The first 200 to use the link in the description get 20% off the annual subscription.

前200名使用描述中的鏈接可獲得年度訂閱的8折優惠。

2018 was a rollercoaster year for Apple.

2018年對於蘋果來說是雲霄飛車般的一年。

In August, its stock hit two-hundred and seven dollars, making it the first trillion dollar

8月，其股價創下貳零壹柒美元，成為首個萬億美元的

company in history.

公司在歷史上。

Then, in a dramatic few months, it lost $450 billion as Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet

然後，在戲劇性的幾個月裡，它損失了4500億美元，因為微軟、亞馬遜和Alphabet

passed it by.

通過它。

And for the first time in fifteen years, the company announced it would make less money

而十五年來，公司首次宣佈將少賺點錢。

than expected.

比預期的要好。

The problem?

問題是什麼？

Fewer people buying iPhones.

買iPhone的人越來越少。

The reasons are many: China's slowing economy, sticker shock, market saturation.

原因是多方面的。中國經濟放緩，貼紙衝擊，市場飽和。

But there's also another big factor: Apple has a new competitor.

但還有一個重要因素。蘋果有了一個新的競爭對手。

Not Samsung.

不是三星。

Not Google.

不是谷歌。

Not Huawei.

不是華為。

…Apple!

...蘋果！

The iPhone is increasingly competing with itself.

iPhone與自己的競爭越來越激烈。

One, because we're all holding on to them longer.

一，因為我們都在堅持較長時間。

But also because it doesn't cost what you think it does.

但也因為它的成本並不是你想的那樣。

As the price of an iPhone goes up, something new is happening to its value, and it's

隨著iPhone價格的上漲，它的價值也發生了新的變化，這就是

shaking up Apple's entire business model.

動搖了蘋果的整個商業模式。

To understand what's really going on, we need to calculate the actual, hidden price

為了瞭解真實情況，我們需要計算實際的、隱藏的價格。

of the iPhone.

的iPhone。

Generally speaking, there are two ways you can get rich selling things to people:

一般來說，向人推銷東西有兩種方式可以致富。

One, you can play the numbers game - Sell a gazillion small things for a few cents profit

一、你可以玩數字遊戲--賣出無數小東西，獲得幾毛錢的利潤。

each.

每個人。

Think: Gas stations, grocery stores, and, on a good day, Amazon.

想想看：加油站、雜貨店，還有，在好的一天，亞馬遜。

Sure, you'll probably lose money at first, but sell a few more and now you have the power

當然，一開始你可能會賠錢，但多賣幾個，現在你就有能力了。

of scale.

的規模。

Lower costs, higher margins.

降低成本，提高利潤。

Look at you!

看看你！

Or, you can sell a few really expensive things.

或者，你可以賣掉一些很貴的東西。

Ever wondered why your town has like three mattress stores for every one person?

你有沒有想過為什麼你的城市每一個人就有三家床墊店？

They're always empty and yet somehow still keep the lights on.

它們總是空空如也，卻不知為何還能保持燈火通明。

Well, that's because a few feet of foam doesn't cost thousands, or even hundreds,

嗯，那是因為幾英尺的保麗龍不需要幾千，甚至幾百。

of dollars.

的美元。

50, 60, 90 percent of a mattress is pure, king-sized profit.

一張床墊的50%、60%、90%是純利潤，特大號的利潤。

It only takes a few sales a month to stay in business.

一個月只要賣出幾單，就能維持生意。

And, therefore, disruption.

也是以，中斷。

But a few companies, the really, really successful ones, manage to do both.

但有少數公司，真正的，真正成功的公司，能做到這兩點。

If you can make hundreds of dollars on each item, sell it thousands of times an hour,

如果每件商品能賺幾百元，一小時就能賣出上千次。

and convince those same people to buy again in 12 months, AND make us want to line up

並說服這些人在12個月內再次購買，並使我們想排隊。

with a smile on our face for the privilege of doing it, well, now you have a $265 billion

臉上帶著微笑的特權，好吧，現在你有一個2650億美元的

a year business.

一年的業務。

The iPhone is, arguably, the most successful subscription service in history.

