Name: 預測過去9屆總統選舉勝出的教授預測2020年美國大選勝出者 (Professor who predicted win of last 9 presidental elections project 2020 U.S. election winner)
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Our next guest has correctly predicted the last nine presidential elections from 1984

American University History Professor Allan Lichtman's popular vote predictions were perfect

including the 2000 election which the Supreme Court ultimately awarded to George W. Bush.

In 2016, he predicted an electoral college victory for Donald Trump who lost the popular

Professor Lichtman joins me now from Bethesda, Maryland.

Professor Lichtman, thank you so much for joining us.

Not only are your predictions overwhelmingly correct, but you often make them very early.

Can you give us an explanation of how your model works?

(You're really analyzing the performance of the party as a whole.

The candidate is almost secondary, here.)

Is it too early to make a prediction for 2020 or do you have that in your pocket yet?

Because back in May, you told CNN, Donald Trump will win the 2020 election unless the

"the Democrats grow a spine and do their constitutional duty and move into an impeachment inquiry.

But, I do want to point out that this election is unlike any other in a variety of ways.

One of which is that you have a huge field of democratic candidates.

The party is more important than the candidate when it comes to your model.

But, do you see any variance depending on who wins the democratic nomination.

You have candidates on one side of the spectrum - Sanders and Warren versus Biden.

How much does foreign policy, for instance, policy vis-a-vis North Korea, performance

impact a candidate or a party's win for 2020 presidential election?

some key factors that will shape the 2020 presidential election between now and November

Professor Allan Lichtman, many thanks for your fascinating insights this morning.

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預測過去9屆總統選舉勝出的教授預測2020年美國大選勝出者 (Professor who predicted win of last 9 presidental elections project 2020 U.S. election winner)

ultimately

absolutely

fascinating

impact