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  • For most of our history, the human population grew slowly,

    在我們的大部分歷史中, 人口的增長較為緩慢

  • until new discoveries brought us more food,

    直到發現新方法為我們帶來更多食物,令我們有更長的壽命

  • and made us live longer.

    在短短一百年間,人口多了三倍

  • In just a hundred years, the human population quadrupled.

    這使我們預想未來可能會是災難式的過度擁擠

  • This led to apocalyptic visions of an overcrowded earth.

    但人口成長率其實在1960年代達到頂峰

  • But the population growth rate actually peaked in the 1960s.

    之後,因國家工業化和發展,生育率大跌

  • Since then, fertility rates have crashed as countries industrialize and develop.

    在本世紀末,預計人口將平衡在大約110億

  • The world population is now expected to balance out at around 11 billion by the end of the century.

    但宏觀地看不免霧裡看花

  • But the big picture conceals the details.

    讓我們只看一個地區--薩哈拉以南非洲

  • Let's look at one region in particular.

    在2019年,有10億的人口分別居住在46個不同的國家

  • Sub-Saharan Africa.

    儘管人口成長率在過去幾十年已經減緩

  • In 2019, it was home to a billion people living in 46 countries.

    但是與其他地區相比仍然高出許多

  • Although its growth rate has slowed down in the last few decades,

    儘管有些人預測在2100年後會達到26億人

  • it's still much higher than in the rest of the world.

    而有些預測是50億人 但是,如此高的成長率對任何社會而言都會是很大的挑戰

  • While some projections expect around 2.6 billion people,

    何況撒哈拉以南的非洲更是世界上最窮的地區

  • others reckon with up to 5 billion by 2100.

    難道薩哈拉以南非洲注定失敗嗎?

  • Such growth would be a huge challenge for any society.

    而且,為什麼上述不同的預測會相差了24億人?

  • But Sub-Saharan Africa is also the poorest region on earth.

    如同往常,事情很複雜

  • So, is Sub-Saharan Africa doomed?

    撒哈拉以南非洲是一個編造的地理劃分

  • And, why did the projections vary by 2.4 billion people?

    而且從很多方面來看,這樣的劃分沒什麼用處

  • As always, it's complicated.

    波札那與獅子山的距離,就跟愛爾蘭島到哈薩克一樣遠

  • Sub-Saharan Africa is a made-up idea,

    而且他們彼此也有很多共同點

  • and in many ways, unhelpful one.

    如果不概括一點的介紹的話

  • Botswana is as far away from Sierra Leone,

    這部影片會有一小時那麼長!

  • as Ireland is from Kazakhstan.

    為了做這支影片,我們與許多的科學家做過討論

  • And they have about as much in common.

    而他們對很多事情都持不同的意見

  • But without generalizing a little bit,

    主要在生育率與貧窮的相關程度上分歧

  • this video would be an hour long!

    我們已經盡力去總結我們的研究與他們說的話

  • We've also talked to many different scientists for this video,

    但是請抱持懷疑的態度

  • and they disagreed on a lot of things.

    並且,當我們深入討論時,可以參考我們的來源資料

  • Mainly, on how much fertility matters to poverty.

    好的,那就讓我們再次以全球的視角來看

  • We've done our best to summarize our research and what they told us,

    數十年前,許多的亞洲國家的狀況與現今的亞撒哈拉非洲一樣

  • but take it with a grain of salt,

    大部分的人口都生活在極度貧窮下

  • and check out our sources when we discussed this in more detail.

    而生育率非常的高

  • Okay, let's zoom out to the global perspective again.

    看孟加拉當作例子

  • A few decades ago, many countries in Asia were at a similar point to Sub-Saharan Africa today.

    在1960年代,平均一個女人在一生中會有7個小孩

  • Large parts of the population were living in extreme poverty,

    其中的25%在5歲之前就死掉了

  • and birth rates were very high.

    而存活的人中

  • Take Bangladesh.

    只有1/5的人能夠學習讀與寫

  • In the 1960s, the average woman had 7 children in her lifetime.

    預期壽命只有大概45歲

  • 25% of them died before they turned 5,

    而人均收入也在許多國家中敬陪末座

  • and of the ones that survived,

    因此,在1960年代初期

  • only one of five would learn to read and write.

    孟加拉開始實行計畫生育

  • Life expectancy was about 45,

    這個計畫根據三大重點

  • and per capita income was among the lowest in the world.

