do well at Cheltenham but this year I've managed to profit even before Chalmers

started thanks to the unique circumstances surrounding this meeting

so let's have a look at that in this video if you're interested in learning

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Tube channel and click on the bell icon if you want notification of new videos

as they're released so Cheltenham has come back round again

at children 2020 is here or almost here and and I love children simply because

it's the the chance for me to really put decent sums of money through the market

as I've mentioned in other videos the market in itself over four days will

turn over probably about a hundred and fifty million and the average of each

race will be about four to five million pound and the bigger races if the

circumstances are correct could turn over ten million or more so it always

gets my attention it's one of the big meetings that I love was slightly

apprehensive heading into it but I generally produce a pretty good result

and last year I produced a very good result over the course of the meeting

did pretty well all the way through there and then had a really good day on

gold cup day which would be the last day the Friday at Cheltenham

I've managed last year finally to break the 1000 pound barrier on the Gold Cup

for some reason I tend to pull in fairly consistent results at Cheltenham but I

never ever managed to get above a thousand Permenter finally did it last

year so it was a real moment for me last year to be able to achieve that Gold Cup

day went okay predominantly because of the Gold Cup market and I was a little

bit inconsistent towards the end but by then I'd done most of what I was going

to do anyway and it all went pretty well so I'm always you know grateful for that

I never assumed anything in the run-up to a meeting and I research and detail

all of my knowledge and look at all of my prior notes to be as well prepared as

possible but never quite know what's coming around

the corner and if you're interested in all of the detail that goes beyond

Cheltenham I have discussed it before and if you want to look at previous

trading videos around Cheltenham data information knowledge all of those

things I've covered it over many many years

and you should go to the Academy where we have grouped all of those videos

together and put some extra videos on there that you won't find on YouTube

where you can actually learn all about how Charlie Marx look at some markets

understand everything that happens within it because it does feel very

different and if you don't get on with the Cheltenham markets it's not really

an issue because 99.9% I've never worked out what the stat is but it's very high

of markets will not be like Chapman or like these big meetings most of the

day-to-day stuff that you see basically performs in a certain way and it's very

different from what you'll expect to see a chairman so if you don't get on with

Chapman it's not a major issue but however this is an opportunity for me to

use a slightly bigger bank and to really go for it and I love really throwing

everything catch on them to see what I could possibly do so it's a big

opportunity for me can influence how I perform over the course of the year and

it's certainly the biggest chunk that you take out of the month of March so

yeah it's worth doing that but I never go into the meeting assuming that I know

how it's going to trade I'll look at prior notes but you can't as a trader

believe that just because you did well last year you can do well the other I've

seen so many people lose their edge over time and it's because they fail to adapt

so I'm always on the outlook for what has changed in prior years and how it's

changing this year so you'll get the chance to do that on the Tuesday and

then hopefully you can sort of build from there if you're an active trader

you'll be able to understand how the market works and build from it and I'll

be doing exactly the same because you just don't know what the markets going

to throw you and we've had a great example of that yet because of kovat 19

the coronavirus as its colloquially called now now it's important to

understand that coronaviruses have been around for a long time and what we're

seeing now is actually a mutation of that a new strain and as a consequence

that's why there's a lot of fuss about it because everybody's been getting

and coughs and man flu for millennia but this is something that's slightly

different and that's why everybody's on tenterhooks basically and trying to

understand exactly what's going on and until they can sequence and come up with

vaccines and really understand the nature of this virus there's going to be

a lot of uncertainty out there and that uncertainty is spilt over to the

Cheltenham Festival and you know one of the biggest markets that we're going to

see at Chatham is probably going to be they will race and go ahead market and

you know you may think that this is an unusual market but in fact it's been

pretty common over the years so typically during the jump season when we

get wind rain snow anything the world decides to throw at us you typically do

get a will racing go ahead market so it's not unique to Chatham it's

something that you frequently see across a range of individual markets over the

course of the winter in the UK and sometimes even in the summer and so

that's not the unique aspect of it but obviously the circumstances surrounding

it ah pretty unique because the concern being that Cheltenham being a big event

with a large number of people may come under the auspices of the Department of

Health and therefore they may decide to call it off to limit the spread of the

disease however and when you look across the broad spectrum of sports you sort of

