It was the moment that Democrats have been waiting for.

這是一個民主黨期待已久的時刻。

Nancy Pelosi, the leader of the House of Representatives, announcing that President Donald Trump will be impeached.

Nancy Pelosi，眾議院的議長，宣布唐納・川普總統將會受到彈劾。

Or at least that there will be hearings into a possible impeachment of the president.

或者，至少會有一場彈劾總統的調查聽證會。

Democrats have been pushing for this almost ever since Trump came to power after winning the 2016 presidential election.

自從 2016 年川普贏得總統大選上任以來，民主黨就一直推動這個。

The long investigation into Trump's alleged collusion with Russia - some had hoped that that would lead to an impeachment.

川普遭指控與俄羅斯勾結的冗長偵查案件 - 有些人原本希望這會導向彈劾。

But the Mueller inquiry failed to deliver on that goal.

但是穆勒調查案沒有達成這項目標。

However, this new controversy about President Trump's dealings with the Ukrainian president, President Zelenskiy.

然而，這項關於川普總統與烏克蘭總統，澤倫斯基，往來的爭議。

And about whether he was essentially asking for help in the next presidential election and corrupting both the American political process and American foreign policy, that has proved the final trigger.

以及關於他是否真的尋求在下次總統大選的協助，進而損害美國政治進程及美國外交政策，這明顯是最後的導火線。

Nancy Pelosi has, perhaps against her better judgement, acceded to the enormous pressure on her side to open impeachment proceedings.

儘管這可能違背 Nancy Pelosi 的意願，她在周圍巨大的壓力下同意展開彈劾程序。

And now we're in a whole new situation.

現在我們進入一個全新的狀態。

This week, the president has admitted to asking the president of Ukraine to take actions which would benefit him politically.

本週，總統已承認要求烏克蘭總統採取行動，以使他在政治上受益。

However, mixed in with the Democrats' jubilation that at last they are closing in on impeachment is a lurking fear, which is pretty close to the surface, that actually this could even help Donald Trump in his bid for re-election in 2020.

然而，伴隨著民主黨因終於要達到彈劾的欣喜而來的是一個隱憂。幾乎是顯而易見的，這件事實際上有可能幫助唐納・川普在 2020 年競選連任。

And that's because of the extreme polarisation of the American electorate.

而這是因為美國選民是非常兩極化的。

There is no way that the Republican Party, or many elements of it, are going to get behind this impeachment.

共和黨或是其許多相關人士是不可能支持這場彈劾的。

So the Democrats can already tell that even if the impeachment process goes to the House of Representatives, it's highly likely to be thrown out by the Senate, who will refuse to convict the president.

所以民主黨已經可以預見，即便彈劾程序進入眾議院，它還是極有可能會被拒絕將總統定罪的參議院丟出門外。

And that's because the Senate has a Republican majority.

而這是因為共和黨在參議院中佔多數。

But their fears are even beyond that.

不過他們的恐懼遠勝於此。

Their concern is that Mr. Trump will use this impeachment to feed his supporters' narrative that he is being unfairly persecuted, and that that could be used to drive support for the presidency, drive his supporters towards the polls.

他們擔心的是川普會利用這個彈劾，加強其支持者們認為他正在遭受不公正地迫害的說法，而這可能會提升連任的支持度、驅使他的支持者們去投票。

You might make an analogy with the way in which the hearings about Brett Kavanaugh, the Supreme Court justice, were used to motivate Trump supporters just before the midterm elections.

你可以類比一下，在期中選舉之前最高法院大法官 Brett Kavanaugh 的聽證會是如何激勵了川普的支持者。

So rather than removing President Trump as his opponents dearly hope this impeachment process will do, it could, ironically, if things go wrong for them - actually help to keep him in office.

所以儘管川普總統的對手們殷切地期盼透過這個彈劾程序將他除掉，若事情發展不如他們預期，這有可能，非常諷刺地，幫助川普留在白宮。

Underwhelming.

難以置信。

If you're looking for a circumstance where the president of the United States was threatening the Ukraine with cutting off aid unless they investigate his political opponent, you would be very disappointed.

如果你們想打聽美國總統威脅烏克蘭，若他們不調查他的政敵，就要中斷對烏克蘭援助的情況，你們會非常失望。

That does not exist.

那並不存在。

Now, as far as the Democrats are concerned, it's very clear what happened.

對民主黨而言，現在的狀況很清楚。

However, the Republicans, it's already clear, are not going to accept that argument.

然而，已經非常明顯，共和黨將不會接受這項爭議。

They will say it's perfectly fine to ask a foreign president to investigate corruption.

他們會說請一位外國總統協助調查貪污是完全沒有問題的。

That's longstanding American policy.

這是美國長久以來的策略。

Why should Trump even apologize for that?

為什麼川普要為此道歉？

One of the elements that we discussed is the United States helps Ukraine.

我們討論的其中一個重點就是美國要幫助烏克蘭。

But I think that other countries should help Ukraine.

但我認為其他國家應該幫助烏克蘭。

By dramatic coincidence, the very day after impeachment proceedings were announced, President Trump had to meet the other president at the centre of this storm, President Zelenskiy of Ukraine, who was in town in New York for the UN General Assembly meeting.

在戲劇性的巧合下，就在彈劾訴訟被被宣布的隔天，川普總統必須和旋渦中心的另一位總統，烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基見面。他那時在紐約參加聯合國大會。

And I suspect that President Trump will be fairly happy with how their televised encounter went, because President Zelenskiy played down the idea that he'd been put under undue pressure to investigate Joe Biden's son.

而我認為這場被電視轉播的碰面將使川普總統感到相當開心，因為澤倫斯基總統淡化了關於他被不當施壓去調查 Joe Biden 兒子的想法。

Now, given who he was sitting next to, it's perhaps not surprising that President Zelenskiy felt the need not to stir up the political controversy in the US.

考量到他旁邊坐著的人，澤倫斯基總統覺得不能再煽動美國政治爭端的舉動或許並不令人驚訝。

But it will help the Republicans, and it will help President Trump, because you can already see both sides, the Democrats and the Republicans, digging in into entrenched positions around this impeachment.

但這會幫助共和黨，也會幫助川普總統，因為我們已經可以看到雙方，民主黨和共和黨，正在圍繞著彈劾展開攻防戰。

Any hope that people might have had that perhaps this new revelation would lead to some formation of a consensus in America around what President Trump did and around the nature of the Trump presidency.

如果人們期望川普的所做所為及其執政的本性，會因為這個被揭發的真相而把美國導向某種形式的共識。

Well, they're going to be very disappointed, because what you're seeing now is both sides in the political divide digging in.

那他們將大失所望，因為我們現在看到的是雙方持續擴大政治上的分歧。

And if anything, the political polarisation in the United States is due to get much worse.

若非要說的話，美國政治的兩極化注定會更加嚴重。