But is your brain your own worst enemy?

不過我們的大腦是否就是最大的罪魁禍首呢？

Here are four of the many ways your brain's processing shortcuts

這裡會介紹大腦如何透過四種背後處理捷徑

are playing tricks on you.

對我們的認知耍把戲。

Welcome to cognitive bias.

這部影片中將帶大家認識認知偏誤。

Understanding a bit about it could change the way you see the world.

只需稍加了解認知偏誤即可改變你看待這個世界的方式。

So here goes.

讓我們開始介紹吧！

A recent peer-reviewed scientific study found caffeine consumption

近期有一個同儕審查的科學研究發現，咖啡因攝取

is strongly linked with developing cancer.

與誘發癌症有很大的關聯。

On this scale,

針對此論點

to what extent do you agree or disagree

你對於這項研究的發現結果

with the findings of this study?

的同意或不同意程度是如何呢？

Relax,

別緊張

this study is fake.

這研究是假的。

However, your answer will be directly influenced

不過你的回答會根據你攝取的

by the amount of caffeine you drink.

咖啡因量而受到直接影響。

Cognitive bias number one...

第一種認知偏誤：

Self-serving bias is your brain's

自利性偏差，這是大腦

strong natural tendency to interpret information in such a way as

強烈的先天傾向，將接收到的資訊

to unduly favour itself.

過度與自己產生關連。

In this experiment,

在這個實驗中

caffeine drinkers rated the study's validity consistently lower

有攝取咖啡因的人對這項研究的可信度相較於

than non-caffeine drinkers.

未攝取咖啡因者會更低。

Subjects with a negative personal stake in the outcome of research

如果研究項目結果與個人利益是相違背的

were less convinced by the data.

則當事人便難以相信資料的信度。

How irrational.

很不理性吧！

Your brain will reject perfectly viable information

我們的大腦會完全拒絕正確可靠的資訊

simply because it has negative implications

只因為該資訊對你個人的信仰和行為

for your personal beliefs and behaviours.

有負面的暗示。

Likewise, it will tend to eagerly accept information

相反的，大腦先天傾向渴望接收到帶有

with positive implications,

正面暗示的資訊

even if that information is flawed or inconclusive.

即便該資訊有瑕疵或尚無定論。

So why does your brain do this?

為什麼大腦要這麼做呢？

Self-serving bias protects one's fragile ego from threat and injury.

自利性偏差會保護個人的脆弱自我受到威脅和傷害。

That last group presentation you gave was either a success,

你負責的團體簡報若成功圓滿

thanks to your brilliant work.

這都是多虧你的才幹。

Or was a failure, thanks to everyone else.

若是失敗收場，大家都有責任的。

You gotta look after that ego.

你必須顧好你的自尊心。

OK, a new thought experiment.

好，讓我們來看看另個新的想法實驗。

Look at this parking.

請看停在那排的車子。

What do you think of the red car's driver?

你對紅色車主的印象會是甚麼呢？

If you thought poorly of the driver's character,

如果你對紅色車主有不好的印象

you have performed cognitive bias number two.

就表示大腦執行了第二種認知偏誤。

This is your brain's attempt to explain behaviour

這是大腦在嘗試解釋行為

by placing undue emphasis on internal characteristics of the person,

藉由過度強調對方的內部特質

rather than external factors.

而非外部因子的方式。

Consider that just moments ago,

然而如果考量到由於不久前

these cars were parked in a way

這些車子停車預留的空間太少

that left the red car's driver with little option.

造成紅色車主移動車輛的困擾。

Does that change your opinion?

這樣想是否會改變你的想法呢？

Fundamental attribution error is often performed when driving.

基本歸因謬誤通常在駕駛時發生。

I'm speeding because I'm in a rush,

我超速有理因為我在趕時間

whereas, they're speeding because they're an inconsiderate maniac.

然而其他人超速則是不顧他人安危的瘋狂行為。

Your brain has limited capacity to interpret the world.

我們的大腦對於世界的認知是有侷限性的。

It can observe the badly parked car

大腦可以觀察到亂停車的車輛

and understand that someone put it there,

並知道是有人停在那裡的

but that's it.

但也僅只於此。

To theorise about the historical arrangement of the cars,

若要大腦去將車子停放的順序

or the situational needs of the driver

或是駕駛當下的情況需求理論化

is a complex and potentially unending use

對大腦而言則是一件複雜又無止盡

of finite cognitive resources.

耗用認知資源的事情。

On to the next one.

接下來

Here's a famous experiment by Peter Wason.

這是彼得華生的一項非常有名的實驗

Play along at home.