feel that as we move closer to the festival that becomes less and less

likely Innes if there was an explosion in people who were confirmed to actually

have the virus so this brings unnecessarily a trading opportunity and

you know I will trade anything if there's liquidity in it and there is

liquidity in this market it's been very high what I'll do is I'll check the

market and we'll pop up and what volume there is in this market at this

particular moment in time but for me this was an obvious trade and I say

obvious because there is publicly available information on this particular

market and also there are a number of factors in there that make it quite

oh I was looking for the right words there - it's easy to frame this

particular tray that's probably what I'm trying to say here because when we when

the market opens it opened at around evens and it bounced around a little bit

throughout the length of the market so far and it's like if there were no new

cases then the price would grow so you come in and they look like chill and was

going to be more likely and then the market would spike out when some new

cases were announced but if you actually looked at the press releases on the

announcement of those cases you could see that they were timed at roughly the

same amount of time each day so you would back it with the price expecting

to come in a bit or you would lay it when we just ahead of when that

announcement was made and the price would spike out but typically the the

main part or the essence of this trade is to do with time decay if we're ten

days out and the markets priced at evens we're basically saying that you know it

starts at twos and that's going to just decline away and it doesn't go in a

linear fashion it tends to sort of you know follow a curve basically to expiry

because it gets much more likely as we get closer to that particular day so

it's obvious to me that there were several elements to this trade and that

in fact backing for the meeting to go ahead was probably the most logical

thing to do because each day the past then you would get a chunk of value

purely down to the amount of time left for the festival to go ahead so it just

made perfect sense for me to back this and wait for the price to start coming

in but you know there are there are other factors within here as well the

the number of cases that were coming up were relatively small so if you think

about the number of cases in a population of 60 million people plus

island because obviously they're going to be loads of Irish people coming over

as well to their channel well and other nationalities I'm just looking the two

broad bases here let's not exclude anybody but some you know obviously all

of those people getting together would probably create an issue for the spread

of the virus however if you think about it you know

we had the League Cup last weekend there were 90,000 people at Wembley some of

them from Manchester and that was where one of the cases were and they did not

you know say Oh what we're thinking about

stopping the league cup so when you take all of those things into you know into

account you have to look at it and you have to sort of say well you know what

would cause shot them to be can sort or postponed and that would be like a surge

in the number of cases that were being reported and the fact is that hasn't

happened now near to me we've actually got two cases you know not that far away

so you know we went to a dinner party at the weekend and obviously that was the

number one discussion really and all of the rumors and everything swirling

around but what you tend to find is that the news and media outlets tend to

amplify things because they want your eyeballs or they want you to read their

papers so they're always going to have sensationalist headlines you've got to

come to to terms with that whatever you're researching whatever you're doing

they incentive as not to give you the correct information it's to get you to

read their media and social media as you know is a law unto itself and you can't

really trust anything on social media you have to take it with a pinch of salt

however you know I've been following biologists who are independent of any

media organisations and they tend to keep you a fair and balanced view and

refer you to other papers so I have been quite interested in the whole thing

because I was interested in what do they know about it what do they think about

how it's spreading what are the real numbers but also will it follow the

normal flu season cycle because that was the other thing that was going off in

the back of my mind as well is that obviously the flu season follows a

defined pattern and as the further we head into that pattern is it going to be

following that same pattern as well now from the academic circles they were sort

of saying well we don't know it's it's a new strain of the virus but you sort of

believe or feel that maybe it should be following that cycle but obviously

there's no evidence as such to confirm that at this moment in time and that's

Russia's in another point for you here so governments officials people who are

responsible for Public Health are always going to give you a worst case scenario

because when they have to make a decision you know large organized a

especially public ones or you know that are in public service are built for

continuity not for taking risks so they will try and minimize the risks as much

as possible so everything that you will see will be geared up to that they will

not want to take any risks because they don't sort of want that to be on their

hands which is quite appropriate when we when we are talking about the flu but

can you see what I'm talking about here the the difference between reality and

what you see and here is often detached and this this goes on this game goes on

in everything that I read research reports manager news conferences public

announcements all of these things will tell you stuff but it's you're more

interested in stuff that you're not being told and and more of the detail

behind there you have to think about what people are thinking about and why

they're saying things to really get to the underlying reality of any situation

and I'm saying this from a broad basis but I am using it in this particular

scenario to try and understand you know what people would say in Y so yeah my

judgment call on this was certain amount of value within the market some of that

value is gonna be removed by time decay I need to be on the right side of that

but I also need to make a judgement whether we think things are gonna get

much worse so my judgement was that you know it is going to progress obviously

but it probably isn't quite as bad as people have initially made out certainly

not in the short-term so it was quite an obvious trade for me in terms of what I

had to do and I was trading actively in and out of the market and I went into

one account and started actively getting involved before I realized I didn't

really have enough money within that account so what I actually did was I

ended up switching to another camp and using more money to be able to do this

trade but I'll bring up the screenshots for you to show the initial position and

and where the smaller amount is because this will be more realistic to risk that

you'll be willing to take we're using a relatively small amount of money I've