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  • the Corona virus, sending shock waves through the markets.

  • The Dow today closing down nearly 1200 points 1200 points.

  • That continues what has been market slaughter deep red over fears the virus could threaten the entire global economy.

  • In past four days, the Dow was shed more than 11%.

  • It is the worst decline since October of 2008 which is in the midst of the great recession.

  • Trillions of dollars are gone, and President Trump is upset because he thought he had been the voice of calm.

  • It was a very good press conference and basically was a calming press conference.

  • It was a conference to say we're doing well, well, doing well or not, it certainly was not calming.

  • Maybe because what he said is not what the medical experts are saying.

  • We have it so well under control.

  • I mean, we really have done a very good job.

  • It has become clear over the past few days that a pandemic is inevitable.

  • It's that kind of contradiction, which is not calming.

  • Caitlin Collins is outfront live outside the White House.

  • So, Caitlyn, how upset is President Trump over this market decline?

  • He watches almost nothing more closely than the market.

  • Well, and Aaron, it seems to be the primary reason that you've seen the president really try to put on a public face here when it comes to Corona virus.

  • And we'll have that press conference yesterday because on his way home from Air Force One, he was essentially watching all the coverage of this and growing frustrated.

  • We were being told by sources essentially feeling like his administration was being blamed for not doing enough and not being prepared enough.

  • And a lot of that had to do was the president was keeping his eyes on these numbers now.

  • He hadn't been overly concerned about Corona virus until you started seeing on Monday, when the Dow closed over 1000 points down after it plunged there, something the president later tried to dismiss in India is just a one off.

  • But then, of course, you've seen this period continue for several days now, and the president is trying to blame it on a factor of things, not just the Corona virus.

  • I mean, you saw him in the briefing room yesterday say that he believed part of it might have had to do the latest Democratic debate, though of course, that debate happened on Tuesday after the markets had already closed Monday and Tuesday.

  • But it certainly is.

  • The primary factor of what you're seeing is the president's response to this.

  • It's really what drove him to replace Alex Cesar, the Health and Human Services secretary, as the leadership of this administration's response, and put vice president Pence and charge in addition to him growing fresher with him on other fronts.

  • But really, it is the driving factor here.

  • And Aaron, that is primarily because the president knows that the key to his re election in November is going to be a strong economy.

  • And that is something he tells time and time again at rallies like the one who's having tomorrow in South Carolina is talking to voters about the economy.

  • So you can expect likely Maur of that messaging coming from the president as this is something that they're trying to keep their eye on.

  • All right, Caitlin, thank you very much and outfront now.

  • Scott Minored, co founder and global chief investment officer.

  • Guggenheim Partners.

  • Dion Robin, markets editor at Axios, and Jim Bianco, economic analyst and president of Bianco research.

  • So it's got you know, we talked when it was down nearly 1000 points.

  • Now we're down significantly from there.

  • Will this get worse?

  • Uh, yeah, I think ultimately, Erin, it will.

  • I mean, I think for the moment, we may have found some near term support to give us some relief.

  • But, you know, as the virus continues to spread is that it appears that pandemic is inevitable.

  • Uh, we've got significant more downside risk for stocks.

  • That's not what people want to hear.

  • Scott.

  • No.

  • No, but I mean, I mean people, you know, I think part of the problem, Jim, is they've been hearing different things, right?

  • One thing from the CDC on the n i h.

  • Another from the president.

  • What do you think, Jim?

  • For where we go from here?

  • Yeah, I kind of agree with Scott.

  • I think if we start to see that, this becomes a wider spread pandemic and it should certainly looks that way.

  • It's going to cause it has been a revaluation in the markets, a revaluation of how businesses work, whether or not we're going to see a de globalization, whether or not we're going to see Borders closed, flights canceled.

  • Whether or not we're going to see widespread school closings here like we just saw today in Japan thes air, very destabilizing things for an economy.

  • And the fear is, is that we can't stop this from coming here.

  • Fortunately, it hasn't yet.

  • We can hope, but we don't know for sure.

  • I mean, and Dion, look, you have the president saying he's calming the markets, almost seemingly confounded by the fact that his words alone do not seem to be calming but saying it's under control.

  • It's fine.

  • And then, of course, you have, uh, the CDC saying a pandemic is inevitable, that contradiction in and of itself.

  • How troubling is that for markets?

  • Well, look, the markets and folks at home.

  • Regular folks at home, one of the president to come out and say something reassuring wanted him to come out and say something that was gonna calm everyone's fears because what's holding this economy up right now is consumer spending, its folks feeling good about the economy, feeling good about the job market, going out, spending money, restaurants, bars, the like.

  • When you when you have a situation like this, what you need is the president to come out and deliver a message of strength, but also one that people can believe in, one that can get people excited about going out on that honest and forthright.

  • And that's not what we got.

  • And we have just heard from the CDC.

