Book a flight between New York and London on Pan Am in 1960, and you'd be paying somewhere around $300, or about $2,600, adjusted for inflation.

在 1960 年，泛美世界航空 (Pan Am) 從紐約飛往倫敦的航班，機票大約要 300 美元，甚至是 2,600 元，根據當時通脹率作調整。

But in 2019, you can catch the same flight for almost a tenth of the price.

不過於 2019 年，你可以以當時的十分之一的價錢購買。

It looks like flying has never been cheaper, but is that the real story?

看起來這是前所未有的便宜，但真的是如你所見的這樣嗎？

And how did we get here?

到底是怎麼發展至今呢的？

The first scheduled commercial flight took place in 1914.

第一班商業航班是在 1914 年啟航。

It had one passenger and was piloted by this guy, Tony Jannus.

機上只有一名乘客，當時也是他負責飛行，他是 Tony Jannus。

The flight was from St. Petersburg to Tampa.

航班是從聖彼德斯堡飛往坦帕。

What would have been a 12-hour train ride became a quick 23-minute trip.

有想過原本需搭 12 小時的火車變成只需 23 分鐘的航程嗎？

The flight proved that there was demand for scheduled aviation as transportation.

這一次的飛行證明了把定期航班作為交通工具是有一定的需求。

Jannus is largely credited with laying the groundwork for the modern aviation business, which has grown into a multibillion-dollar industry.

Jannus 為現代航空業奠定了基礎，而航空業更已經發展成價值數十億美元的行業。

In 2018, there were an estimated 45 million flights worldwide, and the average fare for a domestic flight in the US was $350.

2018 年，估計全球有近 4,500 萬次航班，而美國國內航班機票平均約 350 美元。

Now, $350 is hardly considered cheap, but take a look at this graph.

現在來說，350 元也不算便宜，不過大家先看看這圖表。

Average ticket prices have been steadily decreasing since 1980.

平均票價從 1980 年起逐漸下滑。

In fact, tickets are close to their lowest prices ever.

事實上，票價已經是史上最低了。

But from 1950 to 1980, flying was different.

不過在 1950 年至 1980 年，飛航的模式很不一樣。

Before 1978, fares and routes in the U.S. were closely regulated by the federal government, and many routes had fixed minimum prices.

1978 年前，美國國內的機票定價和航線都由聯邦政府嚴格控管，不少航線都有設定最低票價。

What ended up happening is you got into a highly regulated industry where the federal government set the various routes that you could fly, set how much prices could be, and the airlines were raking in the dollars.

所以就是航空業在嚴格管制下，聯邦政府會設定航線和票價，而當時的航空公司賺了不少錢。

The story across Europe was slightly different, as most airlines were state-controlled and air travel was treated as a public service.

而在歐洲的情況卻有點不一樣，因為大部分的航空公司都是由國家控管，空中旅遊被視為一種公共服務。

But in 1978, everything changed.

但在 1978 年，一切都改變了。

Then President Jimmy Carter signed the Airline Deregulation Act, and the aviation industry was open for business.

後來美國總統占美·卡特簽訂空運管制解除法，航空業從此開放經營。

Free from government regulation, airlines now had one goal: to sell tickets.

脫離政府管制後，航空公司有了一個目標，就是賣票。

What really happened after deregulation was just this massive fight.

放寬管制後真正面對的是這埸大規模的爭鬥。

Airlines were doing everything to get market share and not really looking at profitability.

航空公司極盡所能只為了獲得市場份額，根本不重視獲利力。

The theory was, the more people we can get onto a plane, the more we can dominate the market, the more we're winning.

意思是，飛機可以乘載的人愈多，就愈可以控制市場，就代表愈有機會贏。

But they didn't really look at it as a business where you needed, at the end of the day, to make a profit.

他們並沒有把這視為大眾所需的行業，最終目的就只是賺錢。

And as soon as you had one little economic hiccup, a bit of a recession or a spike in oil prices, that's when airlines really start to fail.

一旦遇到一些經濟上的小問題、經濟衰退或油價飆升，那便是航空公司正要開始倒的時候。

At the same time, aircraft technology was also advancing, which made the planes more efficient.

與此同時，航空科技愈見進步，飛機飛行也變得更有效率。

New wing technology was implemented, such as winglets, which made planes more aerodynamic and reduced flight times.

機翼採用了新的技術，如翼尖小翼可以讓飛機更具空氣動力學的特性和減少飛行時間。

Computer systems began to replace older cockpit technology, making the planes less reliant on pilots.

電腦系統亦逐漸取代舊有的駕駛艙內的科技，飛機也就不再過於依賴機師。

Shortly after planes got computers, so did people, and pricing began to get even more competitive.

當飛機開始使用電腦系統後，而電腦也變得普及後，機票價格變得更具競爭性。

Websites like Expedia and Priceline, launched in the late 90s, began to catalog all of the lowest prices.

像 Expedia 和 Priceline 這類的網站，在 90 年代未起推出，開始會列出各航空公司最便宜的票價。

Budget-airline models were able to thrive because of this, as consumers would regularly click the cheapest prices.

所以廉價航空公司的業務得以蒸蒸日上，是因為消費者都會先點選最便宜的票價。

For many airlines, this competition was unsustainable.

對於許多航空公司來說，這競爭是沒有辦法持續的。

Over the years, a lot of companies folded, merged, or absorbed one another.

