Name: 敘利亞戰爭再起？！土耳其攻打敘利亞的真正理由？ (What does Turkey's military action in northern Syria mean?)
Uploaded: 2019-10-23T21:01:30.000Z
Duration: 4 min 4 s

關係子句

People think because mostly Syria has dropped out of the front pages that the war is ending.

因爲敘利亞已經從頭版消失了一陣子，大部分人都認為他們的戰爭已經結束了。

We're looking at, basically, what a lot of people are warning could be another humanitarian disaster in a war that still isn't really over.

我們看到的是，這個情況很可能在這場未完的戰爭中演變成另一個人權災難。

That's partly because it fulfills a campaign promise that he made in 2016 and he's making again this year.

有一部分的原因是它正在實踐 2016 年和現在再次對選民做出的保證。

And it makes Turkey, which is a NATO ally and a really strategically important partner in the region, it makes Turkey happy.

這也使得北大西洋公約組織的同盟國兼戰略上的重要夥伴土耳其非常開心。

The problem is, is the US is leaving behind Kurdish troops on the ground, who are an American military partner, but Turkey sees them as a terrorist group.

問題是，美國不再與之並肩作戰的庫德組織，雖然仍被美國視為軍事夥伴，但對土耳其來說他們就是恐怖組織。

Now that the US have left the area, that's basically a green light for Turkey to attack them and potentially open a new front in Syria's war.

現在美國離開了，這對土耳其來說就是一個可以開始攻打他們的綠色信號燈，而這可能會成為敘利亞戰爭中新的一個前線。

Many of the mid-rank and high-rank commanders in the SDF have links to the PKK, which is a guerrilla Kurdish movement that's been fighting the Turkish state since the 1980s.

許多敘利亞民主力量 (SDF) 中的中階或高階的軍官都與庫德工人黨 (PKK) 有關，PKK 是自 1980 年代起就一直在和土耳其對抗的庫德族游擊組織。

And the PKK is recognised by the UK, by the US as an outlawed terrorist group.

庫德工人黨 (PKK) 也被英國和美國宣告為違法的恐怖組織。

So what Turkey says is that the SDF is the same thing as the PKK, just with a different name.

因此土耳其的說法就是敘利亞民主力量 (SDF) 與庫德工人黨 (PKK) 在本質上是一樣的，只是名字不同而已。

With this operation, Turkey is saying it's going to secure a 32-kilometer border zone.

在這場軍事行動之後，土耳其表示自己將能保障 32 公里的邊境區是安全的。

What Turkey wants to do is move up to 2 millions Syrians into this border zone.

土耳其想做的是，把兩百萬敘利亞難民移到這個邊境地帶中。

But that's not where those people are originally from.

但那並不是人們真正來自的地方。

Most of the refugees in Turkey are Arab Syrians, who came from places like Aleppo, and a little bit from places like Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor.

多數待在土耳其的難民都是阿拉伯裔敘利亞人，大部分來自如阿勒坡的這些地方，少數來自拉卡和代爾祖爾等地區。

What a lot of international observers are saying, is that moving the Syrian Sunni Arab population into this area – which is predominantly Kurdish – amounts to basically demographic engineering.

許多國際中的觀察者都說，若阿拉伯裔遜尼派的敘利亞人移入這個庫德人的區域，那基本上就等於在操縱人口分佈。

And it will completely change the structure of what that part of the country looks like.

這會完全改變那個區域的構成。

Donald Trump has basically handed over the custody of these 90,000 people to Turkey, but it's very unclear how on earth a transfer like that would work.

川普基本上已經把這九萬人的監護權交給了土耳其，但我真的看不出來這樣的交接如何是可行的。

So there's a really real threat that these 90,000 people with links to ISIS could go free, could release each other from the camps, from the prisons, and you're looking at what could be, you know, a resurgence of ISIS across Syria.

所以這是一個真實的威脅，這九萬名與 ISIS 有關連的人可能會重獲自由，也可能會幫助彼此逃出難民營、逃出監獄，接著你會看的可能就是， ISIS 在敘利亞全境的復出。

If it escalates to a level where there is large-scale fighting between Turkish troops and between SDF, and ISIS takes advantage of the chaos, what you're looking at could potentially be a really ugly situation for civilians who get caught up in that.

如果這擴大成為敘利亞民主力量 (SDF) 與土耳其軍隊的衝突，ISIS 又從這場混亂中漁翁得利，那麼你就能預想到被捲入爭鬥的平民們所面臨的窘迫情況。