Two simple letters that marked one of the biggest changes in human history.

兩個簡單的字母卻寫下了人類歷史上最巨大的改變。

In 1969, programmers were trying to type "login".

1969 年，程式工程師嘗試要打出「login (登錄)」。

Charlie typed the L.

Charlie 輸入 L。

He typed the O.

輸入 O。

He typed the G.

接著輸入 G。

You get to G—whacko— the system crashed.

一打到 G，蹦！系統就癱瘓了。

So the very first message on the Internet ever was lo, as in lo and behold.

所以網路上的第一則訊息是 lo，lo and behold 裡的「lo」。 (lo and behold的意思是「想不到吧」)

50 years later and half the world is now online.

五十年後，世界上一半的人口都在上網。

But that half is primarily from the rich world, which means that the other half quite obviously will have to come from the poor world.

不過，這一半的人口主要落在富裕的國家，這很明顯地代表，另一半人口是來自貧窮的國家。

How will the second half of humanity coming online change the internet?

若是後半段的人也開始上網，會對網際網路造成什麼改變呢？

And how will the Internet change them?

網際網路又會如何改變他們呢？

The really interesting place to look at is India.

印度這個地區非常有趣。

India's Internet penetration was pretty low until very recently with the launch of a new mobile network called Reliance Jio with incredibly cheap phones and incredibly cheap data prices.

印度過去的網路普及率相當低，直到最近成立一家 Reliance Jio 的全新行動網路公司，他提供極為低價的手機及網路費率。

Reliance Jio launched aggressively in 2016 offering subsidized handsets and free data to hook people in.

Reliance Jio 在 2016 年強勢推動行動裝置，為了吸引群眾而提供手機補助和免費行動數據。

India went from being a relatively expensive place to consume data to being the cheapest in the world.

印度一下子從網路使用費相對高的地方，成了全球網路費率最便宜的地方。

Prices crashed by 94%.

價格降低了 94%。

Newer users in the developing world are browsing the Internet in much the same way as people in the developed world.

開發中國家的新用戶遨遊網路的套路，和已開發國家的使用者一樣。

When people get online, the first thing they do is they chat with their friends.

人們上網做的第一件事，就是和朋友聊天。

They watch sports.

觀看體育賽事。

They watch movies.

看電影。

They watch music videos.

看音樂影片。

They watch an extremely large amount of pornography.

還看許多的色情影片。

But this is where the similarities end.

但他們的相似處到此結束。

The Internet was built on the assumptions that many users speak English, are literate and media-savvy.

當初網路的建立，是假設多數使用者會說英文、識字、很瞭解媒體的。

None of those things remain true for the second half of the Internet.

這些假設都不適用於後半段的網路使用者。

You have a whole bunch of languages that don't enjoy very good support in terms of web browsers or input.

後半段用戶所使用的語言，甚至連瀏覽器及輸入法都不怎麽支援。

And you have a whole bunch of people who can't actually read or write.

還有一大堆用戶不會閱讀或寫字。

There's practically no usage of desktop computers, laptop computers.

桌上型電腦和筆記型電腦的使用率幾乎掛零。

It's almost entirely on mobile phones, and these mobile phones tend not to be the expensive, very powerful ones.

幾乎都是藉由手機來上網，而且通常是較便宜、效能不佳的手機。

They have limited amounts of storage.

這些手機的容量有限。

This is prompting big tech companies to change the way their products work.

這也督促大型科技公司改變自家產品的使用方法。

They're having to understand these new behaviors.

他們必須了解這些新的消費者行為。

They're having to fundamentally rethink how they supply their services.

他們必須從根本上重新思考要如何提供服務。

For much of the world that is now coming online, text is not the natural way to interact.

對於大部分剛接觸網路的人，文字並不是最自然的互動方式。

It's smaller Apps that can do more and that can be used with voice or video rather than text.

他們需要輕量又能做很多事的 App ，還要能用聲音或影像操作，而非文字操作。

Many tech giants have already begun to establish themselves in emerging markets.

很多科技巨擘已在新興市場卡位。

Facebook has over 1.5 billion users in developing countries.

臉書在開發中國家有超過十五億用戶。

And the YouTube channel with the most subscribers is a Bollywood studio and record label.

YouTube 最多人訂閱的頻道，是一家寶萊塢唱片公司。

Creating large user bases is one thing.

坐擁大量的用戶數是一回事。

Making money from them is another.

從中賺錢獲利又是另一回事。

The prevailing assumption around making money on the Internet until this point has been a largely American assumption of advertising.

現今盛行能在網路上賺錢的說法，源自於美國對於廣告收入的假設。

99% of Facebook's revenue comes from advertising, as does 85% of Google's.

臉書 99% 的收入來自廣告，谷歌 85% 的收入也是。

But many people in the developing world are poor.

但發展中國家大部分都是窮人。

So users don't have the same value to advertisers.

所以用戶數對廣告商來說，並沒有相同的價值。

Take Facebook's last quarter of 2018.

來看看臉書 2018 年第四季。

They make 12 times as much money per user in North America than they do in Asia.

平均每個北美用戶身上賺到的金額，是亞洲使用者的 12 倍。

And overall annual revenue from the developing world is much lower too.

從發展中國家賺得的年度收入也低很多。

Google for instance, about 46% of their revenues comes from the US alone and only about 15% from Asia.

以谷歌為例，他們約 46% 的收入來自美國，只有 15% 來自亞洲。

That 15% includes rich countries like Australia and Japan.

亞州的 15% 還包含澳洲、日本等較富裕的國家。

Take those away and the revenue from Asia would be even lower.

若扣掉這兩國，來自亞洲的收入會更低。

If the traditional advertising model isn't going to work, tech companies will have to think outside the box.

如果傳統廣告模型不適用，科技公司必須跳脫常規思考。

What people will pay for is the opportunity to express themselves.

人們願意付費購買展現自我的機會。

Until the advent of smartphones really, a big money-spinner for Indian mobile networks was something called a caller-ringback tone.

在智慧型手機出現以前，印度電信公司的搖錢樹，是個叫做「來電答鈴」的東西。

I would pick a song that I like very much, and if you were calling me, you would hear it.

我會選一首很喜歡的歌，你打電話給我的話，你就會聽到這首歌。

And I pay a monthly fee for that to happen.

而我會為此付月租費。

Now think about exactly what this is.

好好思考，想想看這代表什麼。

I am paying money for a song I will never listen to, only so that my friends who are calling me can hear it because I want to express myself.

我付錢買自己聽不到的歌曲，僅僅是要讓朋友來電時聽得到，因為我想要展現自我。

So it'll be lots of novel ideas like that for very, very small amounts of money.

所以會冒出許多這類新奇的點子，而且只要付一點點錢。

But we're talking about lots and lots of people doing these things.

但我們提到過，用戶數非常多。

One thing is for sure.

有件事是肯定的。

The Internet's second revolution will change people's lives for the better.

第二次網際網路革命，會讓人類的生活變得更好。

The ability of people around the world to have a good time is becoming a little bit more equal.

世界各地人們享樂的能力，逐漸往更平等的方向前進。

And that, while hard to pin down in economic data, is a net benefit to just the general well-being of humankind.

儘管很難以經濟數據來定義這些發展，卻是全體人類的福祉。

Which can be very easy to understate or to ignore, especially if you're used to those things, but has a really meaningful impact.

這些效益很容易被低估、甚至忽視，尤其當你已經太習慣有網路，但它已經帶來極具意義的影響。