Name: 為什麼中國持有的美債是其在特朗普貿易戰中的 "核選擇"？ (Why China's US debt holdings Are Its 'Nuclear Option' In Trump's Trade War)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T08:18:41.000Z
Duration: 4 min 30 s

情態副詞

has long complained that they're not treated

fairly by the Chinese that it costs too much to

中國對美國貿易不公平，以致從美國

And along with that the US does not charge enough

同時，美國對於中國輸往美國的產品

for Chinese products that come into the US.

Now this has been a topic of conversation for a

long time it's gone through multiple presidents,

through administrations, through many Congresses.

The thing is, nobody's ever really done very much

products when they've tried to dump certain

傾銷到美國時，美國就對這些產品

but nothing as strenuous and nothing as concrete

Now of course the Chinese have countered with

當然，中國也可以採取課徵進口關稅的方式

their own tariffs but their retaliatory measures

對美國加以反擊，但他們的報復措施

So the Chinese basically have three ways that they

對美國課徵關稅的行為進行報復。

One of course is that they can level their own

當然，其中之一就是他們可以課徵

就是使美國公司在中國的營運更困難。

Of course the big one that comes to mind there is

當然，我們想到最大的公司就是

蘋果公司。 中國通過一系列措施

miserable through a whole host of measures.

的確可能使蘋果陷入悲慘境地。

The third thing that they can do, and this is

what we call the nuclear option, is that they can

我們所說的具有核彈威力的方案，就是他們可以

treasuries or they can actually start selling

Now the reason why this is such an important

thing and why we call it the nuclear option is

之所以稱為具有核彈威力的方案

because China is the largest holder in the world

It's got over a trillion dollars, close to $1.1

bonds, notes, bills, those those sort of things.

美國長、短期債券，票據之類的金融商品。

Of course that's very important with the U.S.

當然，這對於美國出現近兆美元的

running nearly trillion dollar deficits which are

expected to continue as far as the eye can see.

估計在可見的將來，赤字將會持續下去。

So if China is not a big player in that market it

因此，如果中國不是債券市場的大咖

could make life very difficult for the U.S..

The idea of China going to the nuclear option is

something that's been framed in the local media

there, which of course is its state-run media,

where they've talked about scholars studying this

Now that's a very calculated type of language

where they say, 'OK we're just going to study

It's basically saber rattling, is what it really

They want the US to know that this is something

他們想讓美國知道，這是他們手中

Everybody knows that the chances of China doing

大家都知道，中國這樣做的可能性

But as the dispute goes on and if the dispute

continues to go on, which it's likely to do, it

而爭端的確是很可能繼續下去的

becomes more and more of a possibility where

中國會說我們無法在關稅方面和你們硬幹

China has to say look we can't match you dollar

繼而採取這個反制手段的可能性

obviously imports far more goods from China than

要遠多於中國從美國進口的商品。

So if this continues to go on, if the stakes get

因此，如果這種情況繼續下去，如果美國採取的手段

higher, if feelings continue to get hurt, it

愈來愈強，如果中國情感繼續受到傷害

becomes more and more of a viable possibility for

The big thing for China is that if it does take

this type of nuclear option it will not go

使用如此強烈的反制手段，也會使它自受傷

也就是說，如果它真的採取了類似做法的話

that. Because, look, China needs to hold U.S.

They're still the most liquid instrument in the

世界上流動性最高的金融商品。

They have they carry a pretty decent yield on

And it would just generally cause a crisis of

confidence within the world that China is

So there is damage that could be done significant

因此，如果中國真的退出債券市場

damage to the Chinese economy if it would step

Now of course that doesn't mean they won't do it.

當然，並不意味著他們一定不會這麼做。

China is under a different political system than

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為什麼中國持有的美債是其在特朗普貿易戰中的 "核選擇"？ (Why China's US debt holdings Are Its 'Nuclear Option' In Trump's Trade War)

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essentially

significant

decent