until new discoveries brought us more food,

直到發現新方法為我們帶來更多食物，令我們有更長的壽命

and made us live longer.

在短短一百年間，人口多了三倍

In just a hundred years, the human population quadrupled.

這使我們預想未來可能會是災難式的過度擁擠

This led to apocalyptic visions of an overcrowded earth.

但人口成長率其實在1960年代達到頂峰

But the population growth rate actually peaked in the 1960s.

之後，因國家工業化和發展，生育率大跌

Since then, fertility rates have crashed as countries industrialize and develop.

在本世紀末，預計人口將平衡在大約110億

The world population is now expected to balance out at around 11 billion by the end of the century.

但宏觀地看不免霧裡看花

But the big picture conceals the details.

讓我們只看一個地區－－薩哈拉以南非洲

Let's look at one region in particular.

在2019年，有10億的人口分別居住在46個不同的國家

Sub-Saharan Africa.

儘管人口成長率在過去幾十年已經減緩

In 2019, it was home to a billion people living in 46 countries.

但是與其他地區相比仍然高出許多

Although its growth rate has slowed down in the last few decades,

儘管有些人預測在2100年後會達到26億人

it's still much higher than in the rest of the world.

而有些預測是50億人 但是，如此高的成長率對任何社會而言都會是很大的挑戰

While some projections expect around 2.6 billion people,

何況撒哈拉以南的非洲更是世界上最窮的地區

others reckon with up to 5 billion by 2100.

難道薩哈拉以南非洲注定失敗嗎？

Such growth would be a huge challenge for any society.

而且，為什麼上述不同的預測會相差了24億人？

But Sub-Saharan Africa is also the poorest region on earth.

如同往常，事情很複雜

So, is Sub-Saharan Africa doomed?

撒哈拉以南非洲是一個編造的地理劃分

And, why did the projections vary by 2.4 billion people?

而且從很多方面來看，這樣的劃分沒什麼用處

As always, it's complicated.

波札那與獅子山的距離，就跟愛爾蘭島到哈薩克一樣遠

Sub-Saharan Africa is a made-up idea,

而且他們彼此也有很多共同點

and in many ways, unhelpful one.

如果不概括一點的介紹的話

Botswana is as far away from Sierra Leone,

這部影片會有一小時那麼長！

as Ireland is from Kazakhstan.

為了做這支影片，我們與許多的科學家做過討論

And they have about as much in common.

而他們對很多事情都持不同的意見

But without generalizing a little bit,

主要在生育率與貧窮的相關程度上分歧

this video would be an hour long!

我們已經盡力去總結我們的研究與他們說的話

We've also talked to many different scientists for this video,

但是請抱持懷疑的態度

and they disagreed on a lot of things.

並且，當我們深入討論時，可以參考我們的來源資料

Mainly, on how much fertility matters to poverty.

好的，那就讓我們再次以全球的視角來看

We've done our best to summarize our research and what they told us,

數十年前，許多的亞洲國家的狀況與現今的亞撒哈拉非洲一樣

but take it with a grain of salt,

大部分的人口都生活在極度貧窮下

and check out our sources when we discussed this in more detail.

而生育率非常的高

Okay, let's zoom out to the global perspective again.

看孟加拉當作例子

A few decades ago, many countries in Asia were at a similar point to Sub-Saharan Africa today.

在1960年代，平均一個女人在一生中會有7個小孩

Large parts of the population were living in extreme poverty,

其中的25%在5歲之前就死掉了

and birth rates were very high.

而存活的人中

Take Bangladesh.

只有1/5的人能夠學習讀與寫

In the 1960s, the average woman had 7 children in her lifetime.

預期壽命只有大概45歲

25% of them died before they turned 5,

而人均收入也在許多國家中敬陪末座

and of the ones that survived,

因此，在1960年代初期

only one of five would learn to read and write.

孟加拉開始實行計畫生育

Life expectancy was about 45,

這個計畫根據三大重點

and per capita income was among the lowest in the world.

