Name: 香港為何在抗議和貿易戰中面臨經濟衰退？ (Why Hong Kong Is Facing a Recession Amid Protests and Trade Wars | WSJ)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T08:27:29.000Z
Duration: 3 min 35 s

Hong Kong is facing its first recession since the global financial crisis in 2008.

香港正在面臨自 2008 年以來的第一次經濟衰退。

Including its own ongoing anti-government protests and the trade stalemate between Washington and Beijing.

包括其正在進行中的反政府遊行以及華盛頓和北京間的貿易僵局。

In February, the government predicted Hong Kong's economy would grow up to 3% this year.

2 月時，政府預估香港今年的經濟成長可以高達百分之 3。

Six months later, that forecast was slashed to 0 to 1%.

六個月後這個預測數字被砍至百分之 0 到 1。

This time, the economic downturn has been fast.

Compared with past downturns that we have handled, such as those caused by SARS, and past economic storms, I'm afraid this is more serious.

相對以往我們處理過因 SARS 等造成的衰退，以及金融風暴，恐怕這次的情況更為嚴峻。

Since June, the city's tourism industry has suffered from the increasingly violent and disruptive pro-democracy protests.

從 6 月開始，這座城市的觀光產業因不斷增加地暴力事件及混亂的泛民主派遊行而遭受打擊。

In August, normally a strong month for tourism, arrivals in Hong Kong dropped nearly 40% from a year ago.

今年 8 月，通常是旅遊的旺季的月份，訪問香港的人數比起去年減少了百分之 40。

It's the worst decline since May, 2003 when Hong Kong was grappling with the deadly SARS virus.

這是從 2003 年 5 月，香港與致命的 SARS 病毒搏鬥之後所遇過最糟的衰退。

Occupancy rates of hotels in some districts fell around half while room rates decreased 40 to 70%.

儘管飯店房價降低了百分之 40 到 70，某些區域的飯店住房率仍掉了將近一半。

Mainland Chinese tourists make up over 70% of total tourist arrivals in Hong Kong.

中國內地的旅客佔香港總入境旅遊人數的百分之 70。

But when protests started in June, that number has dropped.

但是當 6 月抗議活動開始後，這個數字就開始下滑。

And there's also increase in anti-China sentiment in the city.

而且港內的反中國情緒也在升溫。

16 years ago, once the all-clear came after the SARS outbreak, visitor arrivals and business confidence swiftly recovered.

16 年前，當 SARS 爆發的警報一解除，旅客人數和商業信心都迅速地恢復了。

But, as the anti-Beijing mood grows in Hong Kong, so does opposition to the protests in mainland China.

然而，當反北京聲浪持續在香港成長，中國內地的反港勢力也在增加。

The protests and the drop in tourists have disrupted the city's retail sales.

抗議活動和旅客的減少衝擊到香港的零售業。

In August, sales dropped 23% from a year ago.

8 月，銷售額同比去年下降了百分之 23。

Luxury items were among the biggest victims.

Sales of jewelry, watches, and other valuable gifts fell nearly 50%, marking a record low.

珠寶、名錶和其他貴重禮品的銷售額掉了將近五成，寫下歷史新低。

The protests have been disruptive for life especially on the weekends.

遊行對生活有非常破壞性的影響，尤其是在週末。

In early October, there was a time when entire department stores were closed and major train stations were also shut down.

在 10 月初的時候曾經有一段時間所有百貨公司都關門，以及一些主要的地鐵站被關閉。

And also, if you go to popular shopping districts like Causeway Bay, it's actually a popular destination for protests now.

還有，如果你去一些熱門的購物區像是銅鑼灣，你會發現那裡現在是一個遊行的熱點。

And then there's the trade dispute between China and the U.S..

然後還有來自中國與美國的貿易爭端。

Though the two sides emerged from the latest round of trade talks with a truce in place, there's still a lot to be worked out.

雖然雙方在最新一輪的貿易談判達成停戰協議，但是仍然有很多事情需要解決。

The effects of the stalemate have been felt in Hong Kong which relies heavily on reexporting Chinese goods.

香港非常高度依賴將中國的商品再出口，因此他們對貿易僵局非常有感。

Total exports are expected to shrink nearly 4% this year.

今年的總出口量預計會減少百分之 4。

So far, the finance sector has weathered the protests.

目前，金融業已經順利度過了抗議活動。

However, when the government invoked colonial-era emergency powers, it put to the test Hong Kong's rule of law.

然而，當政府援引殖民時期的緊急權力，他們使香港的法治受到考驗。

The authorities say they will only use the emergency provision to ban people from wearing masks at public gatherings.

當局表示，他們只會利用緊急條款來禁止人民在公共集會時戴面罩。

But it also allows the chief executive to enact drastic regulations such as censorship, arrests, and foreign exchange controls.

不過這也讓特首得以頒布激進的法規，像是審查制度、逮捕令和外匯控管。

The government said it had no such plans.

政府表示他們並沒有這樣的計畫。

Declining reexports and the government's struggle to restore order to the city have erased any economic momentum from the start of 2019.

再出口的下跌和政府重建社會秩序的抗爭，消除了所有自 2019 年初的經濟動能。

Experts believe numbers for the third quarter will confirm Hong Kong is in technical recession.

專家相信第三季財報的數字會證實香港進入技術性衰退。

Despite the major decline in Hong Kong's economic indicators, Hong Kong's financial buffers still remain strong.

儘管香港各項經濟指數大幅下降，它的經濟緩衝能力仍然是很強勁的。

That can come under pressure if Hong Kong's status as a global financial and business center comes under fire.

然而，若香港作為全球財務和商業中心的地位遭受衝擊，這點就有可能會面臨壓力。

And that could be really difficult and challenging for its longterm growth prospects.

而這對其長期成長的前景來說是非常艱難而且充滿挑戰的。

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香港為何在抗議和貿易戰中面臨經濟衰退？ (Why Hong Kong Is Facing a Recession Amid Protests and Trade Wars | WSJ)

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