Now, President Eisenhower, when he was a general, he was asked about his attitude toward victory, toward fights, and toward war.

前總統艾森豪，當他還是將軍的時候，被問過對於勝利、衝突與戰爭的想法。

And he basically said that pessimists never win wars.

基本上他回答「悲觀永遠贏不了戰爭」。

Only optimists win wars.

「只有樂觀的人才會贏。」

And optimists, what separates them from the pessimists?

然而，是什麼區分了悲觀者與樂觀者呢？

You see, the optimists see the future, the bright side of the future, the future that has opportunities.

試想，樂觀的人樂見未來，正向的未來，具有機會的未來。

Not the pessimist, who simply says: “Ah," "can't do it," "not possible," "end of story."

而不是像悲觀者，只會說「哎呦」、「我不會啦」、「不可能啦」、「完蛋了」。

"That's it, folks."

「就這樣吧，大家。」

So you have to have not just optimism, but you have to have one eye on the future.

所以你不但需要樂觀，你還有洞察未來的能力。

When I was a kid, when I was a child, I had two role models.

我還小的時候，我有兩位楷模。

First was Einstein.

第一位是愛因斯坦。

I read that he couldn't finish his greatest work.

我得知他沒辦法完成他最偉大的著作。

And as a child, I said to myself, I wanna help finish it.

而當時身為一位孩子，我告訴我自己，我要幫他完成那個作品。

I wanna help finish it, because it's the fundamentals of physics.

我想要幫他做完，因為這是物理中的基礎。

But the other role model I had was, well, I used to watch Flash Gordon on TV every Saturday morning.

而我的另外一位偶像是，我以前每個禮拜六早上都會在電視上看《飛俠哥頓》。

And he kind of like blew my mind away—ray guns, cities in the sky, invisibility shields, monsters from outer space.

然後他讓我大吃一驚：雷射槍、空中之城、隱形盾牌、來自外太空的怪物。

And then I began to realize that the two loves of my life were actually the same thing, that if you want to understand the future, you have to understand science.

這使我了解兩個我所熱愛的根本是一樣的東西，如果你想了解未來，你必須了解科學。

You've gotta pay your dues.

你必須付出努力。

That's where leadership will take you, because you can see the future.

而這是領導會帶你去的地方，因為你看得見未來。

That's what Eisenhower could do.

這就是艾森豪會做的事。

He could see the future of a war, because he understood the mechanics of the war and how the war would progress.

他可以預見戰爭的未來，因為他了解戰爭的道理與戰爭會如何展開。

Seeing the future is the key to success in life?

看見未來是人生成功的關鍵嗎？

I think it's the key to intelligence.

我覺得關鍵在於智慧。

And it's also the key to leadership, as well.

而智慧也是領導的關鍵。

Now, you may say to yourself: "Now, wait a minute."

現在你可能會說：「等一下。」

"I thought IQs were a good predictor of the future."

「我以為智商才是預測未來的好方式。」

Wrong.

錯！

If you take a look at people with high IQs, yes, some of them do win the Nobel Prize.

如果你觀察一下高智商的人們，的確，他們之中的確有人贏得諾貝爾獎。

But a lot of them will end up as marginal people, petty criminals, people that are failures.

但很大部分人最後都變成邊緣人，輕罪犯，是失敗的人們。

And then you wonder, why?

你可能好奇，為什麼？

Why is it that some people with high IQs never get anywhere?

為什麼這些高智商的人們後來都不知去向了呢？

Well, the Air Force had this problem.

空軍有過這樣的問題。

You see, the Air Force devised a test.

他們設計了一個測驗。

What happens if your airplane is shot down over enemy territory in Vietnam, and you're captured by the Vietnamese?

如果你的飛機在敵方越南的領土被擊落，且你被越南人抓住了，你會怎麼做？

Do something!

做些什麼吧？

What are you gonna do?

你會怎麼做呢？

It turns out that the people with high IQs got paralyzed, flummoxed.

結果顯示出高智商的人呆掉，困惑極了。

They didn't know what to do.

他們不知道該怎麼辦。

They were paralyzed.

他們不知所措。

"What?"

「什麼？」

"You're captured behind enemy lines?"

「你被敵方抓住了？」

"What are you going to do?"

「那你要怎麼辦？」

"Give up?"

「放棄嗎？」

The people who came up with the most imaginative, the most creative ideas, they were the ones who did not score so high on the IQ exam, but they were creative.

那些想到最有想像力、最有創意的人並不是在智商測驗中得到高分的人，但他們很有創造力。

They saw the future.

他們看得見未來。

They came up with all sorts of schemes in which to...to escape.

他們想方設法要逃出去。

Now, I like to think of it this way.

我喜歡這樣想啦。

Let's say you've got a bunch of people, kids, and you ask them to rob a bank.

我們假設你有一群人、小孩，然後你叫他們去搶銀行。

That's your job, rob a bank.

這就是你的工作，搶銀行。

How would you do it?

你會怎麼做？

I think the people with high IQs would get all embarrassed, flummoxed.

我覺得高智商的人會覺得羞恥、困惑。

They wouldn't know what to do.

他們不知道該怎麼做。

Even people who want to become policemen of the future, they would get all flummoxed.

甚至是未來要當警察的人都會感到困惑。

But criminals, they are constantly thinking about the future... master criminals now, not the ones who are petty and just steal things off the grocery shelf.

但是犯罪者們一直在思考他們的未來...我指那些重罪者，不是那些輕罪的、偷雜貨店小東西的小偷。

But the master criminals are the ones who constantly simulate the future.

但重罪者才是那些不斷假設未來走向的人。

How do you rob this bank?

你要怎麼搶這個銀行？

How do you nail down the police?

你要怎麼撂倒警察？

How do you get away? Where's your getaway car?

你要怎麼逃走？你接應的車子在哪？

These are the ones who have high intelligence.

這些人才是有高度智慧的人。

These are, quote, the "future leaders."

這類的人才是所謂的「未來的領導者」。