    第一,教育可以改變女性的未來願景

  • So, beginning in the 1960s,

    有較高受教程度的女性傾向於減少生育

  • Bangladesh started a family planning program,

    並且會比較晚生

  • based on three main pillars.

    第二,較好的醫療衛生可以降低兒童死亡率

  • 1. Education helped to change women's outlook.

    促使家長想要減少生育

  • Women with a higher education tend to want fewer kids,

    因為他們現在的存活率比較高了

  • and become mothers later in life.

    第三,實地人員推廣各種避孕藥具,即使是最偏僻的地方

  • 2. Better health care lowered child mortality,

    這讓避孕藥具的使用率從1975年的8%

  • leading to parents' wanting fewer children,

    到2019年的76%

  • because they could expect them to survive.

    在所有的計畫並行下,人口增長率大幅減緩

  • 3. Field workers brought contraceptives even to the remotest areas,

    在1960年,平均每個女性有7個小孩

  • which drove contraceptive use from 8% in 1975,

    1995年,4個

  • to 76% in 2019.

    接著,2019年,降低到2個

  • Together, these measures greatly slowed down population growth.

    此計畫改變了國家的人口結構以及經濟

  • In 1960, the average Bangladeshi women had 7 kids.

    以前,許多小孩被生下來

  • In 1995, 4,

    但在他們沒來得及貢獻社會前就去世了

  • and, in 2019, it was down to 2.

    當小孩夭折大幅減少,而生育率也下降時,事情開始改變

  • This also changed the country's demographics and the economy.

    孩子們獲得教育

  • Before, many children were born,

    並且成為有生產力的成年人

  • but died before they got to contribute to society.

    政府能夠轉移一部份用來降低孩童死亡率的資源

  • As far fewer kids die and fewer kids are born, things change.

    拿來促進經濟

  • Kids get an education,

    到2024,孟加拉預計能夠擺脫最低度開發國家

  • and turn into productive adults.

    並且被歸類為開發中國家

  • The government was able to shift some of their resources

    其他亞洲的國家,像是南韓、印度、泰國,或是菲律賓

  • from lowering child mortality to boosting the economy.

    都經歷過相似的發展過程

  • By 2024, Bangladesh is expected to graduate from the category of least developed countries

    甚至更快

  • to the status of a developing economy.

    投資醫療以及教育促使生育率降低

  • Other Asian countries like South Korea, India, Thailand or the Philippines

    進而改變人口結構

  • have gone through a similar process,

    使政府能夠推動經濟

  • often even faster.

    那為什麼同樣的事情並沒有發生在撒哈拉以南非洲呢?

  • Investment in health and education led to lower birth rates,

    整體上看來,非洲在孩童死亡率上已經有很大的進步

  • which changed the composition of the population,

    但是特別在撒哈拉以南非洲

  • and enabled governments to boost the economy.

    教育進步的速度比世界上的其他地方都還要慢

  • Why didn't the same thing happen everywhere in Sub-Saharan Africa?

    雖然避孕藥具的使用自從1990以來,總共已經翻倍了

  • Africa, as a whole, has made considerable progress with childhood mortality.

    在青少年中,依然有大約60%的人避孕藥具的需求未被滿足

  • but especially in Sub-Saharan Africa,

    原因滿複雜的

  • education has improved slower than in other parts of the world.

    也不太可能給出一個標準答案

  • And, while in total, contraceptive use has doubled in the region since 1990,

    非洲是一個有著多元文化和人文的大地方。

  • the unmet need for modern contraception among adolescents is still at about 60%.

    但是有幾個主要因素。

  • The reasons for this are complicated,

    許多撒哈拉以南非洲的國家直到最近數十年才結束被殖民的苦難

  • and it's impossible to give a single answer here.

    且在追求獨立的路上也經歷許多困難

  • Africa is a big place with diverse cultures and people.

    這些年輕的國家通常混雜了許多不同種族的人,沒辦法團結

  • But there are a few main factors.

    有些地方多次地發生內戰、

  • Many Sub-Saharan Nations have suffered under colonization until only a few decades ago,

    軍事衝突,或是動盪的政局

  • and had rough transition periods towards independence.

    這些影響造成基礎建設以及醫療保健很難推廣

  • The young nations were often ethnically heterogeneous and lacked unity.

    因此,非洲的出發點比亞洲來的差。

  • Some areas have been repeatedly racked by civil wars,

    外援以及它的運用,尤其是在冷戰時期

  • military conflicts or suffered under unstable governments,

    也是一個具爭議的議題

  • which made it really hard to expand infrastructure and health care.

