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  • volatility is at an all time low.

  • So is this the calm before the storm joining me today from the floor of the CME?

  • Me, Phil streetball senior market strategists over at our jail futures.

  • I feel good to have you back on the show.

  • Yeah.

  • Thanks for having me, Sophie.

  • I need to ask.

  • You know, there's talk of economic data weakening, but investors are still rushing into stocks as the federal means doubles.

  • So is this cause for concern here?

  • Well, yeah.

  • If you look at the if you look at the data that's coming out the economic data, the data that has been dependent upon lower interest rates has all done quite well.

  • Like housing starts, housing permits, things like that.

  • If you look at economic data that revolves around trade, you don't like we've got durable goods coming out next week.

  • That could be a miss.

  • So it all depends on how the data, what it's based off of.

  • I do think that it does have a little bit of concern out there, But the Federal Reserve, they don't seem concerned at all.

  • And, you know, amidst this context, gold has taken a back seat with prices taking a breather here.

  • But that hasn't stopped central banks from buying gold.

  • We saw Russia at to the reserves in October, Serbia joining the mix of countries buying gold.

  • So what do you think they know that investors are missing?

  • Is there?

  • Is there a crisis that they feel is coming so to two things with that one?

  • You know, these central banks, they've been increasing their deficits.

  • Also, there have been some run on banks and things like that.

  • So they are shifting and also the declining interest rates.

  • It's kind of a race to the bottom, so those guys are shifting some of their assets out.

  • There's a lot of trade wars going on, and not only between the US and China.

  • There's other ones out there.

  • So I think that it's a smart move with lower interest rates for them to go into these nine yielding bearing assets like gold.

  • And then if you you know, the second thing you talked about was a potential crisis.

  • One of the guys who I really follow, like Ray Dalio with Bridgewater, they came out and they got notification.

  • They bought about a $1,000,000,000 worth of put options in the S and P 500.

  • So that tells you that.

  • You know, these guys are preparing for some kind of crisis around the corner.

  • I don't see it yet at the moment, but it is something that could develop Interesting Phil.

  • Also the dollar and gold, both moving down together in the last month.

  • As we know, they usually don't move in the same direction that this surprising.

  • The problem with that was that that we saw interest rates being cut.

  • So that weakens the dollar index less.

  • People are, people are not gonna hold their money.

  • And banks, they're gonna take it out.

  • And with the interest rate cycle the Fed coming out saying that they don't see any more, you know, it's not likely that we'll have further rate cuts.

  • That's when gold starts to weaken with it.

  • That's how they move together.

  • There was a bit of a shift in the British pound here with some Brexit news, but otherwise it's not uncommon to see the two moving in tandem because it's how people perceive safety.

  • If you're down in a country that has a weak currency, you might sell that currency by dollars that's what pushes it up.

  • And then also, if you're in other countries where interest rates are declining, you might go into gold, and that's how they're gonna move in tandem together.

  • All right, finally fill out.

  • You know, I plan to bring you back for our special outlook.

  • Siri's that we always do in December.

  • But short term, can you give us some insights as some key influences you're looking for A next month.

  • We're talking price action here in gold.

  • Yeah, if you look at gold.

  • So you know, it's really unfortunate because because seasonally 12 of the last 15 years, if you sell gold next week, you cover it.

  • Just before Christmas.

  • It has declined.

  • The average declines been about $37.

  • Last year it was up.

  • But two previous years, you know, it was down pretty bad here.

  • So if you look at, you know, a couple of things the chart pattern on gold, we've seen this decline.

  • It's come up a bit, and now it looks like it's gonna break again.

  • That's a bear flag in the chart.

  • And then the target on the downside of the bear flag would be around 14 25.

  • That's where you have that 1300.

  • Where we broke out to the upside.

  • We peeked at 15.

  • 50.

  • That'd be a 50% Fibonacci retracement.

  • So, unfortunately, I got to say it.

  • I'm not too optimistic on gold here for the short term.

  • Interesting.

  • All right, well, I will pick your brain.

  • And next time you're on some war on God, I appreciate your insights today, Phil Streetball, we will have much more for you on Geico dot com.

volatility is at an all time low.


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B1 中級

雷-達利歐和央行轉向黃金,為危機做準備。 (Ray Dalio and central banks turn to gold, prepare for crisis)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日