Name: 【新冠肺炎】新冠病毒到底有多嚴重？中國的數據可信度有多高？ (Why Coronavirus Estimates Are Higher Than China's Official Tally | WSJ)
Uploaded: 2020-03-30T21:01:20.000Z
Duration: 4 min 56 s

This massive metropolis in the center of China is at the heart of a virus outbreak that has gone global.

中國的這個重要都市，是目前全球爆發、新型冠狀病毒的發源地。

The first death from the new coronavirus outside of China.

「第一起在中國境外的新型冠狀病毒死亡案例。」

The cruise ship, the Diamond Princess remains quarantined in Yokohama.

鑽石公主號郵輪目前在橫濱市隔離。

More than 71,000 people have been infected around the world.

全球已有超過七萬一千人被感染。

In February, Chinese officials and state media touted a drop in the number of daily new confirmed cases.

二月時，中國官方與政府媒體估計每日確診案例的數字有下降。

(Speaking Chinese) The data of newly reported cases have been showing a downward trend.

(中文) 新增報告的病例波動下降。

But only hours later, local authorities released data showing a dramatic jump, partially due to a shift in the way new cases were diagnosed and confirmed.

但僅僅幾小時後，地方當局釋出資料，顯示由於診斷、確診的方式改變，案例急劇上升。

While the authorities said the goal behind the new criteria was to let more patients receive better treatment, this raised concerns that the scale of the outbreak has been larger than Chinese data had earlier suggested.

雖然官方說明改變診斷標準，是希望有更多病人能接受更好的治療，但這加深了人們的擔憂：疫情規模比中國資料顯示的還嚴重。

We thought there was better transparency coming out of China but it doesn't appear to be.

我們以為中國的資訊會更透明，但顯然沒有。

In response to the criticism, Beijing said it has been active and open toward cooperation with international experts.

回應各界批評，北京說當局態度積極，且開放與國際專家合作。

To independently assess the scale of the disease, groups of scientists around the world have been using mathematical modeling and their estimates so far exceed the officially reported numbers.

為了獨立評估疫情規模，全球有幾群科學家用數學模型運算，而他們目前所估計出的遠遠超過官方數字。

The new virus was first detected in December, and by mid-January, the number of cases was just over 40, but epidemiologists across the world thought that something wasn't right when three cases were confirmed outside of China.

在十二月時，病毒第一次被偵測到，而在一月中時，確診案例才剛過四十。但在中國境外有三起確診案例後，全球的流行病學家感覺事情不大對勁。

How could we have three or seven exported cases when there seemed to be relatively small numbers?

在確診數字相對小時，我們怎麼會有三到七個境外確診案例？

Christl Donnelly and her colleagues at the Imperial College London looked at the number of cases outside China, which they call exported, to calculate the scale of the outbreak.

倫敦帝國學院的 Christl Donnelly 和她的同事調查中國境外的案例，他們稱為那些案例為「傳播」，來估算疫情規模。

It has 19 million people in the metropolitan area and it has an international airport and it's interconnected.

它在大都會地區，有一千九百萬人、國際機場，是與國際接軌的。

So there're flights and people traveling to lots of places.

所以武漢有很多班機、旅行的人來來往往。

They used similar mathematical modeling developed during the H1N1 influenza outbreak in Mexico in 2009.

他們使用 2009 年墨西哥 H1N1 疫情爆發時的數學模型做運算。

If you look at the number of cases that have been exported and then there is a factor which you can use to then estimate the number of cases that there were in the source region.

如果你調查境外案例、發現某個確診原因後，就可以估計發源地區確診案例的數量。

Before the virus shut down the city, the international airport operated flights to dozens of major cities worldwide with more than 3,000 passengers traveling through the airport every day.

在武漢因為病毒封城前，武漢國際機場每天都有班機飛往全球重大城市，每日超過三千名乘客會在機場進出。

The researchers also assumed that 10 days likely passed between a person getting infected and the disease being detected.

研究員也臆斷一個人被感染、到被偵測出確診，大概已超過十天。

But you can get an idea by looking at the number of flights that came out, you know, what's the population size?

你可以透過調查班機數量、人口規模，有大致概念。

How many departures, international departures do you have on a given day?

一天中，有多少國際班機出境？

The Imperial College researchers estimated that over 1,700 people could have been infected in Wuhan by mid-January, indicating a massive gap between China's 41 confirmed cases reported at that time and their estimates.

帝國學院的研究者估計在一月中時，超過一千七百人可能已在武漢被感染，與當時中國的四十一個確診案例與官方數字差距甚大。

Other researchers did similar calculations based on the exported overseas cases and with several other variables and came to similar results.

其他研究員根據境外案例、一些小的變因，做了相似的估算，得到差不多的結果。

In later reports, scientists factored in new data and their numbers were still much bigger than Beijing's official tally of confirmed cases.

在更新的報告中，科學家分析新資料，而數字依舊比北京確診案例的官方數字大很多。

These findings give a rough picture and the margin of error remains high in part because of other factors like the fact that human-to-human transmission was confirmed overseas.

這些發現給了個大致樣貌，不過錯誤可能很多，因為仍有其他變動因素，像是人與人相互傳染的境外確診案例。

Many people in China have been critical of how Beijing has dealt with the crisis and have been skeptical about the official data.

很多在中國的人批評北京處理危機的方式，也對官方數字存疑。

Donnelly says that the Imperial College's analysis is not aimed at criticizing Beijing's efforts but trying to look at what was going on and what might be expected from the virus.

Donnelly 說帝國學院的分析不是為了批評北京的成效，而是想要調查實際發生的事情，並預測未來可能發生的事。

She says that there are a myriad of reasons why China's figures might not reflect reality.

她說有大量的理由，中國的數字可能無法反映事實。

It's difficult for any country, if a new disease starts in your country, there's a lot to be identified to begin with so when you first start, you really don't know what the potential is.

對任何國家而言都很難，如果疾病開始於你的國家，有許多事情需要被確認。剛開始調查時，很難知道潛在問題多嚴重。

What makes it even harder to diagnose the coronavirus is that people infected may show very mild symptoms like fever and coughing that are also common in other types of infections.

讓新型冠狀病毒更難被診斷的原因是，被感染的人們有的症狀相當輕微，像是其他感冒症狀常出現的發燒和咳嗽。」

In an effort to battle the virus, Beijing has spent about 800 million USD, deployed thousands of medical staff and built two field hospitals in days.

為了打擊病毒，北京已花費大約八億元，在數日內部署上千名醫療人員、建立兩所戰地醫院。

China is doing many good things that's slowing the virus and this has to be recognized.

人們需要認知，中國正在做許多好事來減緩疫情。

While the WHO repeatedly praised China, other public health experts have been more critical.

世界衛生組織不斷讚美中國，不過其他健康專家對中國有許多不滿。

It took the agency nearly two weeks to get a go-ahead from Beijing to send a group of experts to China to conduct joint research with Chinese scientists.

組織花了將近兩星期，才獲得北京准許，將專家送至中國、與中國科學家聯合研究。

Epidemiologists say they're still learning about the new virus and hope their research will help officials in China to put effective measures in place to tackle the outbreak.

流行病學家說他們仍在研究新病毒，也希望他們的研究會幫助中國官方，用更有效的措施處理疫情。