Unlike any baby before her, Louise was conceived in a Petri dish by a remarkable new procedure known as in vitro fertilization or IVF.

她與在此之前的其他嬰兒不一樣的是，Louise 是透過一種驚為天人的創新方法，稱人工受孕或是簡稱 IVF，於培養皿中受孕。

Since then millions of so-called "test-tube babies" have been born.

隨後，數百萬所謂的「試管嬰兒」就誕生了。

Today 1 in 60 American births is thanks to IVF and other fertility treatments, which have spawned a booming new industry in many different countries.

時至今日在美國， 60 個嬰兒中有一個是透過人工受孕或其他生育治療方式出生，更在許多不同國家帶起這塊新興產業。

But, are fertility businesses making promises they can't keep?

可是，生育服務的企業所給予的承諾是否無法兌現？

Sacha Nauta can help answer that.

Sacha Nauta 可以回答這個問題。

She's the public policy editor at The Economist.

她是《經濟學人》公共政策的編輯。

So there's a lot going on in the fertility industry.

生育行業還在持續發展中。

Firstly you're seeing a lot of growth in people seeking out IVF treatment.

首先，我們可以看到有愈來愈多人尋求人工受孕的治療。

IVF provides a valuable option for people who, for whatever reason, are unable to conceive.

人工受孕為不論什麼原因而無法受孕的人提供一個重要的選擇。

But, there's another emerging market.

不過，有另一個新興市場嶄露頭角。

There's quite a lot of exciting stuff going on around so-called fertility "preservation."

有許多振奮人心的方式，其中一個是我們所講的「保存」。

That's freezing of egg or sperm cells for IVF in the future, often years later.

意味著可以先冷凍卵子或精子提供若干年後進行人工受孕時使用。

Egg freezing is a relatively new procedure and was officially considered experimental in America until 2012.

凍卵相對來說是屬於較新的手術，這項手術於 2012 年前在美國都還處於實驗階段。

It's actually aimed at sort of millennials--people in their 20s--who aren't thinking about having babies at all, but who might want to preserve the idea of having kids.

這其實是針對兩千年左右出生、在 20 幾歲時還沒有想要生小孩但日後又可能打算生小孩的人。

It opens up the idea that as a person at sort of peak fertility, in say your mid-20s, you can take your cells, put them on ice, and in theory take them out whenever suits you when you're ready to have a baby.

這個概念是，比如說在 20 多歲時，是一個人生育能力最高的時期，你就可以先取出細胞隨後冷凍起來，準備好生小孩便隨時可以取出來。

This is what egg-freezing businesses appear to promise: a chance to put parenthood on ice, which appeals to young people who are increasingly interested in having children later, for a variety of reasons.

冷凍卵子的企業提供可以不用現在就生小孩的機會，這吸引愈來愈多基於各種原因進而打算於日後才生小孩的年輕人。

What clinics sell you tends to be time, or women's empowerment, or taking control of your destiny.

這些診所向你所推銷的賣點是要你把握時間、女性的權力或對自己命運的掌控權。

All of these things that you know chime with what younger women right now would like to have.

這一切都是年輕女性現在就想要擁有的。

And women are increasingly buying in.

愈來愈多女性接受這做法。

The number of egg-freezing procedures has grown rapidly over the past decade.

在過去這十年間，進行凍卵手術的個案數量迅速增長。

The process isn't cheap.

這手術費用不便宜。

Egg freezing can cost $15,000-$20,000 per cycle, which is a single batch of eggs.

凍卵的費用大約是取一次卵子要 15,000 至 20,000 美元左右。

It often requires multiple cycles to increase chances of success.

通常都要好抽取好幾次以增加成功率。

Egg freezing and similar services are part of the burgeoning women's-health industry dubbed "femtech," and are attracting plenty of interest from investors.

凍卵和其他相關的女性健康服務都是這個稱之為 femtech 的蓬勃產業的一部分，並且吸引了眾多投資者的興趣。

So we've seen a lot of particularly private-equity money go into the sector as well as venture capital into the more early stage stuff.

看到有許多私募股權的資金投入這個產業，更有投機資本在早期就已投入市場。

Investment in fertility firms grew from less than $200 million in 2009 to $624 million in 2018.

