Name: 為什麼航空公司會超額預訂班機？| CNBC解釋 (Why do airlines overbook flights? | CNBC Explains)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T08:23:06.000Z
Duration: 7 min 55 s

你有遇過因客滿而無法搭乘原定班機的經驗嗎？

分詞構句

I'm talking about buying a plane ticket, packing your bags, getting to the airport and then finding out that the airline has deliberately overbooked your flight and you no longer have a seat.

就是買好了機票，收好行李，結果到了機場卻發現航空公司竟然是故意超賣，然後就沒有你的機位了。

Most of us hate when this happens, so why do airlines continue to do it?

大部分的人都討厭這種狀況發生，那為什麼航空公司仍然繼續這樣做呢？

Airlines have been deliberately overbooking flights for decades.

其實幾十年來航空公司都一直故意超賣。

Following the deregulation of the airline industry in 1978, airlines became incentivised to increase the number of passengers on their flights.

隨著 1978 年對航空業的放寬管制，航空公司開始受到鼓勵，並提升航班上的乘客量。

And they identified one big missed opportunity for more revenue - all those sold but empty seats.

後來他們發現這做法會錯失一個賺錢的機會，所有機位都清空但卻會出現空位。

In fact, most flights take off without their seats completely filled.

事實上，有不少航班是在有空位的狀況下起飛。

Now for many, this may sound greedy but airlines argue that overbooking is a way for them to provide a long-term, sustainable service in a very competitive industry.

對許多人來說這可能聽起來很貪婪，但航空公司卻認為，超賣讓他們在競爭激烈的市場中提供一個長期和可持續的服務。

It helps them whether a number of variables that can affect their profit margins, such as rising labor costs and changing fuel prices.

這樣有助於他們了解可能會影響其淨利率的變數，像是勞動成本上升和燃料價格的變化。

Recently the International Air Transport Association downgraded its 2019 outlook for the global air industry by more than $7 billion in large part due to the rising price of jet fuel.

最近，由於航空燃油價格上漲，國際航空運輸協會把 2019 年的全球航空業前景評級下調超過 70 億美元。

So overselling plane tickets helps airlines maximize profits, but according to industry experts it also benefits passengers.

所以機票超賣有助於航空公司把利潤最大化，但根據行業專家稱，此做法其實乘客也會受惠。

It gives them more choice and access when booking flights and lets the airlines charge less for a ticket too.

因為在預訂航班時，提供給乘客更多選擇和查詢媒介，並讓航空公司收取更少的機票費用。

Overbooking, as well as unplanned operational issues, meant that in the U.S. last year more than 380 thousand passengers were denied boarding.

機票超賣以及其他無預警的營運問題，表示去年在美國有超過 38 萬名乘客被拒絕登機。

Most were voluntary, but nearly 12,000 passengers didn't have a choice.

雖然大部分的人主動放棄機位，但有將近 12,000 位乘客根本沒有選擇。

When overbooking flights, most airlines use sophisticated revenue management systems to choose which seats to oversell.

當出現航班超賣的情況，大部分的航空公司會以先進的收益管理系統來選擇哪些位子可以超賣。

These systems are powered by AI software that analyzes historical flight data and other variables like date, time and even special events, enabling airlines to profile the type of fare sold and estimate the number of empty seats there will be.

系統透過人工智能運作，可以分析過去的航班數據和其他的變數，如日期、時間，甚至是特殊事件，好讓航空公司能夠分析所售的票價類型並估算將出現的虛耗量。

For instance, it may spot an increased risk of no show passengers on connecting flights, who might miss their connection if their first flight is delayed.

比如系統可能會發現轉機航班上未如期出現的乘客的風險增加，因為他們第一趟航班誤點，就有可能會趕不上後面轉機的航班。

There's also a chance that tickets booked speculatively may result in empty seats.

也有可能是推測預訂的機票導致出現空位。

For example, large optional group bookings may later end up requiring less seats than expected, which is why airlines will oversell these flights until seats are named and paid for.

舉例來說，大型團體的預定機位最終有可能會要得比原定的少，這也就是航空公司在落實乘客名單和付錢前都會先超賣的原因。

Once confirmed, group bookings are highly likely to show up, which means the airline's need to overbook will actually reduce.

一旦確認後，因團體訂票的乘客出現的機率會比較高，也就代表航空公司實際超賣的需求會減少。

Airlines are also alert to flights with passengers on flexible tickets.