可以說，iPhone是歷史上最成功的訂閱服務。

You can bet Apple will announce a new model, or three, every September, like clockwork,

你可以打賭，蘋果每年9月都會像鐘錶一樣宣佈一款新機型，或者三款。

just as surely as you know they'll name it something weird.

就像你知道他們會給它起個奇怪的名字一樣。

The problem is, technology is getting really good.

問題是，技術真的越來越好了。

So good that a lot of people are thinking “Why do I need a new one?”

這麼好的東西，很多人都在想 "我為什麼要買新的？"

Some of us care about Portrait Mode and dual optical image stabilization, but, for most

我們中的一些人關心人像模式和雙光學圖像防抖，但是，對於大多數人來說，我們都會關心人像模式和雙光學圖像防抖。

people, checking Twitter and using WeChat is the same on the Phone XS as the X, and

人，在Phone XS上查看微博和使用微信和X一樣，而且。

8, and 7.

8，和7。

You're invited to the blue bubble club regardless.

不管怎麼樣，你都會被邀請到藍泡泡俱樂部。

According to analysts, the average person waited three years to upgrade their smartphone

根據分析師的數據，平均每個人都要等三年才能升級智能手機。

in twenty eighteen.

在二十八歲的時候。

This year: four.

今年：四個。

Of course, phones are a little bit weird in this respect because so are humans.

當然，手機在這方面有點奇怪，因為人也是如此。

The iPhone isn't just a tool, it's a status symbol.

iPhone不僅僅是一個工具，更是一種身份的象徵。

According to researchers at the University of Chicago, the best predictors of wealth

根據芝加哥大學的研究人員，財富的最佳預測因素

in 1992 were: owning an automatic dishwasher, a fireplace, and oooh, a garage door opener.

在1992年的時候，擁有一臺自動洗碗機，一個壁爐，還有哦，一個車庫門開啟器。

Hi-tech!

高科技！

Today, it's owning a passport, an iPhone, and iPad, which have a 70% chance of correctly

如今，擁有一本護照、一部iPhone和iPad，這三者的正確率達到70%。

guessing whether you have a high income.

猜測你是否有高收入。

Owning the newest model signals you have a grand of disposable income to spend every

擁有最新的車型，標誌著你有一千多萬的可支配收入，可以花在每一個項目上。

year.

年。

Add some AirPods and you won't even hear the sound of the money leaving your bank account.

加上一些AirPods，你甚至不會聽到錢離開銀行賬戶的聲音。

But that only works if this year's iPhone looks different from last, and Apple only

但這隻有在今年的iPhone外觀與去年不同的情況下才行得通，蘋果只有

really changes its design every other year.

真的是每隔一年就換一次設計。

So, here we are.

所以，我們在這裡。

People are losing their appetite for frequent upgrades, but Apple certainly hasn't lost

人們正在失去頻繁升級的胃口，但蘋果當然沒有失去

its appetite for money.

其對金錢的胃口。

Which means, of course, higher prices!

這就意味著，當然，價格會更高!

Selling half as many phones isn't such a problem if they're all twice as expensive.

如果手機的價格都是原來的兩倍，那麼賣一半的手機也不是這樣的問題。

The cheaper iPhone has slowly crept from $649, to 699, to 749, today.

更加便宜的iPhone從649美元，到699美元，再到今天的749美元，慢慢爬上。

The more expensive XS now starts at nine ninety-nine and goes all the way up to $1,449.

現在更貴的XS的起價是九十九元，一直到1449元。

Of course, that's only if you're lucky enough to live in the U.S.

當然，這只是在你有幸生活在美國的情況下。

And yet, revenue is still down.

然而，收入仍在下降。

Something's missing.

少了點什麼

To make sense of this, we need to answer the question: How expensive is the iPhone, really?

要想搞清楚這個問題，我們需要回答這個問題。iPhone到底有多貴？

There's plenty of back-and-forth on whether the iPhone is, quote, worth it, but what isn't

有很多的反反覆覆的iPhone是否, 報價, 值得, 但什麼是不

really debated is that, in general, it's higher-priced than most other smartphones

真正的爭論是，在一般情況下，它的價格比大多數其他智能手機更高

from most other brands.

從大多數其他品牌。

Being selective about which price segments it sells to is pretty much written in Apple's

有選擇地銷售給哪個價位段的產品，這在蘋果公司的產品中已經寫得差不多了。

DNA.

