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  • On July 25th, 1978 in Oldham, England, a baby girl named Louise was born.

    1978 年 7 月 25 日,在英國的奧爾德姆有一名為 Lousie 的女娃兒出生。

  • Unlike any baby before her, Louise was conceived in a Petri dish by a remarkable new procedure known as in vitro fertilization or IVF.

    她與在此之前的其他嬰兒不一樣的是,Louise 是透過一種驚為天人的創新方法,稱人工受孕或是簡稱 IVF,於培養皿中受孕。

  • Since then millions of so-called "test-tube babies" have been born.

    隨後,數百萬所謂的「試管嬰兒」就誕生了。

  • Today 1 in 60 American births is thanks to IVF and other fertility treatments, which have spawned a booming new industry in many different countries.

    時至今日在美國, 60 個嬰兒中有一個是透過人工受孕或其他生育治療方式出生,更在許多不同國家帶起這塊新興產業。

  • But, are fertility businesses making promises they can't keep?

    可是,生育服務的企業所給予的承諾是否無法兌現?

  • Sacha Nauta can help answer that.

    Sacha Nauta 可以回答這個問題。

  • She's the public policy editor at The Economist.

    她是《經濟學人》公共政策的編輯。

  • So there's a lot going on in the fertility industry.

    生育行業還在持續發展中。

  • Firstly you're seeing a lot of growth in people seeking out IVF treatment.

    首先,我們可以看到有愈來愈多人尋求人工受孕的治療。

  • IVF provides a valuable option for people who, for whatever reason, are unable to conceive.

    人工受孕為不論什麼原因而無法受孕的人提供一個重要的選擇。

  • But, there's another emerging market.

    不過,有另一個新興市場嶄露頭角。

  • There's quite a lot of exciting stuff going on around so-called fertility "preservation."

    有許多振奮人心的方式,其中一個是我們所講的「保存」。

  • That's freezing of egg or sperm cells for IVF in the future, often years later.

    意味著可以先冷凍卵子或精子提供若干年後進行人工受孕時使用。

  • Egg freezing is a relatively new procedure and was officially considered experimental in America until 2012.

    凍卵相對來說是屬於較新的手術,這項手術於 2012 年前在美國都還處於實驗階段。

  • It's actually aimed at sort of millennials--people in their 20s--who aren't thinking about having babies at all, but who might want to preserve the idea of having kids.

    這其實是針對兩千年左右出生、在 20 幾歲時還沒有想要生小孩但日後又可能打算生小孩的人。

  • It opens up the idea that as a person at sort of peak fertility, in say your mid-20s, you can take your cells, put them on ice, and in theory take them out whenever suits you when you're ready to have a baby.

    這個概念是,比如說在 20 多歲時,是一個人生育能力最高的時期,你就可以先取出細胞隨後冷凍起來,準備好生小孩便隨時可以取出來。

  • This is what egg-freezing businesses appear to promise: a chance to put parenthood on ice, which appeals to young people who are increasingly interested in having children later, for a variety of reasons.

    冷凍卵子的企業提供可以不用現在就生小孩的機會,這吸引愈來愈多基於各種原因進而打算於日後才生小孩的年輕人。

  • What clinics sell you tends to be time, or women's empowerment, or taking control of your destiny.

    這些診所向你所推銷的賣點是要你把握時間、女性的權力或對自己命運的掌控權。

  • All of these things that you know chime with what younger women right now would like to have.

    這一切都是年輕女性現在就想要擁有的。

  • And women are increasingly buying in.

    愈來愈多女性接受這做法。

  • The number of egg-freezing procedures has grown rapidly over the past decade.

    在過去這十年間,進行凍卵手術的個案數量迅速增長。

  • The process isn't cheap.

    這手術費用不便宜。

  • Egg freezing can cost $15,000-$20,000 per cycle, which is a single batch of eggs.

    凍卵的費用大約是取一次卵子要 15,000 至 20,000 美元左右。

  • It often requires multiple cycles to increase chances of success.

    通常都要好抽取好幾次以增加成功率。

  • Egg freezing and similar services are part of the burgeoning women's-health industry dubbed "femtech," and are attracting plenty of interest from investors.

    凍卵和其他相關的女性健康服務都是這個稱之為 femtech 的蓬勃產業的一部分,並且吸引了眾多投資者的興趣。

  • So we've seen a lot of particularly private-equity money go into the sector as well as venture capital into the more early stage stuff.

    看到有許多私募股權的資金投入這個產業,更有投機資本在早期就已投入市場。

  • Investment in fertility firms grew from less than $200 million in 2009 to $624 million in 2018.