第一，教育可以改變女性的未來願景

So, beginning in the 1960s,

有較高受教程度的女性傾向於減少生育

Bangladesh started a family planning program,

並且會比較晚生

based on three main pillars.

第二，較好的醫療衛生可以降低兒童死亡率

1. Education helped to change women's outlook.

促使家長想要減少生育

Women with a higher education tend to want fewer kids,

因為他們現在的存活率比較高了

and become mothers later in life.

第三，實地人員推廣各種避孕藥具，即使是最偏僻的地方

2. Better health care lowered child mortality,

這讓避孕藥具的使用率從1975年的8%

leading to parents' wanting fewer children,

到2019年的76%

because they could expect them to survive.

在所有的計畫並行下，人口增長率大幅減緩

3. Field workers brought contraceptives even to the remotest areas,

在1960年，平均每個女性有7個小孩

which drove contraceptive use from 8% in 1975,

1995年，4個

to 76% in 2019.

接著，2019年，降低到2個

Together, these measures greatly slowed down population growth.

此計畫改變了國家的人口結構以及經濟

In 1960, the average Bangladeshi women had 7 kids.

以前，許多小孩被生下來

In 1995, 4,

但在他們沒來得及貢獻社會前就去世了

and, in 2019, it was down to 2.

當小孩夭折大幅減少，而生育率也下降時，事情開始改變

This also changed the country's demographics and the economy.

孩子們獲得教育

Before, many children were born,

並且成為有生產力的成年人

but died before they got to contribute to society.

政府能夠轉移一部份用來降低孩童死亡率的資源

As far fewer kids die and fewer kids are born, things change.

拿來促進經濟

Kids get an education,

到2024，孟加拉預計能夠擺脫最低度開發國家

and turn into productive adults.

並且被歸類為開發中國家

The government was able to shift some of their resources

其他亞洲的國家，像是南韓、印度、泰國，或是菲律賓

from lowering child mortality to boosting the economy.

都經歷過相似的發展過程

By 2024, Bangladesh is expected to graduate from the category of least developed countries

甚至更快

to the status of a developing economy.

投資醫療以及教育促使生育率降低

Other Asian countries like South Korea, India, Thailand or the Philippines

進而改變人口結構

have gone through a similar process,

使政府能夠推動經濟

often even faster.

那為什麼同樣的事情並沒有發生在撒哈拉以南非洲呢？

Investment in health and education led to lower birth rates,

整體上看來，非洲在孩童死亡率上已經有很大的進步

which changed the composition of the population,

但是特別在撒哈拉以南非洲

and enabled governments to boost the economy.

教育進步的速度比世界上的其他地方都還要慢

Why didn't the same thing happen everywhere in Sub-Saharan Africa?

雖然避孕藥具的使用自從1990以來，總共已經翻倍了

Africa, as a whole, has made considerable progress with childhood mortality.

在青少年中，依然有大約60%的人避孕藥具的需求未被滿足

but especially in Sub-Saharan Africa,

原因滿複雜的

education has improved slower than in other parts of the world.

也不太可能給出一個標準答案

And, while in total, contraceptive use has doubled in the region since 1990,

非洲是一個有著多元文化和人文的大地方。

the unmet need for modern contraception among adolescents is still at about 60%.

但是有幾個主要因素。

The reasons for this are complicated,

許多撒哈拉以南非洲的國家直到最近數十年才結束被殖民的苦難

and it's impossible to give a single answer here.

且在追求獨立的路上也經歷許多困難

Africa is a big place with diverse cultures and people.

這些年輕的國家通常混雜了許多不同種族的人，沒辦法團結

But there are a few main factors.

有些地方多次地發生內戰、

Many Sub-Saharan Nations have suffered under colonization until only a few decades ago,

軍事衝突，或是動盪的政局

and had rough transition periods towards independence.

這些影響造成基礎建設以及醫療保健很難推廣

The young nations were often ethnically heterogeneous and lacked unity.

