And there's really two different ways to think about it.

而這其實有兩種不同的思考方式。

One, if you want to be optimistic about the European project, is that the EU could actually be stronger without the UK in it.

其一，如果你想對歐洲項目持樂觀態度的話，那就是歐盟在沒有英國加入的情況下，實際上可能會變得更強大。

To understand how, it helps to look at the history of the EU.

要理解如何理解，看看歐盟的歷史是有幫助的。

And the idea is to take this continent that is the cradle of a wonderful civilization, but has also been the scene of some incredibly destructive wars, some horrific political crimes, and make sure that kind of thing can never happen again.

而這個想法是要把這個大陸，是一個美好文明的搖籃，但也一直是一些令人難以置信的破壞性戰爭的場景，一些可怕的政治罪行，並確保這種事情永遠不會再發生。

And the idea was if they unified the steel and coal industries across national boundaries, they wouldn't be able to fight wars with one another.

而他們的想法是，如果他們統一鋼鐵和煤炭行業跨越國界，他們就不能互相打仗了。

But the UK was never completely on board.

但英國始終沒有完全加入。

They weren't one of the six original countries to join up, they joined a little bit reluctantly, they didn't want to join the single currency project.

他們不是最初加入的六個國家之一，他們加入的時候有點不情願，他們不想加入單一貨幣項目。

And English people have, in a geographic sense, often not felt that they are even quote unquote part of Europe.

而英國人在地理意義上，往往沒有感覺到自己甚至是引用不引用歐洲的一部分。

So, to an extent, they've always been the marginal member, and if anyone is going to leave, it would be them.

所以，在某種程度上，他們一直都是邊緣成員，如果有人要離開，那就是他們。

Once the UK is out, the remaining countries might be able to get some important things done, like crafting a common immigration and foreign policy, which the EU doesn't have, and trying to figure out a way to make the common currency work better.

一旦英國脫歐，剩下的國家或許能完成一些重要的事情，比如制定歐盟沒有的共同移民和外交政策，並試圖想辦法讓共同貨幣更好地發揮作用。

They don't have a common tax policy; they don't have a common welfare state.

他們沒有一個共同的稅收政策，他們沒有一個共同的福利國家。

It may be easier for the countries that remain to build stronger institutions, and you may ultimately see a stronger, even though it's a smaller, Europe.

留下來的國家可能更容易建立更強大的機構，你可能最終會看到一個更強大的，即使是一個較小的歐洲。

That's the optimistic view.

這是樂觀的看法。

Another view could be that we're looking at the beginning of the unraveling of the whole thing.

另一種觀點可能是，我們看到的是整個事件解開的開始。

You start pulling a thread on the sweater, and it's all going to collapse.

你開始在毛衣上拉一根線，它就會全部垮掉。

You see polls from France and even Germany, the countries at the very heart of Europe, showing that it's become unpopular.

你看法國甚至德國這些歐洲最核心的國家的民調都顯示，它已經不受歡迎了。

They don't feel ownership over European politics.

他們對歐洲政治沒有主人翁感。

It's a bunch of guys sitting around in a Belgian city, negotiating deals in a language they don't speak.

這是一群人坐在比利時的城市裡，用他們不會說的語言談判交易。

They don't have a spirit of European patriotism and a deep emotional European identity.

他們沒有歐洲的愛國主義精神，也沒有深厚的歐洲情感認同。

So, the EU has a lot of the attributes of a nation state.

所以，歐盟具有很多民族國家的屬性。

It has a flag, they have a national anthem, but it doesn't have any words.

它有國旗，他們有國歌，但它沒有任何文字。

If you fielded a single EU soccer team, it would win the World Cup every time, but nobody would cheer for it.

如果派出一支歐盟足球隊，每次都能奪得世界盃冠軍，但沒有人會為它歡呼。

So, a lot of how this turns out in the end is going to do with what kind of deal the UK can reach with the EU.

所以，最後結果如何，很大程度上與英國能與歐盟達成什麼樣的協議有關。

If the UK manages to get out but to then still have a really favorable free trade deal with the EU and really sort of prosper, that's going to make it easier for other countries to say well, they want out too every time a decision happens that they don't like.

如果英國設法退出，但仍然與歐盟達成了非常有利的自由貿易協議，並且真的有點繁榮，這將使其他國家更容易說，好吧，他們也想退出，每次發生一個他們不喜歡的決定。

So, there's a strong incentive to make this messy, and to make it really as painful as possible.

所以，有很強的動力讓這個亂七八糟的東西，而且要讓它真的儘可能的痛苦。

If EU leaders manage to exact a high price from the UK in leaving, that means that probably the rest of the union is not going to break up.

如果歐盟領導人設法在離開時向英國索取高價，這意味著歐盟其他國家可能不會解體。