    生育企業的投資從 2009 年的少於 2 億增加至 2018 年的 6 億 2 千 4 百萬。

  • Investors are attracted to the growth prospects, high-profit margins, and recession-proof demand.

    投資者受到市場前景、高利潤和抗衰退需求等因素所吸引。

  • Investors, businesses, and prospective parents all stand to benefit.

    投資者、公司和準父母都能從中獲益。

  • But the reliability of these services might be oversold.

    可是這些服務的可靠程度也許有點被過分吹噓了。

  • IVF has a success rate of about 25-30% per cycle.

    進行一次人工受孕的成功率大約是 25-30%。

  • But that doesn't tell you much.

    但這也不足以說服。

  • It depends on who you are. It very much depends on how old you are.

    這視基因而定,更重要的是年齡。

  • On freezing I'm a bit more cautious.

    對此我還是保有疑慮。

  • They're, it's really early days.

    這個東西,要下定論還早得很。

  • Birth rates from frozen eggs should be taken with a grain of salt.

    利用冷凍卵子而懷孕的出生率還不能盡信。

  • Most women who have had their eggs frozen have not yet retrieved them.

    因為有大多已經凍卵的女性還沒把卵子放回去體內。

  • So the sample sizes are small.

    因此,目前的樣本數很小。

  • It's just too soon to draw reliable conclusions.

    要下一個讓人能信賴的定論還言之尚早。

  • Still, clinics might misrepresent the data to encourage freezing.

    而且,診所也有可能為了鼓勵凍卵而提出虛假數據。

  • An egg-freezing clinic might tell you "our success rate is "X" and you might think "oh that sounds good."

    凍卵的診所會告訴你「我們的成功率高達 X」,你也許覺得「聽起來還不錯。」

  • And what they may not tell you is that is based on donor eggs of 25-year-olds.

    不過可能他們沒有告訴你的是那個成功的案例是來自 25 歲女孩的卵子。

  • Whereas actually you're a 38-year-old, which is the average age of most people who go to egg clinics and therefore your chances are much lower.

    而實際上你也許已經 38 歲了,通常都是這個年齡左右的人會到凍卵診所,其實這時候的成功率已經大幅下降。

  • So you are not that number that they're showing you.

    所以他們和你說的成功率並不等於你。

  • I think the most important caveat is that there is no such thing as a guarantee to have a baby.

    我認為有一個很重要的提醒是,沒有任何方法能掛保證可以讓你受孕。

  • And one of my concerns in the industry right now is that the caution isn't being sold enough.

    而我對於這個產業有其中一個顧慮是給予顧客的警示不足。

  • It may well help you one day, but there's also a very good chance that it won't.

    也許總有一天這方法能幫助你,但也有很大的機會是沒有辦法。

  • There is also a lack of sufficient regulation of fertility services, especially in America.

    再者,美國對於協助生育服務的法律管制仍然不足。

  • Freezing clinics in particularyou know a young, new industry.

    尤其是冷凍卵子和精子的診所,你們也知道,是新興行業。

  • I think there's a lot of problems there.

    我相信還有很多的問題存在。

  • There have been a few quite well-published scandals around loss of these cells, loss of embryos.

    關於這些細胞遺失、胚胎遺失的醜聞,雖然數量不多卻街知巷聞。

  • I think about who they could have been and what they would have been like and yeah, those were our future children.

    我在想他們以後可能會成為誰、會變得怎麼樣,那些細胞都有可能成為我們將來的小孩。

  • And what we're seeing right now is when these kind of dramatic things do happen, it's clear that it's a totally under-regulated sector where there are no clear standards for how you look after these cells.

    就我們現在所看到,當如此戲劇性的事情發生時,很明顯可以看到對於這個領域的監管是不足的,根本沒有明確的標準來控管這些細胞。

  • So what's needed from the fertility sector?

    那麼我們需要生育服務這項產業提供我們什麼?

  • It's honestyit is just more honesty about the limits of the science, honesty about the costs, and yes more investment in R&D, which is I think a great thing.

    誠實以對 — 坦承科學的局限性、坦承花費,在研發的過程中能有更多的投資是件好事。

  • There is still so much more to explore and so much room for improvement around these treatments and clearly a growing market.

    因為這個領域還有很多探索和改善的空間,而且顯然這市場一直在成長。

On July 25th, 1978 in Oldham, England, a baby girl named Louise was born.

1978 年 7 月 25 日,在英國的奧爾德姆有一名為 Lousie 的女娃兒出生。

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