因此，非洲的出發點比亞洲來的差。

Some areas have been repeatedly racked by civil wars,

外援以及它的運用，尤其是在冷戰時期

military conflicts or suffered under unstable governments,

也是一個具爭議的議題

which made it really hard to expand infrastructure and health care.

但是這個主題太複雜了，不是用幾句話就能概括的

So, Africa had a worse starting point than Asia.

所以，我們打算在將來做一個影片來專題介紹

Foreign aid and how it was applied, especially during the cold war,

最後一點，因為一些文化風俗

is also a contentious issue.

使得在非洲談論家庭計畫變得困難

But this topic is too complex to summarize in a few sentences,

有批評說，嘗試將生育率降低是對文化以及習俗的冒犯

so we'll make a whole new video about it in the future.

但是閉口不談必不是解決問題的方法

And lastly, there are cultural aspects that

但並不是我們所說的這些都適用於非洲每個國家

make talking about family plan in the context of Africa difficult.

畢竟總共有46個國家那麼多

Critics say that trying to bring fertility down is an intrusion into culture and tradition.

有些國家深陷困境，有些蓬勃發展

But not speaking about an issue will not help solve it.

但他們都與彼此不同，也有著自己獨特的問題

Not all of these things apply to every country in the region.

如果人口成長率不變的話，

We're talking about 46 countries after all,

那麼撒哈拉以南非洲 會在2100年後超過40億人

some of them deeply troubled,

好吧，那可以做什麼事？

others already flourishing,

事實上，非常多！

all different and facing unique problems.

尤其是投資在幫助建立教育系統、

If population growth continues at its present rate,

家庭計畫，以及醫療保健

then Sub-Saharan Africa could grow to more than 4 billion people by 2100.

出人意料地，很多小改變可以造成極大的影響

Okay. So, what can be done?

舉例來說，如果一個女性受到比較好的教育

Actually, a lot!

並且晚兩年才生小孩

Especially, investment and aid that helped to build systems for education,

在這個世代與下個世代之間如此小的差距

family planning, and health care.

就可以讓2100時的人口減少4億人

Surprisingly small changes could have an extreme impact.

同時總數有36億人

For example, if women get a better education,

假如每個非洲女性都可以接受教育以及家庭計畫，

and have their first child just two years later in life.

避孕措施的普及使得大家可以自己決定要不要有小孩

This tiny gap between this generation and the next one

如果每個家庭都可以決定要生幾個小孩，

would lead to 400 million fewer people in 2100,

那麼預計的人口數就可以降低30%，達到28億人

with 3.6 billion in total.

這並不只是理論而已，

If education and family planning are made available to every African women,

已經有例子可證實，我們的樂觀不是沒有理由的

universal access to contraception makes having kids a decision.

在衣索比亞，非洲人口第二多的國家

If families get to choose how many kids they want,

在相對較短的時間內，有了很大的進步

birth projections fall by 30%, to 2.8. billion people.

改善醫療服務使得孩童死亡率大幅下降

This isn't just theory.

從1990的20%降到7%

There are already examples that are reason for optimism.

有30%的年預算投資在教育上，

Ethiopia, the African country with the second-biggest population,

且學校的數量在20年間增加了25倍

has made a lot of progress in a relatively short amount of time.

因此，總結來說

Improving health services lead to a drop in child mortality

前方的路上充滿了各種挑戰，但是他們絕對不是無法解決

from 20% to 7% since 1990.

撒哈拉以南非洲並不需要憐憫或是施捨

And up to 30% of the annual budget was invested in education,

而是需要關注以及恰當的投資

and the number of schools increased 25-fold over two decades.

這是一個有豐富資源、文化，以及具有潛力的地區

So, summarizing,

如果一切順利，

there are serious challenges ahead,

我們將可以預期看到類似於30年前發生於大部分亞洲國家的大逆轉

but they are far from unsolvable.

（呱呱）

Sub-Saharan Africa does not need pity or gifts,

but attention and fair investment.

It's a region rich in resources, culture, and potential.

If things go right,

we'll see a turn-around similar to the one we've seen across most of Asia

in the last 30 years.

(quack)