要的圖表。 (The Fed, growth and stocks | Charts that Count)

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