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  • So, there's about seven and a half billion of us.

    譯者: Lo Hsien Huang 審譯者: Helen Chang

  • The World Health Organization tells us that 300 million of us are depressed,

    世界上大約有七十五億人口

  • and about 800,000 people take their lives every year.

    世界衛生組織告訴我們 有三億人有憂鬱症

  • A tiny subset of them choose a profoundly nihilistic route,

    而且每年有八十萬人自殺

  • which is they die in the act of killing as many people as possible.

    當中一小群人採取 一種極端虛無主義的路線

  • These are some famous recent examples.

    就是他們死的時候 也要盡可能殺死愈多人愈好

  • And here's a less famous one. It happened about nine weeks ago.

    這些是近期知名的案子

  • If you don't remember it,

    這個案子則比較少人知道 它發生在九個星期前

  • it's because there's a lot of this going on.

    如果你不記得它

  • Wikipedia just last year counted 323 mass shootings

    那是因為很多類似的事不斷上演

  • in my home country, the United States.

    根據維基百科,光是去年 就有 323 起大規模槍擊事件

  • Not all of those shooters were suicidal,

    發生在我的祖國:美國

  • not all of them were maximizing their death tolls,

    並非所有兇手都有自殺傾向

  • but many, many were.

    並非所有兇手都想 把死亡人數衝到最高

  • An important question becomes: What limits do these people have?

    但許多兇手的確是如此

  • Take the Vegas shooter.

    關鍵的問題變成是: 這些兇手殺人有沒有限度?

  • He slaughtered 58 people.

    比如,拉斯維加斯槍擊案兇手

  • Did he stop there because he'd had enough?

    他屠殺了 58 人

  • No, and we know this because he shot and injured another 422 people

    他停下來,是因為殺夠了嗎?

  • who he surely would have preferred to kill.

    我們知道不是如此 因為他還射傷另外 422 人

  • We have no reason to think he would have stopped at 4,200.

    他當時肯定想殺掉這些人

  • In fact, with somebody this nihilistic, he may well have gladly killed us all.

    我們沒理由認為 他會在殺了 4200 人時停手

  • We don't know.

    事實上,這麼虛無主義的人 他可能很樂意殺光我們

  • What we do know is this:

    我們不知道

  • when suicidal murderers really go all in,

    我們確實知道一點:

  • technology is the force multiplier.

    有自殺傾向的兇手賭上一切時

  • Here's an example.

    科技加強了殺傷力

  • Several years back, there was a rash of 10 mass school attacks in China

    這裡有個案例

  • carried out with things like knives and hammers and cleavers,

    幾年前,中國爆發了一連串 共十起大規模學校攻擊事件

  • because guns are really hard to get there.

    武器包括刀子、鐵槌、切肉刀

  • By macabre coincidence, this last attack occurred

    因為在中國很難取得槍枝

  • just hours before the massacre in Newtown, Connecticut.

    恐怖的巧合是 最後一次攻擊的發生時間

  • But that one American attack killed roughly the same number of victims

    只比康乃狄克州紐敦大屠殺早幾小時

  • as the 10 Chinese attacks combined.

    但這場美國攻擊事件的受害人數

  • So we can fairly say, knife: terrible; gun: way worse.

    大約等同那十起中國攻擊事件 受害人數的加總

  • And airplane: massively worse,

    所以,我們可以公平地說 刀子:很可怕;槍枝:更糟糕

  • as pilot Andreas Lubitz showed when he forced 149 people

    飛機:糟糕透頂了

  • to join him in his suicide,

    因為飛行員安德烈亞斯·盧比茨 證明了他可以強迫 149 個人

  • smashing a plane into the French Alps.

    陪他一起自殺

  • And there are other examples of this.

    將一架飛機開去撞法國阿爾卑斯山

  • And I'm afraid there are far more deadly weapons in our near future than airplanes,

    還有像這樣的其他案例

  • ones not made of metal.

    我擔心不久的將來 還會出現比飛機更致命的武器

  • So let's consider the apocalyptic dynamics that will ensue

    不是用金屬做的

  • if suicidal mass murder hitches a ride on a rapidly advancing field

    我們來想一下 如果有自殺傾向的兇手

  • that for the most part holds boundless promise for society.

    利用一個快速進步的科技 會造成什麼樣的大災難

  • Somewhere out there in the world, there's a tiny group of people

    而且這個科技還為社會帶來無限前景

  • who would attempt, however ineptly,

    在世界的某處有一小群人

  • to kill us all if they could just figure out how.

    不論做法多笨拙,也會嘗試

  • The Vegas shooter may or may not have been one of them,

    殺光我們所有人 只要他們想出辦法來

  • but with seven and a half billion of us,

    拉斯維加斯槍擊案兇手 可能是這種人,也可能不是

  • this is a nonzero population.

    但世界上有七十五億人

  • There's plenty of suicidal nihilists out there.

