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  • Globalization is a fact. A lot of globalization is

  • because of technological improvements that

  • enable it; some is because of policy choices.

  • Unbalanced globalization is good for the working class,

  • but it comes with really big downsides and

  • we need to do a better job of dealing with those downsides.

  • It's really important to understand that

  • you know, our globalization problem isn't because

  • other countries are unfair to us. So if your goal is

  • to make other countries more fair to us, that's

  • going to do very little to solve the problem.

  • The bulk of what we need to do manage globalization

  • better isn't in the international arena at all.

  • It's in our domestic policies, and what we do to

  • help educate and train our workers to succeed,

  • what we do to help our workers be more mobile

  • from place to place in the economy, and to let

  • our businesses have the infrastructure to take

  • advantage of those global opportunities.

  • Most important is what we can do to equip people

  • to succeed in a world with globalization, a world

  • with artificial intelligence, changing technology.

  • If you look just at training right now we

  • spend 0.2% of GDP in the United

  • States on training (labor-market programs). That's the lowest of any of

  • the advanced economies in the oecd. So I think

  • that's something that we actually just need to

  • invest more in. Now we also need to be smart about

  • those investments. Training programs have a mixed record.

  • Mixed means that

  • some have been bad, some of have been good, and we need

  • to understand better what makes them

  • good. Community colleges is one where the

  • evidence is overwhelmingly strong for it.

  • That's something where we've made very little

  • federal investment in the past.

  • A lot of it depends on the person's age. If the person is

  • 30, 35 -- there is training that can help. But you

  • know, a lot of what we can do is invest also in

  • their children, and their jobs, and their economic

  • future. And there is a huge amount we can do.

  • By the time you're 55 or 60, we need to have

  • a more honest conversation and say, you know what,

  • if you used to have a job making $70,000, and the best

  • you can do now is $40,000, we're not gonna spend

  • $15,000 training you and get nothing out of

  • it. We'll just give you $15,000 in cash. You'll

  • get it every year for the next couple of years.

  • And it's sometimes called wage insurance and

  • that eases some of the transition helps keep

  • people in the workforce.

  • The unemployment rate being below four percent

  • shows that we're in a great place in the

  • business cycle. We have really strong demand.

  • The fact, though, that 12 percent of men between the

  • age of 25 and 54 aren't working and aren't trying

  • to find a job -- that's a really big problem.

  • That's a problem that has been decades in the making.

  • It wasn't caused by the recession, although it was

  • exacerbated by the recession, and it's not a

  • problem that we could solve with monetary or

  • fiscal policy. It's something we need to make

  • bigger economic changes

  • to deal with. So I would increase demand for

  • those workers by, for example, investing in

  • infrastructure. I would make it easier to find a

  • job by doing things like reforming the

  • unemployment insurance program to make it much

  • more of a job placement or even apprenticeship

  • program, that puts people into jobs. And

  • education and training -- it's not gonna work for

  • everyone, but it's gonna help for a lot.

  • I think those are three steps that we could take.

  • When it comes to women, all those steps would help

  • but it would also be very helpful if the

  • United States moved more in line with the rest of the world

  • in terms of subsidies for child care, paid leave,

  • more flexible workplaces, to enable more women, especially, to work.

  • I think the United States is

  • really good at flexibility in labor markets. We're

  • really bad at security in labor markets. And the

  • places that have been most successful, like the

  • Nordic countries, have combined the two of

  • those. If people had more security they would

  • feel free to take a little bit more of a risk --

  • they'd be a little bit less worried about the

  • downside of globalization

  • And we could make our labor markets function better.

  • I tend to be a little bit "small-c" conservative

  • that if they're making too big a change, it makes

  • me nervous. Universal basic income would require

  • nearly doubling income taxes in this country.

  • I think it's based on the premise that there

  • won't be jobs for people. I think our premise

  • should be that there will be jobs for people.

  • The one big idea that I do have some sympathy for, and

  • it might be worth thinking more about, would

  • be a larger-scale system of wage subsidies that

  • if you don't make

  • as much at your job, the government would pay [you].

  • Extra would show up in your paycheck and it would

  • both reward work and encourage it.

  • There's a whole group of people who think that

  • something really different is happening and that

  • we're in some brand new space of innovation -- there will

  • be robots that come and take everyone's jobs.

  • I just don't see that in history, as new

  • technologies come they destroy jobs and they

  • create jobs, and I don't see that in the data

  • because, in fact, productivity growth is lower now

  • than it used to be. Which is to say there are

  • fewer machines taking humans' jobs rather than

  • more. So I don't think we're in some brand new era of

  • change but what I do think we are in an era of

  • change, just like we were in 10 years ago, just like

  • we were in 20 years ago, just like we were in 30 years ago.

  • And 10, 20, and 30 years ago, I don't think we

  • did everything we could to handle that change

  • as well as possible.

Globalization is a fact. A lot of globalization is

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全球化、機器人和全民基本收入。傑森-弗曼關於未來工作的看法 (Globalization, robots, and universal basic income: Jason Furman on the future of work)

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    王惟惟 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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