字幕列表 影片播放 列印英文字幕 Globalization is a fact. A lot of globalization is because of technological improvements that enable it; some is because of policy choices. Unbalanced globalization is good for the working class, but it comes with really big downsides and we need to do a better job of dealing with those downsides. It's really important to understand that you know, our globalization problem isn't because other countries are unfair to us. So if your goal is to make other countries more fair to us, that's going to do very little to solve the problem. The bulk of what we need to do manage globalization better isn't in the international arena at all. It's in our domestic policies, and what we do to help educate and train our workers to succeed, what we do to help our workers be more mobile from place to place in the economy, and to let our businesses have the infrastructure to take advantage of those global opportunities. Most important is what we can do to equip people to succeed in a world with globalization, a world with artificial intelligence, changing technology. If you look just at training right now we spend 0.2% of GDP in the United States on training (labor-market programs). That's the lowest of any of the advanced economies in the oecd. So I think that's something that we actually just need to invest more in. Now we also need to be smart about those investments. Training programs have a mixed record. Mixed means that some have been bad, some of have been good, and we need to understand better what makes them good. Community colleges is one where the evidence is overwhelmingly strong for it. That's something where we've made very little federal investment in the past. A lot of it depends on the person's age. If the person is 30, 35 -- there is training that can help. But you know, a lot of what we can do is invest also in their children, and their jobs, and their economic future. And there is a huge amount we can do. By the time you're 55 or 60, we need to have a more honest conversation and say, you know what, if you used to have a job making $70,000, and the best you can do now is $40,000, we're not gonna spend $15,000 training you and get nothing out of it. We'll just give you $15,000 in cash. You'll get it every year for the next couple of years. And it's sometimes called wage insurance and that eases some of the transition helps keep people in the workforce. The unemployment rate being below four percent shows that we're in a great place in the business cycle. We have really strong demand. The fact, though, that 12 percent of men between the age of 25 and 54 aren't working and aren't trying to find a job -- that's a really big problem. That's a problem that has been decades in the making. It wasn't caused by the recession, although it was exacerbated by the recession, and it's not a problem that we could solve with monetary or fiscal policy. It's something we need to make bigger economic changes to deal with. So I would increase demand for those workers by, for example, investing in infrastructure. I would make it easier to find a job by doing things like reforming the unemployment insurance program to make it much more of a job placement or even apprenticeship program, that puts people into jobs. And education and training -- it's not gonna work for everyone, but it's gonna help for a lot. I think those are three steps that we could take. When it comes to women, all those steps would help but it would also be very helpful if the United States moved more in line with the rest of the world in terms of subsidies for child care, paid leave, more flexible workplaces, to enable more women, especially, to work. I think the United States is really good at flexibility in labor markets. We're really bad at security in labor markets. And the places that have been most successful, like the Nordic countries, have combined the two of those. If people had more security they would feel free to take a little bit more of a risk -- they'd be a little bit less worried about the downside of globalization And we could make our labor markets function better. I tend to be a little bit "small-c" conservative that if they're making too big a change, it makes me nervous. Universal basic income would require nearly doubling income taxes in this country. I think it's based on the premise that there won't be jobs for people. I think our premise should be that there will be jobs for people. The one big idea that I do have some sympathy for, and it might be worth thinking more about, would be a larger-scale system of wage subsidies that if you don't make as much at your job, the government would pay [you]. Extra would show up in your paycheck and it would both reward work and encourage it. There's a whole group of people who think that something really different is happening and that we're in some brand new space of innovation -- there will be robots that come and take everyone's jobs. I just don't see that in history, as new technologies come they destroy jobs and they create jobs, and I don't see that in the data because, in fact, productivity growth is lower now than it used to be. Which is to say there are fewer machines taking humans' jobs rather than more. So I don't think we're in some brand new era of change but what I do think we are in an era of change, just like we were in 10 years ago, just like we were in 20 years ago, just like we were in 30 years ago. And 10, 20, and 30 years ago, I don't think we did everything we could to handle that change as well as possible.
A2 初級 美國腔 全球化、機器人和全民基本收入。傑森-弗曼關於未來工作的看法 (Globalization, robots, and universal basic income: Jason Furman on the future of work) 16 1 王惟惟 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日 更多分享 分享 收藏 回報 影片單字