    絕對會有這種人存在

  • We've already seen that.

    外面有不少自殺傾向的虛無主義者

  • There's people with severe mood disorders that they can't even control.

    我們已經看過了

  • There are people who have just suffered deranging traumas, etc. etc.

    有些人具有嚴重的情緒失調 他們自己甚至無法控制

  • As for the corollary group,

    也有人受到精神上的創傷等等

  • its size was simply zero forever until the Cold War,

    這類的人

  • when suddenly, the leaders of two global alliances

    在冷戰時期前,人數始終是零

  • attained the ability to blow up the world.

    突然間,世界兩大聯盟的領導人

  • The number of people with actual doomsday buttons

    擁有可以炸掉全世界的能力

  • has stayed fairly stable since then.

    從那之後,擁有末日按鈕的人數

  • But I'm afraid it's about to grow,

    就一直維持不變

  • and not just to three.

    但我擔心這個人數要開始成長了

  • This is going off the charts.

    而且不只從兩人變成三人

  • I mean, it's going to look like a tech business plan.

    這人數將會爆表

  • (Laughter)

    看起來像科技公司的商業計畫一樣

  • And the reason is,

    (笑聲)

  • we're in the era of exponential technologies,

    而且理由是

  • which routinely take eternal impossibilities

    我們身處在指數成長的科技時代

  • and make them the actual superpowers of one or two living geniuses

    這個時代會一直挑戰永遠不可能的事

  • and -- this is the big part --

    然後把這些事轉變成天才般的超能力

  • then diffuse those powers to more or less everybody.

    而且,重點是:

  • Now, here's a benign example.

    接著會將那些超能力 普及到每個人身上

  • If you wanted to play checkers with a computer in 1952,

    舉一個無害的例子

  • you literally had to be that guy,

    在 1952 年,如果你想要 用電腦玩西洋跳棋

  • then commandeer one of the world's 19 copies of that computer,

    你就一定得是那個傢伙

  • then used your Nobel-adjacent brain to teach it checkers.

    然後一定要使用那種電腦 而世界上僅有十九台

  • That was the bar.

    再用你聰明絕頂的大腦來教它下棋

  • Today, you just need to know someone who knows someone who owns a telephone,

    你要面對這些限制

  • because computing is an exponential technology.

    現今,你只需要認識某個人 而他又認識有手機的人即可

  • So is synthetic biology,

    因為運算是一種指數成長的科技

  • which I'll now refer to as "synbio."

    合成生物學也是如此

  • And in 2011, a couple of researchers did something every bit as ingenious

    接下來我會簡稱為「合生學」

  • and unprecedented as the checkers trick

    2011 年,幾位研究員 做了一件事情

  • with H5N1 flu.

    和西洋跳棋的把戲一樣巧妙且空前

  • This is a strain that kills up to 60 percent of the people it infects,

    但應用在 H5N1 流感上

  • more than Ebola.

    被這類病毒感染的人 高達六成會死亡

  • But it is so uncontagious

    致死率比伊波拉還高

  • that it's killed fewer than 50 people since 2015.

    但它的傳染性不強

  • So these researchers edited H5N1's genome

    所以從 2015 年之後 死亡人數不到五十個

  • and made it every bit as deadly, but also wildly contagious.

    這些研究員編輯 H5N1 基因組

  • The news arm of one of the world's top two scientific journals

    讓它維持原本的致命性 還能廣泛傳染

  • said if this thing got out, it would likely cause a pandemic

    世界前兩大科學期刊之一的 新聞部門指出

  • with perhaps millions of deaths.

    如果這東西流出去 會造成一場大規模流行病疫情

  • And Dr. Paul Keim said

    可能會有數百萬人死亡

  • he could not think of an organism as scary as this,

    保羅‧克伊姆博士說

  • which is the last thing I personally want to hear

    他想不出比這更可怕的有機體

  • from the Chairman of the National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.

    我最不想從國家生物安全科學 顧問委員會主席口中聽到這話

  • And by the way, Dr. Keim also said this --

    順便一提,克伊姆博士也說過—— 【我不認為炭疽比這更可怕】

  • ["I don't think anthrax is scary at all compared to this."]

    而他也是一位炭疽專家 【我不認為炭疽比這更可怕】

  • And he's also one of these.

    (笑聲)

  • [Anthrax expert] (Laughter)

    在 2011 年有關生物駭客的好消息是

  • Now, the good news about the 2011 biohack

    做這件事的人並不是為了傷害我們

  • is that the people who did it didn't mean us any harm.

    他們是病毒學家

  • They're virologists.

    他們相信自己將科學向前推進

  • They believed they were advancing science.

    壞消息是,這項科技 並沒有適時停下來

  • The bad news is that technology does not freeze in place,

    而且接下來幾十年

  • and over the next few decades,

    一般人要做到他們的壯舉 會變得輕而易舉

  • their feat will become trivially easy.