DNA：

There's no $300 MacBook not because it's impossible but because that's just not what

沒有300美元的MacBook，不是因為它不可能，而是因為這並不是

it's about.

它是關於。

And with prices going up even higher, it would seem that's never been more true.

而隨著物價的進一步上漲，這似乎是再正確不過的了。

But sticker price isn't the best way to measure actual cost.

但貼牌價並不是衡量實際成本的最好方法。

In fact, it's pretty misleading.

其實，這是很誤導人的。

Phones aren't consumable.

手機不是消耗品。

Unless you pull a Black Mirror, they're still worth something in a year or two.

除非你拉個黑鏡，否則一兩年後他們還是很值錢的。

The price of something like a house accounts for how much it's expected to gain or lose

房子這種東西的價格佔了它的預期收益或損失的多少。

in value.

價值。

Usually, the structure itself depreciates - styles change and wood rots, but the land

通常情況下，結構本身會貶值--風格會改變，木頭會腐爛，但土地卻會貶值

underneath it appreciates.

下它欣賞。

Which, side note, is why tiny houses aren't investments.

這也從側面說明了為什麼小房子不是投資。

The land they sit on is often leased, not owned, and therefore, it only loses value.

他們所坐的土地往往是租賃的，而不是擁有的，是以，它只會失去價值。

Basically, you've just bought a house-shaped RV!

基本上，你剛剛買了一輛房子形狀的房車!

Anyway, unless your phone was signed by the ghost of Steve Jobs himself, it's more like

總之，除非你的手機是喬布斯的鬼魂親自簽名的，否則更像是

a car - its value goes down.

一輛汽車--它的價值會下降。

And fast.

而且速度很快。

But not all phones are the same.

但並不是所有的手機都一樣。

On average, iPhones lose 45% of their value in the first 12 months.

平均而言，iPhone在前12個月內損失了45%的價值。

Samsung phones, 62%.

三星手機，62%。

and Google, 81.

和谷歌，81。

That may sound a little unfair - Apple only makes premium devices, while Samsung's average

這聽起來可能有點不公平--蘋果只生產高端設備，而三星的普通

might be skewed by a few low-end outliers.

可能會被一些低端的異常值所扭曲。

So, let's look at specific models.

那麼，我們來看看具體的車型。

A year later, the Samsung S8 lost 58% of its value.

一年後，三星S8損失了58%的價值。

The Google Pixel XL, 82, and the OnePlus One 94%.

谷歌Pixel XL，82%，OnePlus One 94%。

Meanwhile, the iPhone 8 still lost only 45.

同時，iPhone8仍然只損失了45。

That's a difference of hundreds of dollars.

那是幾百元的差別。

And that's before the record-setting iPhone X.

而這還是在創紀錄的iPhone X之前。

In September 2018, only a week before the XS was set to be announced, the X was still

2018年9月，就在XS即將公佈的前一週，X還在。

worth $679.

價值679美元。

It lost only 32% of its value.

它只損失了32%的價值。

Taking this into account, we can calculate a rough Total Cost of Ownership.

考慮到這一點，我們可以計算出一個大致的總擁有成本。

A thousand dollars upfront, minus 679 for selling it a year later, gives us a real cost

先付一千塊錢，減去一年後賣掉的679塊錢，我們的實際成本是多少？

of $320.

320美元。

That's $26 a month to always have the latest and greatest.

每月26元，可以永遠擁有最新最好的東西。

Now, to be fair, sticker price does matter.

現在，為了公平起見，貼紙價格確實很重要。

If next year's iPhone cost $20,000, and sells 12 months later for $19,900, it would

如果明年的iPhone成本為20000美元，12個月後以19900美元的價格出售，那麼它將

be a bit disingenuous to call it a $100 phone.

稱之為100元的手機是有點虛偽的。

But, of course, resale value is still very important.

不過，當然，轉售價值還是非常重要的。

And here's why: Because used iPhones are now worth more, more people are selling them.

這就是原因。因為二手iPhone現在更值錢了，更多的人在出售它們。

Higher supply.

