Name: 有什麼能讓標普500指數下跌？| 標普500指數下跌的原因是什麼？ (Can anything make the S&P 500 drop? | Charts that Count)
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and the US stock market is hitting an all-time high.

And in recent weeks and months the momentum

All of which raises a question: if slowing

earnings growth, a soft industrial economy,

a simmering trade conflict, military conflict in the Middle

enough to slow down the stock market, what on earth is?

Here you have a five-year chart of the S&P 500.

And over those five years, the index is up 60 per cent.

That's 80 per cent if you include dividends.

think of all the things that have happened.

Over the year as a whole, we have seen virtually

no earnings growth in aggregate among S&P 500 companies.

Over just the last four months of the year,

here, we have seen four consecutive months

of contraction in the industrial economy,

according to the ISM surveys of companies.

At the same time, though, the valuation of the stock market

The cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio

Let's not forget also what happened in September, when

money markets froze up and the Fed was forced to come

So there's been a tremendous rally, but not

And in fact, the rally, while it's been sharp,

About a quarter of the stock market returns last year

were taken up by just five big stocks, the likes of Apple,

Microsoft, Facebook, Google, and so forth.

we should have a stock market crash anytime soon,

whether this furious rally is sustainable.

Now the stock market bulls have a very simple argument

It is not only one word, it is three letters long,

as so long as the Fed keeps monetary policy loose and rates

low, the stock market will continue to go up.

And in fact, following the Fed, over not only the last five

years but over the last decade, has been a great plan.

A word of warning though, historically, there

is not a clear relationship between low rates and stock

In fact, the relationship has been all over the place.

The economy, in some respects, such as the consumer area,

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有什麼能讓標普500指數下跌？| 標普500指數下跌的原因是什麼？ (Can anything make the S&P 500 drop? | Charts that Count)

stretch

tremendous

conflict

sustainable