    事實上,現在就已經容易許多了 因為昨天早上我們得知

  • In fact, it's already way easier, because as we learned yesterday morning,

    在他們研究兩年後

  • just two years after they did their work,

    CRISPR 系統就被用來 做基因組編輯

  • the CRISPR system was harnessed for genome editing.

    這是一項根本性的突破

  • This was a radical breakthrough

    讓基因編輯變得簡單許多

  • that makes gene editing massively easier --

    簡單到現在連高中都在教 CRISPR 了

  • so easy that CRISPR is now taught in high schools.

    這東西的進展速度比電腦運算更快

  • And this stuff is moving quicker than computing.

    上面那條緩慢下降的白線是什麼?

  • That slow, stodgy white line up there?

    那是摩爾定律

  • That's Moore's law.

    它代表電腦運算成本下降有多快

  • That shows us how quickly computing is getting cheaper.

    而那條誇張陡峭的綠線

  • That steep, crazy-fun green line,

    代表基因定序成本下降有多快

  • that shows us how quickly genetic sequencing is getting cheaper.

    基因編輯、合成和定序

  • Now, gene editing and synthesis and sequencing,

    它們是不同的學科,但它們息息相關

  • they're different disciplines, but they're tightly related.

    它們都以驚人的速度在發展

  • And they're all moving in these headlong rates.

    進入這個王國的鑰匙 就是這些極小的資料檔案

  • And the keys to the kingdom are these tiny, tiny data files.

    這是 H5N1 基因組當中的一段

  • That is an excerpt of H5N1's genome.

    整個基因組的長度大概會佔幾張頁面

  • The whole thing can fit on just a few pages.

    別擔心,你回家就可以趕快搜尋一下

  • And yeah, don't worry, you can Google this as soon as you get home.

    網路上到處都有,對吧?

  • It's all over the internet, right?

    讓它變成有傳染性的那一部分

  • And the part that made it contagious

    可以放進一張便利貼

  • could well fit on a single Post-it note.

    只要有位天才做出一個資料檔案

  • And once a genius makes a data file,

    任何白痴都能複製它

  • any idiot can copy it,

    將它發佈到全世界

  • distribute it worldwide

    或把它列印出來

  • or print it.

    我指的不僅是印在這上面

  • And I don't just mean print it on this,

    不用多久,也可以印在這上面

  • but soon enough, on this.

    我們來假想一個情境

  • So let's imagine a scenario.

    比如 2026 年,隨便挑一年

  • Let's say it's 2026, to pick an arbitrary year,

    一位優秀的病毒學家希望科學再進步

  • and a brilliant virologist, hoping to advance science

    為了進一步暸解流行病

  • and better understand pandemics,

    因此設計了一種新的病菌

  • designs a new bug.

    它的傳染性不輸給水痘

  • It's as contagious as chicken pox,

    致命程度和伊波拉一樣

  • it's as deadly as Ebola,

    它醞釀數個月才會爆發

  • and it incubates for months and months before causing an outbreak,

    所以,發現任何危險徵兆前 全世界可能已經被感染了

  • so the whole world can be infected before the first sign of trouble.

    然後,她的大學被駭客入侵

  • Then, her university gets hacked.

    當然,這不是科幻小說

  • And of course, this is not science fiction.

    事實上,美國最近有份起訴書

  • In fact, just one recent US indictment

    記載超過三百間大學被駭客侵入

  • documents the hacking of over 300 universities.

    附帶病菌基因組的檔案 便散播到網路的黑暗角落

  • So that file with the bug's genome on it spreads to the internet's dark corners.

    一旦檔案流出去,就再也回不來了

  • And once a file is out there, it never comes back --

    去問電影或唱片公司的人 他們知道這種事

  • just ask anybody who runs a movie studio or a music label.

    也許在 2026 年

  • So now maybe in 2026,

    要像病毒學家這樣的天才

  • it would take a true genius like our virologist

    才能製造出活生生的異常生物

  • to make the actual living critter,

    但十五年之後

  • but 15 years later,

    可能只要使用任何高中都有的 DNA 列印機就可以辦到

  • it may just take a DNA printer you can find at any high school.

    如果不是這樣?

  • And if not?

    再過幾十年後仍然會成真

  • Give it a couple of decades.

    讓我打個岔

  • So, a quick aside:

    記得這張投影片嗎?

  • Remember this slide here?

    把注意力放在這兩個字上面:

  • Turn your attention to these two words.

    【或許】

  • If somebody tries this and is only 0.1 percent effective,

    如果有人試圖利用這種方式殺人 儘管成功機率只有 0.1%

  • eight million people die.

    就有八百萬人會死亡

  • That's 2,500 9/11s.

    等同九一一事件發生兩千五百次

  • Civilization would survive,

    文明會存活下來

  • but it would be permanently disfigured.

    但它會受到永久性傷害

  • So this means we need to be concerned about anybody

    這就表示我們得要擔心