航空公司對訂購彈性機票的乘客會特別有警覺心。

These tickets cost more, but allow travelers to change their flights without a fee.

這類型的機票價錢會較高，但卻可以讓旅客不用因改變航班而收取額外的費用。

Usually used by business travelers, flexible tickets are a big reason for airlines overselling flights.

通常都會是商務旅客，彈性的機票也是航空公司超賣的一個重要因素。

There's also a high chance that this type of traveler books flexible tickets on multiple flights to cover their options, leaving at least one seat empty.

這類型的旅客有很大的可能會預定多個彈性的航班以滿足自己的選擇，也就至少會有一個空座位。

This was especially true with the Concorde.

The supersonic jet could only seat 100 passengers, yet British Airways and Air France reportedly sold up to 130 tickets for each flight knowing that the majority of passengers were business travelers, booked on flexible tickets and could change their mind on what flight to catch at the last minute.

超音速客機只能容納 100 名乘客，但根據報導指出英航和法航的每一個航班都會售出多達 130 張機票，而大部分的乘客是商務旅客，他們也都是買彈性票價，可以在最後一秒鐘決定更改搭乘的航班。

If BA and Air France hadn't oversold those flights, the empty seats would have been a huge hit to their profitability.

如果英航和法航沒有超賣的話，這對他們的盈利率帶來巨大的衝擊。

Conversely, if the ticket is non-refundable or non-flexible, it's more likely the passenger will turn up.

相反地，如果機票是不可退款或是非彈性的話，乘客出現的機會較大。

This is often the case for budget carriers.

Many of these airlines tend to not overbook as much, due to the low rates of no-shows, around roughly 5%.

因為缺席率較低，所以這些航空公司往往不太會超賣，大約只有 5% 左右。

Even with sophisticated airline revenue management systems, empty seats are still an issue for airlines.

即使航空公司擁有先進的收益管理系統，但空座位仍然是業界一個頭痛的問題。

Last year the global passenger load factor was 81.9%.

That means that on average planes are flying with almost 20% of its seats empty.

這代表平均有 20% 的座位是空的。

You'd be forgiven for thinking the number of people being denied boarding has increased, thanks to the many incidents that have gone viral on social media in recent years.

如果你認為被拒絕登機的人數增加是無可厚非的，因為近年來不少同類型的事件在社交媒體上瘋傳。

But as data gathering and technology has improved, that number has actually been in decline.

而隨著收集所得的數據和技術的改進，數字的確已經下降。

In 2018, there was a total of 11,835 involuntary denied boardings by the 10 biggest American airlines.

2018 年，美國 10 家最大的航空公司有 11,835 名乘客被迫放棄機位。

That may sound a lot but it works out as just 0.14 involuntary bumps for every 10,000 passengers booked to fly, the lowest number since records began in 1995.

這數據聽起來好像很高，實際上每 10,000 名預計飛行的乘客只有 0.14 次會被丟包，是自 1995 年以來最低。

Still, sometimes too many people do turn up for a flight.

儘管如此，有時又會有太多人出現。

First airlines will ask if any passengers are willing to give up their seat, also known as voluntary denied boarding.

首先，航空公司會先詢問是否有乘客願意自動放棄座位，也就是自願性離機。

The vast majority of overbookings in the U.S. last year, around 97% were solved voluntarily.

去年，美國大多數超賣的航班中有 97% 是自願放棄。

But if there aren't enough volunteers, airlines will then involuntarily bump passengers at the airport.

如果自願放棄的人數不足的話，航空公司會自行決定把一些乘客丟包在機場。

The criteria for who is denied boarding varies depending on the airline.

拒絕登機的標準因各家航空公司而異。

However, according to some industry experts, you're less likely to get bumped if you're traveling in first class, have an ultra high status in the airline's frequent flyer program, or you're traveling with your family.

可是根據一些專家稱，如果你是搭頭等艙的話，因為你在航空公司享至高無上的地位，或是你是跟家人一起旅行的話，也都不太可能會被丟包。

If you're traveling alone, one of the last passengers to check in and bought your ticket last minute or at a cheap fare, then you're more likely to get bumped.

但倘若你是一個人旅行的話，又是最後一位才辦理登機手續並在最後一刻才購買機票，或是在最後一秒買到的便宜機票，那你就有可能會被丟包。

And if you are involuntarily denied boarding, there's nothing you can do about it.

如果你因此被拒絕登機的話，那也沒什麼可以做的了。

That's because when you book a flight you're agreeing to the airline's contract of carriage.