  • Before the president spoke, we heard about a new case of Corona virus out in California after he spoke, and people had to look at that press conference and say, I don't believe what's going on here, And that's part of the problems that you know.

  • There have been contradiction between what the president's been saying and what the medical experts have been saying.

  • I mean, here's just one example This is last night on vaccines.

  • Here's the president.

  • The vaccine is coming along well, and in speaking to the doctors, we think this is something that we can develop fairly rapidly now.

  • It's not the full inaccuracy of that.

  • It's the implication that that gives to people right that there's gonna be a vaccine.

  • You know, that means imminent when he says it that way to most people.

  • But that is not what it actually means.

  • Here's the head of infectious diseases for the CDC on the exact same topic of a vaccine at the earliest, and efficacy trial would take an additional 6 to 8 months.

  • So although this is the fastest we have ever gone from a sequence of a virus to a trial, it still will not be any applicant pool to the epidemic unless we'd really wait about a year to a year and 1/2.

  • So when the president says rapidly and a vaccine, most people hearing it don't think a year to a year and 1/2 away, right?

  • I think the president is trying to comfort people as much as he can.

  • But you know, it comes off like some of the comments Herbert Hoover made that you know, the stock market was fine, that the economy was basically sound when we were on the brink of the Depression.

  • So, you know, there's sort of this credibility gap I think the president has in this area, and the more other experts come out and talk, and the president says things that don't acknowledge how severe the problem is, the bigger the credibility gap.

  • So, Jim, at least 2800 people we understand have died globally from the Corona virus, and obviously those numbers could be a bit different.

  • You know, there's all kinds of reporting questions now.

  • We don't necessarily even know who had it.

  • But that's the number we have in the swine flu outbreak, which people may have for gotten.

  • But it was in 2009.

  • There's a study from the CDC that said up to 575,000 people could have died from that.

  • All right, 575,000 people.

  • Right now we're looking at 2800.

  • That was just a few years ago when that happened, markets did fall initially, but then a month later, up 11% 6 months later, up 40%.

  • That was coming off a huge blow for the market.

  • I understand that.

  • But could we see a similar bounce back this time on Lee?

  • I think if we see that this disease is brought under control and somewhat contained or eradicated and I just don't mean in the United States, I mean everywhere else.

  • I think what's bothering markets more than just what's happening in United States is every day we get more stories out of Italy, South Korea, Iran.

  • Now the rest of Europe is well, too, in Japan that their numbers are growing exponentially.

  • In terms of this disease, the entire planet's got to get a hold of this blood disease, not just the United States.

  • In order for there to be some comfort, we have put together a global supply chain with just in time inventory spread out all over the world.

  • What we did not anticipate was something like this that was just going to stop it in its tracks like it has in China.

  • And this is why it's become more of an economic story now than it did during swine flu 2009 or stars in 2003 or anything before it wasn't Amazon prime then, and I don't say that lightly right people's view of what stability and comfort in daily life is, which is getting what you want exactly when you order it, it could be impacted me.

  • Dion Trump likes to take credit for the market.

  • He views the stock market is the linchpin of his success, frankly, and he says that that is why he should be re elected because he's the guy who brings the market up here.

  • He is one of the reasons the stock market's gone up so much in the last few days as people think we're doing so well after I win the election.

  • I think the stock market's gonna boom like it's never boomed before, just like it did, by the way, after I won the last election.

  • This is how he defines himself, you know, and and look, that is the risk you run, the risk you take when you start putting everything on the stock market, the stock market, give it in the stock market, take it the way it can be very volatile.

  • We've seen that.

  • Obviously, over the last three days, we've seen right now what I think looks like the fastest 10% correction in the history of the market over just the past six sessions.

  • So this is not something that's, ah, small thing, the market clearly having a very nature reaction, and it doesn't seem like the president is helping things and then you've got the Democrats now Bernie Sanders at all starting to pile on here, pointing out the flaws in what Trump's doing and that can't be open things in confidence.

  • Scott.

  • Before we go, I know you're on board advisory board for the New York Fed.

  • Usually you don't have comfort.

  • They don't call you about things.

  • It's always linked to meetings.

  • If they called you about this, they called today and look, they're gathering information.

  • You know Chairman Powell.

  • Lot of people don't realize this is hosting ah conference this weekend with other central bankers from around the world.

  • In Europe, there is going to be some kind of a discussion or statement regarding some sort of monetary coordination.

  • That's not something the feds telling me.

  • That's just my intuition.

  • Is your intuition based on what they were asking right?

  • Which obviously, obviously would be a very significant for a lot of things.

  • Last time we've had something like that, of course, was the great recession.

  • Well, that's right, and they're in.

  • One thing I would say here is in some ways this is actually I think, worse than the great recession.

the Corona virus, sending shock waves through the markets.

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特朗普的新聞發佈會為何適得其反? (Why Trump's press conference backfired)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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