    但是這個主題太複雜了,不是用幾句話就能概括的

  • So, Africa had a worse starting point than Asia.

    所以,我們打算在將來做一個影片來專題介紹

  • Foreign aid and how it was applied, especially during the cold war,

    最後一點,因為一些文化風俗

  • is also a contentious issue.

    使得在非洲談論家庭計畫變得困難

  • But this topic is too complex to summarize in a few sentences,

    有批評說,嘗試將生育率降低是對文化以及習俗的冒犯

  • so we'll make a whole new video about it in the future.

    但是閉口不談必不是解決問題的方法

  • And lastly, there are cultural aspects that

    但並不是我們所說的這些都適用於非洲每個國家

  • make talking about family plan in the context of Africa difficult.

    畢竟總共有46個國家那麼多

  • Critics say that trying to bring fertility down is an intrusion into culture and tradition.

    有些國家深陷困境,有些蓬勃發展

  • But not speaking about an issue will not help solve it.

    但他們都與彼此不同,也有著自己獨特的問題

  • Not all of these things apply to every country in the region.

    如果人口成長率不變的話,

  • We're talking about 46 countries after all,

    那麼撒哈拉以南非洲 會在2100年後超過40億人

  • some of them deeply troubled,

    好吧,那可以做什麼事?

  • others already flourishing,

    事實上,非常多!

  • all different and facing unique problems.

    尤其是投資在幫助建立教育系統、

  • If population growth continues at its present rate,

    家庭計畫,以及醫療保健

  • then Sub-Saharan Africa could grow to more than 4 billion people by 2100.

    出人意料地,很多小改變可以造成極大的影響

  • Okay. So, what can be done?

    舉例來說,如果一個女性受到比較好的教育

  • Actually, a lot!

    並且晚兩年才生小孩

  • Especially, investment and aid that helped to build systems for education,

    在這個世代與下個世代之間如此小的差距

  • family planning, and health care.

    就可以讓2100時的人口減少4億人

  • Surprisingly small changes could have an extreme impact.

    同時總數有36億人

  • For example, if women get a better education,

    假如每個非洲女性都可以接受教育以及家庭計畫,

  • and have their first child just two years later in life.

    避孕措施的普及使得大家可以自己決定要不要有小孩

  • This tiny gap between this generation and the next one

    如果每個家庭都可以決定要生幾個小孩,

  • would lead to 400 million fewer people in 2100,

    那麼預計的人口數就可以降低30%,達到28億人

  • with 3.6 billion in total.

    這並不只是理論而已,

  • If education and family planning are made available to every African women,

    已經有例子可證實,我們的樂觀不是沒有理由的

  • universal access to contraception makes having kids a decision.

    在衣索比亞,非洲人口第二多的國家

  • If families get to choose how many kids they want,

    在相對較短的時間內,有了很大的進步

  • birth projections fall by 30%, to 2.8. billion people.

    改善醫療服務使得孩童死亡率大幅下降

  • This isn't just theory.

    從1990的20%降到7%

  • There are already examples that are reason for optimism.

    有30%的年預算投資在教育上,

  • Ethiopia, the African country with the second-biggest population,

    且學校的數量在20年間增加了25倍

  • has made a lot of progress in a relatively short amount of time.

    因此,總結來說

  • Improving health services lead to a drop in child mortality

    前方的路上充滿了各種挑戰,但是他們絕對不是無法解決

  • from 20% to 7% since 1990.

    撒哈拉以南非洲並不需要憐憫或是施捨

  • And up to 30% of the annual budget was invested in education,

    而是需要關注以及恰當的投資

  • and the number of schools increased 25-fold over two decades.

    這是一個有豐富資源、文化,以及具有潛力的地區

  • So, summarizing,

    如果一切順利,

  • there are serious challenges ahead,

    我們將可以預期看到類似於30年前發生於大部分亞洲國家的大逆轉

  • but they are far from unsolvable.

    (呱呱)

  • Sub-Saharan Africa does not need pity or gifts,

  • but attention and fair investment.

  • It's a region rich in resources, culture, and potential.

  • If things go right,

  • we'll see a turn-around similar to the one we've seen across most of Asia

  • in the last 30 years.

  • (quack)

For most of our history, the human population grew slowly,

在我們的大部分歷史中, 人口的增長較為緩慢

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 非洲 人口 生育率 國家 教育 成長率

人口過多與非洲 (Overpopulation & Africa)

  • 139 5
    ally.chang 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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