Name: 冠狀病毒有多嚴重？傳染性疾病專家邁克爾-奧斯特霍姆解釋｜喬-羅根 (How Serious is the Coronavirus? Infectious Disease Expert Michael Osterholm Explains | Joe Rogan)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T09:27:56.000Z
Duration: 15 min 29 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。學這些英文用法：武漢肺炎,新型冠狀病毒,新冠肺炎,COVID-19

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What you said when you sat down was absolutely perfect that the timing could not have been better.

We'll tell everybody what to do, Michael.

Im ah, for a black of a better term of medical detective.

I've spent my whole career tracking infectious diseases down, trying to stop him.

Try, understand where they come from so we can make sure they don't happen in the first place.

But most of all, trying to respond to situations just like this, just like this.

Is this something that we need to be terrified of?

Or is this overblown, or how do you stand on this?

Well, first of all, you have to understand the timing of it in the sense that is just beginning.

And so, in terms of what hurt pain, suffering, death is a cow.

Happened so far is really just beginning.

This is gonna unfold for months to come yet, and that's I think what people don't quite yet understand.

Um, what we saw in China, I'm convinced, as are many of my colleagues.

As soon as they release all of these social distances is mandated, stay in homes have left her home and weeks and weeks kind of thing when they go back to work there on planes, trains, subways, buses, crowded spaces, manufacturing plants, even China is going to come back again.

And so this really is acting like an influenza virus, something that transmits very, very easily through the air we now have dated to show that you're infectious before you even get sick and in some cases, quite highly infectious.

Just breathing is all that you need to D'oh.

So from this perspective, I can understand why people would say, Well, wait a minute.

Flu kills a lot more itself every year than this does and already remind people that just beginning Probably the best guest, what we have right now On what limited data we have to say.

This is gonna be at least 10 to 15 times worse than the worst seasonal flu year.

We see 10 to 15 times worse in terms of fatalities.

We conservatively estimate that this could and require 48 million hospitalizations.

96 million cases actually occurring over 480,000 deaths that can occur over the next 3 to 7 ones with this situation.

So this is not one that to take lightly, and I think that's what I can understand if you say we're going 10 deaths or $20 for 50 desk.

Just remember two weeks ago we were talking about almost no cases in the United States.

And now that we're testing for it and watching the spread as it's unfolding, those numbers going up astronomically.

Three weeks ago, Italy was just living life just fine.

Now they're literally in a virtual shut down in the northern parts of Italy, and that's the challenge.

With an infectious disease like this, it could spread very quickly, and it also can affect people.

I think maybe to put this into modern terms, this is something we think of often when we think of of, you know, pre antibiotic days.

We have an employee at our Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the inverse Minnesota, and she has a dear friend who lives in Milan, Italy, and she works at a hospital there, and she texted this to this employee of ours last night, and this was an email that came out yesterday from one of their physicians in the line at the largest hospital there, he said.

I just got a very disturbing message from a cardiologists at one of the Milan's largest hospitals.

They're deciding who they have to let die.

They aren't screening the staff anymore because they need all hands on deck.

And they have a very small areas of the hospital dedicated to non covert patient where they still screen doctors.

Everybody else is dedicated to covert patients, so even if they're positive, meaning that they're sick, they don't.

But they don't have a severe cough or fever than they have to work.

Hey says that that they're seeing an alarming number of cases in the 40 something change rage, and it's horrible cases.

So we need to stop thinking that this is only an old person's disease.

This is what I'm gonna unfold, not just in Wuhan.

It's unfolding here in Seattle, and this is what's going to continue to Rolling Lee unfold throughout the world.

That it's old person's disease is it just because the majority of people that have died from it so far have been older?

In fact, that's the primary risk factor for dinos being old and then having certain underlying health problems.

For example, in China, uh, those men over the age of 70 who also smoked were 8 to 10% of them died.

65% of older Chinese men smoke the, uh, case fatality rate of the percentage of people who die and women.

Now the challenge we have is that that's the Chinese data.

But there are Siri's of risk factors that we worry about that if they overlay on this disease, are gonna cause bad outcomes.

And we happen to be right at ground zero for one of the major ones here in this country.

We know that obesity is just like smoking in terms of its ability to really cause severe life threatening disease.

And 45% of our population today, over the age of 45 in this country are obese or civilian bees and their men and women So one of the concerns we have is we're going to Seymour of these What?

I guess I would call very serious and life threatening cases occur in our country because of different set of risk factors.

Now you mentioned that there's some sort of incubation period before people become sick.

And how do we know about it when we call something an incubation?

But we're talking about from the time you and I got exposed, meaning I was in a room breathing the air that somebody else who was infected with the virus was expelling out.

I breathed it in How long from that time period help the time period that you get sick And what is that is that's we called incubation period.

So that's when case numbers conduct or triple in every so many days in this case is about four days.

So and we actually have data there from people who are exposed one time for one time only, and we know when they were exposed where they were exposed, how soon do they get sick afterwards?

So the chauffeur in the car where an individual is sick showing symptoms than the chauffeur gets it four days later.

You know they were there one time one time.

And if the chauffeur does not show any symptoms, he's still contagious.

You could you could also be contagious, too, or he and that's one of the things that's challenging here is you and I might get exposed to somebody who is totally asymptomatic.

But in fact, when it infects us, it could kill us.

So we've seen cases of fatal disease that were exposed to people that had minor symptoms themselves.

And this is where I think it's such an important.

And I said, why the timing is so important?

Because, you know, Joe, we really got to get information out to the public.

There was so much mystery from information right now, and, you know, we're gonna be in this for a while.

This is not gonna happen overnight, and I worry.

I keep telling people we're handling this like it's a Corona blizzard, you know, two or three days romantic, normal.

This is a Corona virus winter, and we're gonna have the next three months or more, six months or more that are gonna be like this.

And you know, so far this thing has been unfolding exactly as we predicted it.

We and our center put out a piece on January 20th and said, This is going to spread worldwide Time people said Dad, No, it's just tryingto we put out a piece the first week of February said This is gonna pop probably the last week of February 1st week of March.

What's called a are not or a doubling time of these every four days, so to increase is doubling every four days.

So if you go from 2 to 4 to 8 16 it takes awhile to build up.

But when you start going from 500 to 1000 to 6000 that's what we're seeing happening places like Italy.

We're beginning to see it in some ways, up in Seattle.

It's what happened in China, and you know, when people are confronted with that, suddenly this low risk phenomenon there were talks about isn't so low anymore, and that's we need to prepare people for now, what can be done?

What in the average person do I see people walking around with masks on wearing gloves?

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冠狀病毒有多嚴重？傳染性疾病專家邁克爾-奧斯特霍姆解釋｜喬-羅根 (How Serious is the Coronavirus? Infectious Disease Expert Michael Osterholm Explains | Joe Rogan)

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contagious