供應量較大。

Meanwhile, more people want the new design but don't necessarily want to spend a whole

同時，更多的人想要新的設計，但不一定要花整個

month's rent.

月的租金。

Higher demand.

需求量較大。

The result: a huge, thriving, secondary market.

結果是：一個巨大的、繁榮的二級市場。

Amazon and eBay are flooded with iPhone X's.

亞馬遜和eBay都充斥著iPhone X。

Which means the new phone has to compete with its still-pretty-good last generation.

這意味著新手機要和它還算不錯的上一代產品競爭。

In other words, Apple is, increasingly, competing with itself.

換句話說，蘋果公司正在，越來越多地與自己競爭。

And the better today's iPhone, the harder it'll be to compete against, used, next

而如今的iPhone越好，就越難與之競爭，二手的，下一個。

year.

年。

Now, if you're an investor, this all sounds pretty bad.

現在，如果你是一個投資者，這一切聽起來很糟糕。

Like, sound-the-alarms bad.

就像，聲音警報壞。

Remember, the iPhone alone accounts for 60% its revenue.

請記住，僅iPhone就佔其收入的60%。

Any other company would fight this tooth and nail.

任何其他公司都會與之抗衡。

So, what's Apple doing?

那麼，蘋果在做什麼呢？

Not only are they not fighting it, they're actually embracing it, making the iPhone last

他們不僅沒有反抗，實際上還在擁抱它，讓iPhone持續發展。

even longer.

只是時間長一點。

Instead of buying a whole new phone because you can't get 3 hours on a charge, they've

與其因為一次充電不能達到3個小時而買一部全新的手機，不如說他們已經。

made it easier than ever to just replace the battery.

使得更換電池比以往任何時候都要容易。

And while Android phones often receive only two years of software updates, iOS 12 runs

而安卓手機往往只收到兩年的軟件更新，而iOS 12運行的是

on all these devices, going all the way back to the 2013 iPhone 5s and the first iPad Air.

在所有這些設備上，一直到2013年的iPhone 5s和第一款iPad Air。

Even better, it actually speeds up your phone, it's no longer a tradeoff of slow-as-molasses

更好的是，它實際上加快了你的手機速度，它不再是慢得像糖漿一樣的權衡。

for new features.

為新功能。

Or, let's be real, pressing “Update” so it'll stop bothering you.

或者，讓我們現實一點，按 "更新"，這樣它就不會再打擾你了。

All of this is awesome for you and I, but isn't it a terrible business idea?

這些對你我來說都是很厲害的，但這是不是一個很糟糕的商業想法？

Not necessarily.

不一定。

Unless you buy from Apple.com, second-hand phones don't directly put any money in its

除非你從蘋果網購買，否則二手手機不會直接投入任何資金，其

pockets, but Apple has other ways of making a profit.

兜，但蘋果還有其他盈利方式。

New or used, you still buy apps, You still subscribe to Apple Music, Apple Video, iCloud,

不管是新的還是二手的，你還是會購買應用，你還是會訂閱蘋果音樂、蘋果視頻、iCloud。

and so on.

諸如此類。

The iPhone is a gateway to things like the iPad, Apple Watch, and AirPods.

iPhone是iPad、Apple Watch和AirPods等東西的入口。

Even if you buy none of these things, you're still useful to Apple.

即使你不買這些東西，你對蘋果也是有用的。

Google, for example, pays an estimated $9 billion a year just to be your default search

例如，谷歌，估計每年支付90億美元，只是為了成為你的默認搜索。

engine.

發動機。

Nine BILLION.

九個億。

That's the GDP of Haiti for one switch to be flipped.

這就是海地的GDP，只要打開一個開關就可以了。

User base means control and control, ultimately, means money.

用戶群意味著控制力，而控制力，最終意味著金錢。

In other words, things like services can make up for lost sales.

換句話說，服務這種東西可以彌補銷售的損失。

It's sort-of the in-app purchase model applied to the iPhone as a whole.

這算是應用內購買模式應用到整個iPhone上。

In the long term, Apple needs to move its focus away from the iPhone and towards new

從長遠來看，蘋果需要將重心從iPhone轉移到新。

platforms entirely.

平臺完全。

Augmented reality glasses are the future.

增強現實眼鏡是未來的發展趨勢。

As we saw in 2018, this transition won't be easy.