生育企業的投資從 2009 年的少於 2 億增加至 2018 年的 6 億 2 千 4 百萬。

Investors are attracted to the growth prospects, high-profit margins, and recession-proof demand.

投資者受到市場前景、高利潤和抗衰退需求等因素所吸引。

Investors, businesses, and prospective parents all stand to benefit.

投資者、公司和準父母都能從中獲益。

But the reliability of these services might be oversold.

可是這些服務的可靠程度也許有點被過分吹噓了。

IVF has a success rate of about 25-30% per cycle.

進行一次人工受孕的成功率大約是 25-30%。

But that doesn't tell you much.

但這也不足以說服。

It depends on who you are. It very much depends on how old you are.

這視基因而定，更重要的是年齡。

On freezing I'm a bit more cautious.

對此我還是保有疑慮。

They're, it's really early days.

這個東西，要下定論還早得很。

Birth rates from frozen eggs should be taken with a grain of salt.

利用冷凍卵子而懷孕的出生率還不能盡信。

Most women who have had their eggs frozen have not yet retrieved them.

因為有大多已經凍卵的女性還沒把卵子放回去體內。

So the sample sizes are small.

因此，目前的樣本數很小。

It's just too soon to draw reliable conclusions.

要下一個讓人能信賴的定論還言之尚早。

Still, clinics might misrepresent the data to encourage freezing.

而且，診所也有可能為了鼓勵凍卵而提出虛假數據。

An egg-freezing clinic might tell you "our success rate is "X" and you might think "oh that sounds good."

凍卵的診所會告訴你「我們的成功率高達 X」，你也許覺得「聽起來還不錯。」

And what they may not tell you is that is based on donor eggs of 25-year-olds.

不過可能他們沒有告訴你的是那個成功的案例是來自 25 歲女孩的卵子。

Whereas actually you're a 38-year-old, which is the average age of most people who go to egg clinics and therefore your chances are much lower.

而實際上你也許已經 38 歲了，通常都是這個年齡左右的人會到凍卵診所，其實這時候的成功率已經大幅下降。

So you are not that number that they're showing you.

所以他們和你說的成功率並不等於你。

I think the most important caveat is that there is no such thing as a guarantee to have a baby.

我認為有一個很重要的提醒是，沒有任何方法能掛保證可以讓你受孕。

And one of my concerns in the industry right now is that the caution isn't being sold enough.

而我對於這個產業有其中一個顧慮是給予顧客的警示不足。

It may well help you one day, but there's also a very good chance that it won't.

也許總有一天這方法能幫助你，但也有很大的機會是沒有辦法。

There is also a lack of sufficient regulation of fertility services, especially in America.

再者，美國對於協助生育服務的法律管制仍然不足。

Freezing clinics in particular — you know a young, new industry.

尤其是冷凍卵子和精子的診所，你們也知道，是新興行業。

I think there's a lot of problems there.

我相信還有很多的問題存在。

There have been a few quite well-published scandals around loss of these cells, loss of embryos.

關於這些細胞遺失、胚胎遺失的醜聞，雖然數量不多卻街知巷聞。

I think about who they could have been and what they would have been like and yeah, those were our future children.

我在想他們以後可能會成為誰、會變得怎麼樣，那些細胞都有可能成為我們將來的小孩。

And what we're seeing right now is when these kind of dramatic things do happen, it's clear that it's a totally under-regulated sector where there are no clear standards for how you look after these cells.

就我們現在所看到，當如此戲劇性的事情發生時，很明顯可以看到對於這個領域的監管是不足的，根本沒有明確的標準來控管這些細胞。

So what's needed from the fertility sector?

那麼我們需要生育服務這項產業提供我們什麼？

It's honesty — it is just more honesty about the limits of the science, honesty about the costs, and yes more investment in R&D, which is I think a great thing.

誠實以對 — 坦承科學的局限性、坦承花費，在研發的過程中能有更多的投資是件好事。

There is still so much more to explore and so much room for improvement around these treatments and clearly a growing market.

因為這個領域還有很多探索和改善的空間，而且顯然這市場一直在成長。