Name: 民主黨如何擊敗特朗普？| 經濟學人 (How can the Democrats beat Trump? | The Economist)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T08:55:52.000Z
Duration: 12 min 59 s
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The 2020 presidential election is set to be one of the closest...

...and ugliest in modern American history

You got a choice between sleepy Joe and crazy Bernie

Donald Trump, determined not to go down as a one-term president...

The Democrats are desperate to pick the candidate most likely to beat him

...in the office of the president of the United States

Poll after poll shows that the overriding priority...

...for most Democrats is beating Donald Trump in the 2020 election

Would this work against Trump, could this beat Trump...

...would this get Trump out of the White House?

Even if that candidate doesn’t completely share their political views

Donald Trump is a stronger candidate than his low approval rating suggests

...who are dealing with very strong economies...

...are in almost unbeatable positions for re-election

He filed his re-election-campaign paperwork the day he got sworn in

He’s been running for re-election from day one

Despite three years of political tumult...

...a lack of serious legislative accomplishments...

...Donald Trump looks poised for a roughly 50:50 shot at re-election

We will keep that beautiful, beautiful White House

But those fighting to lead the Democrats...

...are divided over what to offer Americans in Trump’s place

You’ve got Joe Biden, the former vice-president

Michael Bloomberg, the self-made self-funding billionaire

And Amy Klobuchar, the moderate Midwesterner

Candidates fight it out in a series of state primaries and caucuses...

Who could be Donald Trump’s most forceful foe?

...is to look at how Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008 and 2012

...by creating a coalition that had never been created before

We have the most diverse coalition of Americans...

...that we’ve seen in a long, long time

Barack Obama united a diverse range of groups

...and did well enough with white, working-class voters

...part wanting to get past the eight years of Bush

And he balanced somewhat liberal positions...

...with a pragmatic streak as a candidate

...has taken on an almost mythical significance for Democrats

Hillary Clinton tried to replicate it in 2016...

Hillary Clinton lost support among African-American voters...

...but they were more importantly less likely to turn out...

Her losses among white, working-class voters...

...in the Midwestern states were particularly harmful

The right votes in the right places are what counts

In 2016 Hillary Clinton actually won the popular vote by almost 3m

But she lost the election because in America...

...presidents aren’t directly elected...

Voters actually determine which candidate...

...will get the support of their state...

...the more votes it has to decide the presidency

...the party that wins the state’s popular vote...

...gets all of the state’s electoral college votes

Hillary Clinton won huge margins of voters...

...in large states like New York and California

Clinton won almost 2m more votes than Trump in New York...

...which translated to her winning 29 electoral college votes

She lost by slim margins in crucial states in the Midwest

Clinton lost Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania...

Yet it cost her 46 electoral college votes, and the election

...in the same three states in the Midwest

Barack Obama was victorious in all three states in 2008 and 2012

...is still the Democrats’ best bet to beat Trump

...that has proven successful in the past

...are almost guaranteed to vote for Democrats in 2020...

The real challenge is to appeal to the two groups...

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民主黨如何擊敗特朗普？| 經濟學人 (How can the Democrats beat Trump? | The Economist)

crucial

strategy

campaign

extreme