China trade dispute is essentially about

與中國的貿易爭端，實質上

fairness. The U.S.

就是有關公平貿易的問題。

has long complained that they're not treated

美國長期以來一直抱怨說

fairly by the Chinese that it costs too much to

中國對美國貿易不公平，以致從美國

send American products into China.

輸往中國的產品成本太高。

And along with that the US does not charge enough

同時，美國對於中國輸往美國的產品

for Chinese products that come into the US.

也未課徵足夠的關稅。

Now this has been a topic of conversation for a

這個議題雙方已經討論了很久

long time it's gone through multiple presidents,

它已歷經了多個總統

through administrations, through many Congresses.

政府部門及國會的討論。

The thing is, nobody's ever really done very much

問題是，並沒有見到

about it.

具體的成效。

There have been a few measures here and

美國採取了一些措施

there, some tariffs on Chinese

當中國試圖將某些產品

products when they've tried to dump certain

傾銷到美國時，美國就對這些產品

products into the U.S.

課徵關稅。

but nothing as strenuous and nothing as concrete

但誰也比不上川普政府

and nothing as serious as what the Trump

對中國商品課徵關稅

administration has done with the tariffs

來得更猛、更具體

that it's leveled against Chinese goods.

更認真。

Now of course the Chinese have countered with

當然，中國也可以採取課徵進口關稅的方式

their own tariffs but their retaliatory measures

對美國加以反擊，但他們的報復措施

are somewhat limited in scope.

範圍有限。

So the Chinese basically have three ways that they

中國基本上可以透過三種方式

can retaliate against American tariffs.

對美國課徵關稅的行為進行報復。

One of course is that they can level their own

當然，其中之一就是他們可以課徵

tariffs and they have done that.

進口關稅，而且他們也做了。

Number two is that they can make it more

第二點，中國可以給美國

difficult for U.S.

穿小鞋。

companies to operate in China.

就是使美國公司在中國的營運更困難。

Of course the big one that comes to mind there is

當然，我們想到最大的公司就是

Apple. It could really make Apple's life

蘋果公司。 中國通過一系列措施

miserable through a whole host of measures.

的確可能使蘋果陷入悲慘境地。

The third thing that they can do, and this is

他們可以做的第三件事，就是

what we call the nuclear option, is that they can

我們所說的具有核彈威力的方案，就是他們可以

either stop buying U.S.

停止購買美國國債

treasuries or they can actually start selling

或者可以在市場上

U.S. Treasuries back into the market.

拋售美國國債。

Now the reason why this is such an important

拋售美國國債為何如此重要

thing and why we call it the nuclear option is

之所以稱為具有核彈威力的方案

because China is the largest holder in the world

乃是因為中國是美國債券的

of US debt.

最大持有國。

It's got over a trillion dollars, close to $1.1

中國擁有市值超過一兆美元

trillion dollars in U.S.

將近 1.1 兆美元的

bonds, notes, bills, those those sort of things.

美國長、短期債券，票據之類的金融商品。

And the U.S.

美國指望

counts on China to buy up its debt.

中國購買其債券。

Of course that's very important with the U.S.

當然，這對於美國出現近兆美元的

running nearly trillion dollar deficits which are

財政赤字非常重要

expected to continue as far as the eye can see.

估計在可見的將來，赤字將會持續下去。

So if China is not a big player in that market it

因此，如果中國不是債券市場的大咖

could make life very difficult for the U.S..

那麼美國處境可能會很艱困。

The idea of China going to the nuclear option is

中國採取拋售美債這一方案

something that's been framed in the local media

是當地媒體的心態

there, which of course is its state-run media,

想當然耳，是中國的國營媒體

where they've talked about scholars studying this

他們討論過研究這一個問題的

issue.

一些學者。

Now that's a very calculated type of language

這是一種經過算計後的說法

where they say, 'OK we're just going to study

他們說「我們只是剛準備研究

this. We're going to look at this.'

而已。我們會看看。」

It's basically saber rattling, is what it really

基本上這就是在恫嚇，這才是

comes down to.

他們真正的用意。

They want the US to know that this is something

他們想讓美國知道，這是他們手中

that's on the table.

握有的籌碼。

Everybody knows that the chances of China doing

大家都知道，中國這樣做的可能性

this aren't really good.

並不大。

But as the dispute goes on and if the dispute

但是隨著爭端持續進行

continues to go on, which it's likely to do, it

而爭端的確是很可能繼續下去的

becomes more and more of a possibility where

中國會說我們無法在關稅方面和你們硬幹

China has to say look we can't match you dollar

繼而採取這個反制手段的可能性

for dollar tariff wise. That's

就越來越高。對中國而言

the big thing for them, because the U.S.

這是一件大事，因為美國

obviously imports far more goods from China than

從中國進口的商品顯然

the other way around.

要遠多於中國從美國進口的商品。

So if this continues to go on, if the stakes get

因此，如果這種情況繼續下去，如果美國採取的手段

higher, if feelings continue to get hurt, it

愈來愈強，如果中國情感繼續受到傷害

becomes more and more of a viable possibility for

那麼中國停止購買美國國債

China to step in and stop buying U.S.

或直接出售它們的可能性

Treasuries or sell them outright.

就越來越大。

The big thing for China is that if it does take

對中國來說，最重要的是

this type of nuclear option it will not go

使用如此強烈的反制手段，也會使它自受傷

unscathed, if it does something like

也就是說，如果它真的採取了類似做法的話

that. Because, look, China needs to hold U.S.

因為中國需要持有美國

Treasuries.

國債。

They're still the most liquid instrument in the

就固定收益而言，它們仍然是

world as far as fixed income goes.

世界上流動性最高的金融商品。

They have they carry a pretty decent yield on

它們有相當不錯的報酬率

them. It also would weaken the U.S.

它也將使得美元變弱

dollar, which would make U.S.

使美國跨國公司

multinationals stronger.

變得更強大。

And it would just generally cause a crisis of

這只會使世界各國

confidence within the world that China is

造成中國退出債券市場的

stepping away from this market.

信任危機。

So there is damage that could be done significant

因此，如果中國真的退出債券市場

damage to the Chinese economy if it would step

可能會對中國經濟

away from the market.

造成重大損害。

Now of course that doesn't mean they won't do it.

當然，並不意味著他們一定不會這麼做。

China is under a different political system than

中國的政治體制與美國

the U.S.

不同。

President Trump and Congress, they have to answer

川普總統和國會，必須回應

to the American people.

美國人民的訴求。

The way the Chinese government, the way their

而中國政府，根據其政治體制

political system is set up, President Xi does not

習近平主席不必像

have to answer on the same level that President

川普總統那樣的方式

Trump does. So they can go ahead and they can

回應人民。 所以中國可以朝目標繼續前進

sustain a little bit of

並且可以禁得起受一點

damage. Of course, China's economy is still a

小傷。 當然，中國仍然是一個

very strongly growing economy.

成長非常強勁的經濟體。

So they have a little bit of wiggle room here,

所以他們在這裡有一點討價還價的空間

but not a whole lot.

但不是很多。