deep in the heart of enemy territory.

基地位在敵人領土 深處的心臟地帶。

To get past Imperial customs, all packages must follow a strict protocol:

若要通過帝國的海關，所有的包裹 都要遵循一項嚴格的協定：

if a box is marked with an even number on the bottom,

如果箱子的底部標記了偶數數字，

it must be sealed with a red top.

它就必須要用紅色的蓋子來封裝。

The boxes are already being loaded onto the transport

在箱子全被放上運輸交通工具後，

when you receive an urgent message.

你才收到一則緊急訊息。

One of the four boxes was sealed incorrectly,

四個箱子中有一個的封裝不正確，

but they lost track of which one.

但他們已經無法追蹤是哪一個。

All the boxes are still on the conveyor belt.

所有的箱子都還在輸送帶上。

Two are facing down: one marked with a four,

兩個箱子被反過來放： 一個標記了「4」，

and one with a seven.

另一個標記了「7」。

The other two are facing up:

另外兩個箱子是正著放的：

one with a black top,

一個是黑色箱蓋，

another with a red one.

另一個是紅色箱蓋。

You know that any violation of the protocol

你知道只要違反了協定

will get the entire shipment confiscated and put your allies in grave danger.

就會讓整批貨被沒收，

But any boxes you pull off for inspection won't make it onto this delivery run,

還會讓盟友陷入危險。

depriving the rebels of critically needed supplies.

若你把某個箱子拿下來查驗， 它就趕不上這次遞送，

The transport leaves in a few moments, with or without its cargo.

反抗軍就得不到迫切需要的補給品。

Which box or boxes should you grab off the conveyor belt?

運輸交通工具馬上就要離開了， 不論有沒有貨都會開走。

Pause the video now if you want to figure it out for yourself!

你應該從輸送帶上取下 哪一個或哪幾個箱子？

Answer in: 3

如果你想要試著自己解題， 請在這裡暫停！

Answer in: 2

答案即將公佈：3

Answer in: 1

答案即將公佈：2

It may seem like you need to inspect all four boxes

答案即將公佈：1

to see what's on the other side of each.

看起來似乎你會需要 查驗所有四個箱子，

But in fact, only two of them matter.

看看每個箱子的另一面是什麼。

Let's look at the protocol again.

但，事實上，當中 只有兩個才是要緊的。

All it says is that even-numbered boxes must have a red top.

咱們來再看一次協定。

It doesn't say anything about odd-numbered boxes,

它只有說，偶數數字的箱子 需要用紅色箱蓋。

so we can just ignore the box marked with a seven.

它沒有提到奇數數字的 箱子要如何處理，

What about the box with a red top?

所以我們可以忽略 標記為「7」的箱子。

Don't we need to check that the number on the bottom is even?

那麼紅色箱蓋的箱子呢？

As it turns out, we don't.

我們不需要確認一下 它底下的數字是不是偶數嗎？

The protocol says that if a box has an even number,

結果發現，的確不需要。

then it should have a red top.

協定說，如果箱子是偶數數字，

It doesn't say that only boxes with even numbers can have red tops,

它就應該用紅色箱蓋。

or that a box with a red top must have an even number.

它並沒有說只有標記 偶數數字的箱子才能用紅色箱蓋，

The requirement only goes in one direction.

也沒說紅色箱蓋的箱子一定 得是標記偶數數字的箱子。

So we don't need to check the box with the red lid.

要求是單向的。

We do, however, need to check the one with the black lid,

所以我們不用去檢查 紅色箱蓋的箱子。

to make sure it wasn't incorrectly placed on an even-numbered box.

然而，我們確實需要檢查 黑色箱蓋的那個箱子，

If you initially assumed the rules imply a symmetrical match

來確保沒有不小心將黑色箱蓋 蓋在偶數數字的箱子上。

between the number on the box and the type of lid, you're not alone.

如果你一開始就假設 這些規則意味著箱子上的數字

That error is so common, we even have a name for it:

和箱蓋的類型之間有著 對稱的配對，你並不孤單。

affirming the consequent,

那種錯誤非常常見， 它甚至被起了個名字：

or the fallacy of the converse.

肯定後件，

This fallacy wrongly assumes

或是相反謬誤。

that just because a certain condition is necessary for a given result,

這種謬誤是一種錯誤假設，

it must also be sufficient for it.

誤認為當某一個條件 必然會導致某個結果時，

For instance, having an atmosphere is a necessary condition

光是有它就足以導致這個結果。

for being a habitable planet.

比如，「有大氣」是星球適合居住的

But this doesn't mean that it's a sufficient condition –

必要條件。

planets like Venus have atmospheres but lack other criteria for habitability.

但這並不表示有這個條件就充分了。

If that still seems hard to wrap your head around,

像金星也有大氣， 但它缺乏其他居住條件。

let's look at a slightly different problem.

如果你仍然覺得很難懂，

Imagine the boxes contain groceries.

咱們來看一個不太一樣的問題。

You see one marked for shipment to a steakhouse

想像這些箱子中放的是食品雜貨。

and one to a vegetarian restaurant.

你看到一個箱子上寫著 要運送到一間牛排屋，

Then you see two more boxes turned upside down:

另一個箱子則是要 運送到素食餐廳。

one labeled as containing meat,

接著你又看到兩個 反過來放的箱子。

and another as containing onions.

其中一個標示著內有肉品，

Which ones do you need to check?

另一個則是內有洋蔥。

Well, it's easy –

你需要檢查哪一個？

make sure the meat isn't being shipped to the vegetarian restaurant,

嗯，這很容易，

and that the box going there doesn't contain meat.

確保肉品不要被運送到素食餐廳，

The onions can go to either place,

以及運送到素食餐廳的 那個箱子中沒有肉品。

and the box bound for the steakhouse can contain either product.

洋蔥運送到這兩個地方都沒關係，

Why does this scenario seem easier?

要運送到牛排屋的箱子 也可以裝這兩種食品。

Formally, it's the same problem –

為什麼這個情境似乎就容易多了？

two possible conditions for the top of the box,

形式上，它也是同樣的問題——

and two for the bottom.

箱蓋有兩種可能的條件，

But in this case, they're based on familiar real-world needs,

箱底也有兩種。

and we easily understand that while vegetarians only eat vegetables,

但在這個例子中，這些條件 是根據真實世界的需求來設計，

they're not the only ones who do so.

我們很容易了解素食者只吃蔬菜，

In the original problem, the rules seemed more arbitrary,

而吃蔬菜的人不只有素食者。

and when they're abstracted that way,

原始問題的規則似乎隨意許多，

the logical connections become harder to see.

當它們被抽象化成那樣時，

In your case, you've managed to get enough supplies through

會比較難看出當中的邏輯連結。

to enable the resistance to fight another day.

在你的情況中，你得以 讓足量的補給品通關，

And you did it by thinking outside the box –

使得反抗軍能再繼續奮戰。

both sides of it.

而你能辦到，就是因為 你的思考能跳脫箱子——