這麼多年來，有許多公司倒閉、合併或是被收購。

And today, the four largest U.S. airlines control 80% of the market.

時至今日，美國四大航空公司控制了 80% 的市場。

One of these four, Southwest, has a fleet of 753 planes, each of which has an average of six flights per day.

其中之一的西南航空 (Southwest)，擁有 753 架飛機，每一架平均每天飛行六次。

That's about 4,000 flights a day.

約莫是每天有 4,000 個航班。

And while that may sound like a lot, that frequency is decreasing across America.

聽起來好像航班很多，但其實美國市場有下降的趨勢。

This is because something called load factor is increasing.

這是因為負載系數不斷上升。

One of the key metrics for the airlines is called load factor, and this is basically your occupancy.

負載系數為航空公司的關鍵指標之一，這就是你們的使用率。

How many seats do you have available, and what percentage of those are being sold or occupied by passengers.

飛機上有多少位子和機位售出與佔用的百分比。

Basically, that means aircraft are flying at full capacity, or close to it, more often.

基本上，這代表說飛機要常以滿載或接近滿載飛行。

And this is good for airlines.

對航空公司來說是件好事。

And for flyers, sort of.

對飛行旅客來說，也許吧！

Airlines are able to keep fares low because most of the seats have been sold.

因為大部分的機位都售出，航空公司才有辦法維持低價位。

Which isn't always great for passengers.

不過這對乘客來說不是什麼好消息。

Ever been the last one on the plane and there's no more overhead luggage space?

有試過最後一個才登機，而頭上放行李的位子都沒了？

Or had no room for your legs because the seats are so close together?

又或是因為位子的間隔太近而導致腿沒有太多的空間？

There are tons of budget airlines around the world.

全球有無數間的廉價航空。

Some of the more notable ones are Ryanair, Norwegian, Spirit, and Frontier.

較有名的廉價航空如 Ryanair、Norwegian、Spirit 和 Frontier 等。

These companies usually charge extra for traditionally included amenities, like reserving your seat, while cutting costs wherever they can.

這些航空公司對於傳統的服務會收取額外費用，例如預留座位，同時也會盡所能的降低成本。

This issue of cramming more passengers onto planes is happening all across the world.

全世界的廉價航空公司都會常發生機上塞滿乘客的問題。

You look at a discount carrier like Ryanair, based in Ireland but flies all over Europe.

看看 Ryanair 這家廉價航空，總部在愛爾蘭，但航班遍佈全歐洲。

They're looking at putting 200 people on a Boeing 737.

他們在考慮要讓 200 人擠上波音 737。

This is a plane that some airlines are still flying with 150, 160 passengers.

有些航空公司的波音 737 還只乘載 150 至 16 名旅客。

That's really, really crowded.

這樣的話，飛機上會非常擁擠。

But it maximizes profit.

卻可以把利潤最大化。

And when you fly in an airline like Ryanair, you know exactly what you're getting.

當你搭乘像 Ryanair 這類型的航空公司，你知道你會得到什麼樣的服務。

So, take that $320 flight on Norwegian from New York to London.

如果搭乘 Norwegian 從紐約至倫敦，票價為 320 美元的航班。

Need anything other than one small piece of hand luggage?

除了手提行李還需要帶上些什麼？

The fare jumps to $490.

價格會跳至 490 美元。

Want a refundable ticket and two checked bags?

還想要可以退票及有兩件托運行李？

Suddenly you're at $1,379.

價格馬上跳至 1,379 美元。

That's about $100 more than the inflation-adjusted 1977 price, which came with all those extras included as standard, and more legroom, too.

這比 1977 年因通脹調整後的價格要高出約 100 美元，而當時的價格還包含所有已變成額外收費的服務以及伸腿的空間更寬裕。

And non-budget airlines have seen the potential profit in this budget model.

而非廉價航空公司發現這種經營模式有潛在的利潤。

More and more airlines are beginning to charge hidden fees on top of the ticket price, from checking baggage to just choosing your seat.

有愈來愈多的航空公司開始收取票價以外的隱藏費用，從托運行李到選擇座位。

Find the right deals, though, and flying can be cheaper than ever, but that original price you saw advertised may be misleading, and the experience that you get these days might not be the most pleasant, as manufacturers continue to cut costs.

不過自己找出最合適的價格，也許可以買到最便宜的機票，不過網站顯示的原價可能會有誤導性，而且因為廠商持續縮減成本，因此你可能沒有辦法享受愉快的旅程。

But the world of bargain-budget fares may not last.

不過廉價機票不可能一直維持下去。

Aviation emissions are predicted to possibly triple by 2050, and many countries have begun implementing stricter environmental taxes for flights.

預計至 2050 年，航空排放量會增加兩倍，許多國家已經對航班實施徵收更嚴格的環境稅。

Overall, there's little that the industry can squeeze out of airfare right now.

總體而言，現在票價的調整空間很少。

They're gonna get much more efficient with aircraft, and that's gonna mean less fuel burning.

他們會提高飛機的使用率，代表著會減少燃料燃燒。

But the cost of labor is probably not gonna go down.

不過勞動成本幾乎是不太可能會下降。

You still need good, quality people to fly an airplane and be your flight attendants and be there for your safety.

因為你還是需要優秀的機師和空服員以確保你的安全。