實驗在家中進行。

Subjects were given a three number sequence,

實驗中依序提供受測者三個數字

told that it follows a simple rule, and asked to figure out the rule.

告知受測者這三個數字間有一個簡單的規則，請受測者思考規則為何。

They were allowed to suggest their own number sequences

受測者可以猜測他們自己的號碼順序

and told to continue until they were confident

並且可以一直猜，直到受測者覺得有信心

that they had cracked the rule.

已破解規則為止。

Were you thinking of a sequence like this?

你有想到可能會是這樣的順序嗎？

This follows the rule.

這其中是有規則性的。

And another, something like this?

或是這樣的組合？

This also follows the rule.

這其中也是有規則性的。

So, what is the rule?

那麼規則性究竟是甚麼呢？

It's to multiply by two, right?

是將數字乘以 2 嗎？

Well...no.

嗯 ... 不正確。

Your brain just performed another cognitive bias,

這時大腦出現了另一種認知偏誤。

The actual rules is any sequence of numbers in ascending order.

真正的規則性其實是無論是所有數字的順序都是由小到大排序。

So what went wrong?

所以究竟是哪裡出錯呢？

Your brain landed on its first hypothesis, multiply by two,

大腦相信其第一個假設，是 2 的倍數

from there, every suggested number sequence was used

從那之後都依此假設推測數字排序

to confirm that initial hypothesis rather than actually test it.

以確認合乎初始假設而非實際去加以驗證。

A rational approach would be to attempt to disprove this hypothesis

理性的方式應該是嘗試反駁假設

by suggesting other number sequences that didn't follow it.

推測其他非 2 的倍數的排列。

But, your brain isn't rational.

然而，大腦不是理性的

It has a tendency to search for, interpret, favour and recall

它傾向搜尋、詮釋、贊同和回憶

information that confirms its pre-existing beliefs,

與其預先存在信仰、數字等等

numbers or otherwise.

相符的資訊。

Confirmation bias is based on limitations

確認偏誤是受限於大腦處理

in the brain's ability to handle complex tasks,

複雜任務的能力

and the shortcuts that it uses as a result.

以及大腦用來得到結果所使用的捷徑。

The brain finds it really difficult

對於大腦而言，要同時對各種

to test alternative hypotheses in parallel.

可能假設進行驗證實在很困難。

It's good, but it's not that good.

頭腦的功能很好，但是沒到那麼強大。

OK,

好

so you've learnt a few cognitive biases,

現在大家認識了幾種認知偏誤

you're now prepared to combat them in your own brain.

就可以準備好在大腦中戰勝這些偏見

After all, knowing is half the battle, right?

無論如何，了解就是成功的一半，是吧？

Well, not exactly.

不盡然喔！

That's cognitive bias number four.

這就是第四種認知偏誤。

The action figure and TV character, G.I. Joe,

著名的 TV 動畫動作角色 G.I. Joe

famously said, "Knowing is half the battle."

有句名言：「知道情報就是成功的一半。」

When it comes to cognitive bias, he was well out.

不過這個論點在認知偏誤上，是有問題的。

Knowing is one thing,

知道是一碼事

but habits, situations and other processes still rule the roost.

但是習慣、情境和其他過程仍然主導大局

Self-awareness wont beat it.

自我覺知無法與之匹敵。

You may know a badly parked car does not make a bad person,

你知道停車習慣不良不代表駕駛就是個壞人

but you'll still feel negatively towards them.

但是你仍然會對這些人有負面觀感。

You may know your brain will take shortcuts to confirm the hypotheses

儘管你知道大腦會利用捷徑合乎

it already holds,

其已既定的假設

but it will still take those shortcuts.

但是大腦還是依舊會抄捷徑。

You may know that your brain will protect your ego at every turn,

就算你知道大腦會隨時保護你的自我

but the ego security will still be out in force.

但是自我安全仍然隨時暴露在危險中。

So knowing about cognitive biases is way less than half the battle.

因此了解認知偏誤的概念絕對不是成功的一半。

Even knowing the G.I. Joe fallacy about knowing about cognitive biases,

而我們即便知道了 G.I. Joe 關於認知偏誤上的謬論

is still way less than half the battle.

仍然不會幫助我們更容易成功。

Funny how your brain can pontificate about its own limitations

很可笑吧，大腦可以大談闊論自己的限制

but do almost nothing about them.

但實際上卻拿它們一點辦法也沒有。

But, in the true spirit of cognitive bias

不過認知偏誤的真正精神在於

you will be able to point it out in others.

你可以指出他人的認知偏誤。