正如我們在2018年看到的那樣，這種轉型並不容易。

But it's the best, and really only path forward.

但這是最好的，也是真正唯一的前進之路。

Because, the truth is, what's happening now is normal.

因為，事實上，現在發生的一切都很正常。

Everything before was an anomaly.

之前的一切都很反常。

A very profitable one.

一個很賺錢的。

An easy one for companies to get used to.

對於企業來說，很容易習慣。

But, still, an anomaly.

但是，還是很不正常。

From 2007 until fairly recently, the stars were perfectly aligned - technology was moving

從2007年到最近，星辰完美地排列在一起--技術在不斷髮展。

incredibly quickly but still always left enough to be desired for next year.

不可思議的快，但明年還是總能留下足夠的期待。

The smartphone was in its growth period.

智能手機正處於成長期。

But the average people buying a new phone every year or two just isn't sustainable.

但一般人每隔一兩年就買一部新手機，是不可持續的。

Not economically.

在經濟上沒有。

And not environmentally.

而不是環境。

Phones should last years and years, go through two or even three owners, and then, gracefully,

手機應該能用好幾年，經歷兩個甚至三個主人，然後，優雅地。

be recycled.

被回收。

The future is one where a few of us buy the latest phone, take good care of it, and then

未來是我們幾個人買了最新的手機，好好保養，然後

give it back to Apple, or sell it second-hand.

把它還給蘋果，或者賣給二手。

The problem is, selling your phone is, kinda the worst.

問題是，賣手機是，挺慘的。

How do you know when to sell?

如何知道什麼時候賣？

And for how much?

多少錢？

So it ends up just sitting in a drawer somewhere.

所以最後只是放在某個抽屜裡。

Dave, over on Here's the Bad Version has an idea for a solution: An app.

戴夫，在 "壞版本 "上有一個解決方案的想法。一個應用程序。

You'd scan your phone when you buy it, tell it how often you wanna upgrade, and then it

你在買手機的時候就會掃描手機，告訴它你想升級的頻率，然後它就會

sends you a notification when it's the best time to sell.

當賣出的最佳時機到來時，會向您發出通知。

I'm 100% serious when I say I think this could be a multi-million dollar startup, someone

我100%的認真，當我說我認為這可能是一個數百萬美元的創業公司，有人。

just needs to program it.

只是需要編程。

You could design the app to make predictions about how the value of your phone might change

你可以設計這個應用來預測你的手機價值可能會發生的變化

in the future, for example, with the machine learning course on Brilliant, which teaches

在未來，例如，在Brilliant上的機器學習課程，教授

you, step by step, intuitively, with its computer science and math courses.

你，一步步地，直觀地，其計算機科學和數學課程。

Their Computer Science Algorithms course will teach you the concepts behind how you might

他們的計算機科學算法課程將教給你如何在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可能的情況下，在你可

design the app to scan the iPhone's barcode and then generate an eBay listing when the

設計的應用，掃描iPhone的條碼，然後生成eBay列表，當。

user is ready.

用戶已經準備好了。

In my programming classes, I noticed that I learned a lot faster when I was actually

在我的編程課上，我注意到，當我實際學習時，我學得更快。

making something versus when I was just studying arbitrarily.

做出一些東西與我只是任意學習的時候。

Plus, it's just more fun to make something.

另外，做東西也比較有趣。

Brilliant thinks the same way - instead of “Here's this new concept, now just store

輝煌也是這樣想的--而不是 "這裡有這個新的概念，現在只需要存

it in the back of your head”, its Daily Problems give you a real, interesting problem

它在你的腦海裡"，它的每日問題給你一個真正的，有趣的問題。

to solve using your new skills.

用你的新技能來解決。

Use the link in the description to sign up for free and get started today.

使用描述中的鏈接免費註冊，今天就開始。

The first 200 people to do so will also get 20% off the annual premium subscription so

前200人還將獲得年度高級訂閱的8折優惠，所以。

you can view all the Daily Problems and take all their problem-solving courses.

你可以查看所有的日常問題，並參加他們所有的問題解決課程。

And after you sign up, don't forget to go watch Dave's video.

註冊後，別忘了去看戴夫的視頻。