Banks, hedge funds, and other financial specialists may now consider life outside Hong Kong, a place known for its liberal economy and direct access to China.

銀行、對沖基金和其他金融專家可能會考慮離開曾以自由經濟及通向中國直接管道聞名的香港另尋出路。

So where could they go?

那麼他們能去哪裡呢？

Singapore, Tokyo, and Shanghai are possible options.

新加坡、東京和上海是三個可能的選項。

In March, the three financial hubs were just behind Hong Kong in a ranking of the competitiveness of more than 100 financial centers.

今年三月，這三個金融中心的競爭力在世界百大金融中心排名中緊緊跟在香港之後。

So could these cities get more of Hong Kong's business?

所以這些城市有可能搶走香港的生意嗎？

Singapore has a lot of the same qualities that make Hong Kong attractive.

新加坡擁有許多和香港相同的誘人特徵。

The city state has rule of law and an attractive tax system, and just like Hong Kong, it has the ubiquitous use of English.

這個都市國家擁有法治及低廉的稅制，英文也和香港一樣被廣為使用。

It's also a major center for wealth management.

新加坡也是個重要的財富管理中心。

But Hong Kong has one really big advantage.

但香港有一個非常大的優勢。

It's a gateway to China.

它是通向中國的途徑。

Hong Kong is part of China, but it has its own special legal and regulatory system.

香港是中國的一部份，但擁有自己的法律和監管制度。

Singapore of course, has got a lot of cultural affinities with China, and there's a big Chinese diaspora there, but of course it's a separate country...

新加坡當然和中國有些相同的文化，也有大量的中國移民，但是說到底還是單獨分隔的國家。

And I don't think for Chinese companies or for Chinese officials, it's quite the same thing to list a business in Singapore as it is to list it right next door in Hong Kong.

而且我認為對中國企業及官方而言，在新加坡上市公司和在隔壁的香港上市公司還是不太一樣的。

As a result, Singapore's stock market has always been smaller than Hong Kong's.

所以，新加坡的股市規模一直以來都比香港小。

Very roughly, the Singapore market is about a quarter the size of the Hong Kong market in terms of the capitalization.

粗略來說，新加坡市場的資本額大約是香港市場的四分之一。

In September, when the Hong Kong Exchange made a surprise takeover proposal to the London Stock Exchange, the LSE's board rejected the order and said it actually preferred Shanghai as a direct channel to access China.

當香港交易所在今年九月意外地向倫敦證券交易所提出併購時，倫敦證交所的董事會拒絕此提議並表明更希望以上海作為通往中國的直接途徑。

Shanghai already serves as mainland China's most advanced financial hub, including bond and stock markets capitalized at trillions of dollars.

上海已經是中國大陸最先進的金融中心，包含了資本額好幾兆美金的債券及股票市場。

Its exchange is already larger than Hong Kong's, and it is forecast to grow much further in the coming decades, but being in China can also be seen as a disadvantage.

它的交易量已經超越香港，且在接下來幾十年間預期會繼續大量成長，但是處於中國境內也可能被視為缺點。

China still operates capital control so you can't take money in and out of the country very easily, given that there's quite a complicated and opaque legal system, and so often companies feel they're operating in an unfair system.

由於中國依然實施資本管制且其司法系統複雜不透明，金錢不太能輕易地進出國家，也讓許多公司時常認為自己在一個不公平的體制中運作。

For years, the government has been liberalizing the financial sector to attract foreign institutions and their money.

好幾年來，中國政府都在放寬金融產業以吸引跟多外國機構及資金。

We will encourage and support bold and creative steps by Shanghai to advance investment and trade liberalization and facilitation.

鼓勵和支持上海在推進、投資和貿易自由化，便利化方面，大膽、創新探索。

But the bureaucracy so far has hindered Shanghai's ambition as a truly global financial center.

但目前為止官僚體系還是阻擋了上海真正成為全球金融中心的野心。

Tokyo is the capital of the world's third largest economy.

東京是世界第三大經濟體的首都。

It is a place where companies enjoy the rule of law and which boasts deep markets.

這是個企業享有法治並且坐擁深度市場的地方。

The city has more Fortune 500 companies than anywhere else.

這座城市擁有最多躋身《財富》世界500強排行的公司。

- And in late August... -Aramco might list in Tokyo.

- 而在八月底... -沙烏地阿拉伯國家石油公司可能會在東京上市。

The city made big news with a Saudi Arabian oil giant.

這座城市發出和沙烏地阿拉伯石油大亨相關的重大消息。

The Japanese authorities might be comfortable with a slightly lower level of disclosure about things like reserves for example, which might make it easier for Aramco, which is a very politically sensitive company to list in Tokyo.

日本當局對於像是有關準備金等較低的披露水平較為寬鬆，這可能讓非常政治敏感的沙烏地阿拉伯國家石油公司較容易在東京上市。

If Tokyo won a listing of Aramco, that would be a really big feather in the cap of that stock market.

若是東京成功讓沙烏地阿拉伯國家石油公司上市，這將令該股市十分值得驕傲。

But there are factors holding Tokyo back.

但東京也有幾個缺點。

Taxes are higher than in Hong Kong or Singapore.

稅收比香港和新加坡高。

Tokyo also has stricter VISA requirements.

東京的簽證要求也更為嚴謹。

It's also a less cosmopolitan place.

它的國際化程度也較低。

Language is a big barrier.

語言是個相當大的障礙。

It can be difficult for companies to find employees who have a good command of English.

企業很難找到英語能力佳的員工。

The country was rated 32nd in latest HSBC list of top expat destinations, way behind even mainland China.

日本在匯豐銀行最佳移居地榜單中排第 32 名，甚至落後中國大陸很多。

Many financiers say that Hong Kong is still the only city in Asia to offer the combination of the rule of law, an open capital account, and a convenient base for jumping into the Chinese market.

許多金融家還是認為香港是唯一融合法治、公開資本項目以及中國市場跳板的城市。

Yet the long months of protests are already taking a toll.

然而，好幾個月的抗爭早已持續造成破壞。

Chinese E-commerce giant Alibaba recently put a blockbuster listing there on hold for instance.

舉例來說，中國電子商務巨擘阿里巴巴最近暫緩了一樁大型上市案。

Hong Kong is scheduled to keep its special status as a semi-autonomous region until 2047.

香港預計會保持半自治區的特殊地位直到 2047 年。

But as Beijing's grip on the territory increases, so does uncertainty about what might happen in the near future.

但隨著北京對該地區的控制日漸增強，香港未來近期發展的不定性也越來越高。