因為當你預訂航班的時候，你是同意航空公司的運送合約。

The terms and conditions within that contract state that the airline has the right to deny boarding to any passenger they wish.

該合約中的條款和條件都列出航空公司有權拒絕任何他們希望的乘客登機。

So, are passengers at the mercy of airlines?

那代表乘客受制於航空公司嗎？

Legislation on passengers' rights vary around the world, so it depends on where you are and which airline you're flying with.

世界各地針對乘客權力的法規都不一樣，因此是取決於你的所在地和你搭乘的航空公司。

If you're flying to or from EU airports on a European airline, you are generally well protected.

如果你搭乘歐洲的航空公司往返歐盟國的機場，就可以得到很好的保護。

That's because of the EU's Flight Compensation Regulation.

這是因為受到歐盟的飛行補償條例的保障。

Let's say you've been denied boarding on your overbooked flight from London to Paris.

假使你被拒絕登機登上從倫敦到巴黎的超賣航班。

One is a full refund of the ticket plus a return flight to your original point of departure if you had traveled on a connecting flight.

第一，機票全額退款以及如果你乘坐的是轉機航班，可以搭乘返回出發地回程的航班。

Or you can request to be re-routed to your final destination as soon as possible or at a later date that suits you.

或可以要求盡快或是日期能配合的航班，可以重新讓你抵達最終目的地。

Regardless of which option you choose to take, or the duration of your delay, you're also entitled to compensation relative to the flight distance.

無論你的選擇是什麼，或是選擇延後時間，你都是有權力獲得相對飛行距離的補償。

In the U.S., compensation for being bumped is based on the duration of your delay and whether it is a domestic or international flight.

而在美國，這種情況的賠償會是根據你延誤的時間以及是國內或國際航班。

If you were involuntarily bumped off but arrived no more than an hour after your originally scheduled arrival on another flight, you receive no compensation whatsoever.

如果你是被強迫放棄，但是在最初原定抵達時間的一個小時內，搭乘另外一個班航班抵達目的地的話，就不獲任何賠償。

If the airline doesn't organize substitute travel arrangements, then the maximum you can claim is $1,350 on a domestic flight, regardless of whether the cost of the ticket exceeds that amount.

如果航空公司沒有替代方案，那麼無論機票的費用是否超過該數額，國內的航班都可以申請賠償，最高金額為 1,350 美元。

Airlines can offer such compensation in cash, travel vouchers or a combination of the two.

有些航空公司會以現金、優惠券或這兩者的組合作為賠償。

You may be surprised to hear that there are passengers who love getting bumped and will intentionally book flights at the busiest times to increase their chances.

您可能會很驚訝，竟然有些乘客喜歡被丟包，還會故意在最繁忙的時間預訂機票，以增加他們獲得賠償的機會。

Some airlines, like American carrier United, offer up to $10,000 compensation for passengers who get bumped.

有一些航空公司，如美國聯合航空，被丟包的乘客可獲高達 10,000 美元的賠償。

People who need to travel urgently also benefit.

對於說走就走的旅客也能受惠。

They can buy tickets for a departure, even though it's theoretically sold out.

即使理論上機票已售罄，但他們還可以購買出發的機票。

In addition, filling every seat on a flight helps reduce the environmental impact per passenger, at a time when commercial aviation faces criticism for its carbon footprint.

此外，在商業航空面臨「碳足蹟」的批評之際，把航班上的每個座位填滿也有助於減少每位乘客對環境所造成的影響。

As artificial intelligence and algorithms improve, the number of jetsetters being denied boarding will continue to decline.

隨著人工智慧和演算法獲得改善，被拒絕登上客機的乘客數量將會繼續下降。

But airlines make more money from overselling flights than they lose from compensating passengers without seats.

不過，其實航空公司從超賣航班所賺的錢並沒有因賠償乘客有所損失，反而還可以賺錢。

And that means the current business model isn't likely to change anytime soon.

這代表目前的營運模式不太可能會在短時間內有任何的改變。

So don't be surprised the next time you get bumped.

所以下次被丟包的話不用感到驚訝。

If you want to see more of our content then check out these videos.

想要查看更多的內容，請收看這些影片。

And we'd love to know your stories about being bumped, how bad was it?

我們想知道你被丟包的故事，到底有多糟？

Comment below the video to let us know and remember, don't forget to subscribe.

在影片下方留言讓我們知道，不要忘記訂閱我們的頻道。