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  • This protester calls himselfBruce''

  • We've hidden his face and obscured his voice to protect his identity

  • He's one of the millions of Hong Kongers taking to the streets

  • Many people here are wearing face masks

  • People are hiding their identities

  • They fear that the government will press charges

  • What started as a protest against an extradition bill...

  • ...has become the most serious challenge...

  • ...to the Communist Party's authority...

  • ...since the Tiananmen Square protest three decades ago

  • As the demonstrations enter a third month...

  • ...neither the government nor the protesters is willing to back down

  • Police fire tear gas, rubber bullets...

  • ...and use their police baton to hit the protesters

  • But it's not enough to deter the demonstrators

  • So what happens now?

  • This is a real nightmare for the Communist government in Beijing

  • They can either crush Hong Kong...

  • ...or they can tolerate being defied...

  • ...in a way that undermines everything...

  • ...about their whole structure of government

  • They have no good choices

  • Hong Kong is one of the most important financial centres in the world

  • And it has a unique status

  • It's a city in China but it's not entirely Chinese

  • It has its own currency...

  • ...its own passport

  • ...its own legal system

  • There's even a boundary between Hong Kong and the rest of China...

  • ...and you need a permit to cross it

  • This is all down to its history

  • In 1842 Hong Kong was ceded by the Chinese to the British...

  • ...after the first Opium War

  • But in 1997 Britain gave it back to China

  • Hong Kong people are to run Hong Kong

  • With one important condition...

  • ...for 50 years Hong Kong was to be governed...

  • ...under what is known asone country, two systems

  • The chief executive who runs Hong Kong...

  • ...would be appointed by a pro-Chinese committee

  • But the city was guaranteed a high degree of autonomy...

  • ...with its own government, legal system...

  • ...and economic independence until 2047

  • Over the past decade those rights have been eroded

  • Fuller democracy, promised as part of the handover agreement...

  • ...has yet to be granted by China

  • Yellow ribbon means come back, come back democracy

  • Emily Lau was a Hong Kong politician for 25 years

  • Today she still campaigns for democracy

  • Things have deteriorated fast...

  • ...particularly since President Xi Jinping came to power

  • So people are very concerned

  • We want freedoms, we want personal safety...

  • ...we want the rule of law

  • China's grip has got ever tighter

  • In 2012 the government tried to install...

  • ...a patriotic pro-Chinese education system

  • Then five Hong Kong booksellers...

  • ...who sold material banned in mainland China disappeared

  • In 2016 pro-democracy opposition leaders...

  • ...were thrown out of Hong Kong's parliament...

  • ...for insulting China when swearing their oaths

  • And then in February this year...

  • ...the government introduced a bill...

  • ...which would have allowed extradition to the mainland

  • Very few people in Hong Kong imagine there's going to be...

  • ...full-on, Western-style democracy

  • But they are very angry about the way that...

  • ...what they believe they were promised...

  • ...was something much more accountable where...

  • ...you'd have something close to universal suffrage

  • The basic social contract...

  • ...between the people of Hong Kong and their government is breaking down

  • All this is fuelling the protesters' anger

  • The invisible hand from China...

  • ...are getting more visible

  • They are putting more controls on Hong Kong's autonomy and democracy

  • Hong Kong is not China

  • People will say to you, “We know that 2047 is coming one day...

  • ...but we don't want it to happen now

  • As the protests get larger and more violent...

  • ...the chance of China intervening increases

  • Beijing has made thinly veiled threats to send in its military forces...

  • ...the People's Liberation Army

  • Those who play with fire will perish by it

  • At the end of the day, they will eventually be punished

  • A few weeks ago nobody seriously thought...

  • ...we could see another Tiananmen Square in Hong Kong

  • Now you can't rule it out

  • In 1989 a student demonstration in Beijing ended in massacre

  • Hundreds, maybe thousands, were shot dead

  • For the Chinese government...

  • ...the Hong Kong demonstrators are defying the authority...

  • ...of a Communist leadership that cannot tolerate defiance

  • For President Xi Jinping...

  • ...his kind of north and south, his east and west, is the absolute authority...

  • ...and total control of the Chinese Communist Party

  • And anything that threatens that must be crushed

  • They are afraid that it could be very infectious...

  • ...and they don't want to see such marches...

  • ...in the other parts of mainland China

  • Another fear is some protesters' demand for full independence

  • But military intervention would be a very risky strategy for Beijing

  • Hong Kong for all its woes...

  • ...is still a very rich world financial centre

  • To roll troops into that kind of financial centre...

  • ...would be an economic catastrophe

  • In 1993 Hong Kong's GDP accounted for...

  • ...more than a quarter of mainland China's

  • Today China's remarkable rise means that Hong Kong's...

  • ...economic output makes up less than 3% of the mainland's

  • But Hong Kong remains important for China

  • Multinationals use it as a launch pad to the mainland...

  • ...and it gives Chinese companies access to the rest of the world

  • So we are very special

  • We are a window for China to look to the outside world...

  • ...as an international city with all our connections

  • It's very valuable to China

  • So how the turmoil is resolved matters to more...

  • ...than just the people of Hong Kong

  • The government there said the People's Liberation Army may be deployed

  • But if that's the case, the game is over

  • If China uses lethal force...

  • ...then you would see an economic crash

  • There's 85,000 American expatriates in Hong Kong

  • You would see them fleeing for the airport

  • This all comes at a time when China and America...

  • ...are waging a trade and technology war

  • Bloodshed on Hong Kong's streets...

  • ...would make relations deteriorate even further

  • Beijing is now blaming outsiders for the trouble

  • We've seen remarkably explicit...

  • ...state-media commentaries telling the people of China...

  • ...that these protests are not just radical and violent...

  • ...but are also orchestrated by foreign forces

  • The Chinese government resolutely opposes...

  • ...any foreign forces attempts to intervene in Hong Kong affairs

  • For the Chinese Communist leadership...

  • ...what's happening in Hong Kong is evidence...

  • ...that as China rises as one of the world's most powerful countries...

  • ...that the West is using every means possible to divide and to frustrate China

  • For China the situation has become much more than a dispute over a law

  • It's become an existential threat

  • Bruce and the other protesters are holding their breath

  • I still worry what happens next...

  • ...because the situation could deteriorate very rapidly

  • China's Communist rulers must choose between two mortal dangers...

  • ...the collapse of economic stability and prosperity...

  • ...or the acceptance that protests can limit the Party's absolute power

This protester calls himselfBruce''

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B1 中級 英國腔

香港抗議活動:對中國來說,什麼是危險的?| 經濟學家》雜誌 (Hong Kong protests: what's at stake for China? | The Economist)

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    王語萱 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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