and around 60 percent more food could be needed to feed everyone.

大約還需要 60％ 以上的食物才能養活每個人。

[Marco Springmann] The environmental impacts of the food system are daunting.

[Marco Springmann] 食物系統對環境的影響使人退縮。

It's responsible for about a quarter of our greenhouse gas emissions

它佔我們溫室氣體排放量的四分之一左右，

and uses about 70 percent of all fresh water

而且用了全部淡水資源的 70％ 左右，

resources and it occupies about 40 percent of the Earth's land surface.

約佔地球陸地面積的 40％。

Food-created emissions could increase

食物產生的排放量到了 2050 年

to 50 percent by 2050 and fill up

可能會增加 50％，並填補

the total emissions budget that we have in order to avoid dangerous levels of climate change.

我們用來避免危險氣候變化的排放總預算。

Interest in vegan food has been booming across the rich world.

富裕國家對純素食物的興趣日漸蓬勃。

A major study has put the diet to the test,

有一項重要的研究對飲食進行測試，

analyzing an imagined scenario in which the world goes vegan by 2050.

分析一個虛構的場景，其中世界在 2050 年變成純素主義。

[Marco Springmann] If everybody went vegan

[Marco Springmann] 如果每個人到 2050

by 2050 we estimated that the food-related greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by three quarters.

都變成純素主義，估計與食品相關的溫室氣體排放量可以減少四分之三。

Cows are the biggest emission contributors.

牛是氣體排放量的最大元兇。

Bugs in their digestive system produce methane

牠們消化系統中的病毒會產生甲烷，

and deforestation for their pasture releases carbon dioxide.

為了牠們牧場所做的森林砍伐會釋放二氧化碳。

These gases warm the planet.

這些氣體讓地球升溫。

If cows were a country, they'd be the

如果牛群是一個國家，

third largest greenhouse gas emitter.

那牠們將成為溫室氣體的第三大排放國。

I'm a ninth generation farmer in this area.

我是這個地區的第九代農民。

I grew up on a farm with cows and feeding bulls.

我在一座農場長大，養了許多乳牛和公牛。

Jaap Korteweg comes from a long line of farmers in the Netherlands.

Jaap Korteweg 來自荷蘭，家族世代以農為業。

My goal is to be the biggest butcher in the world.

我的目標是成為世界最大的肉商。

To be doing it for meat lovers,

想為愛吃肉的人做到這點，

but if you don't like meat,

但如果你不愛吃肉，

don't buy our products.

那就別要買我們的產品。

But he's now a butcher with a difference.

但他現在是一個與眾不同的肉商。

I'm the Vegetarian Butcher.

我是個素食肉商。

We are hooked on the taste of meat,

我們很愛肉的味道，

so the only way to change it is to

因此唯一的改變辦法是，

develop products with the same experience without an animal.

開發出相同的產品，但沒有使用到動物。

We can produce beef as big as a front door with the right texture of real beef.

我們可以生產出與前門一樣大的牛肉，同時有真正牛肉的健康肉質。

The equipment we use in our plant-based plants

我們在植物工廠使用的設備

is the same as in the meat factory.

與肉類工廠相同。

The only difference is there is no blood on the floor.

唯一不同的是裡頭沒有任何血。

Jaap made the switch to plant-based meat 11 years ago.

Jaap 在 11 年前轉向植物肉的道路。

He now ships to 17 countries with annual sales of 20 million Euros.

他現在出口到 17 個國家，年銷售額達 2,000 萬歐元。

The ingredients we use are different.

我們用的成分與往常不同。

We use soy, we use lupine,

我們使用大豆、魯冰花

we use wheat, we use peas.

小麥、碗豆。

We look to the meat product we want to copy

我們希望能複製我們想要的肉類產品，

and look for the right ingredients to get the same experience.

並找出合適的成分來到達相同的體驗。

Farmed animals are land hungry.

農場的動物是座飢餓土地。

Over 80 percent of the world's farmland is used for animal production.

世界上 80％ 以上的農田用於動物生產。

But it produces only 18 percent of the world's calories.

但它只生產出世界 18％ 的卡路里。

You need to feed a cow

你餵牛需要用

about 10 kilograms of mostly grains

大約十公斤的穀物

for it to grow by one kilogram.

才能讓牠成長一公斤。

For pigs that's about six kilogram

豬的話大約是六公斤，

and for chicken, three to four kilogram.

而雞的話，三到四公斤。

So a lot of food is wasted as feed for animals that we would then eat.

因此，很多浪費的食物是作為動物飼料，然後我們再吃下肚。

Growing animal feed means more land per calorie of food is needed to produce beef than broccoli.

種植動物飼料代表，生產一大卡牛肉所需的土地遠比花椰菜來得多。

Two-thirds of all

所有農業用地中，

agriculture land is used as pastures

有三分之二作為牧場使用，

and if you saved all those pastures

如果你把這些農地省下來，

if people went vegan

而且如果大家都吃純素，

then that would be the size of the continent of Africa that would be freed.

那會多出一個和非洲大陸一樣大的土地。

And a well-balanced vegan diet,

均衡的純素飲食，

more varied, with less calories could save lives.

更多樣化，熱量更少，可以拯救更多生命。

If the world went vegan in 2050,

如果全世界的人在 2050 年成為純素主義，

we estimated that premature mortality,

我們估計早死

and also all cause mortality,

和所有原因造成的死亡

could be reduced by about 20 percent.

可降低 20％ 左右。

Which could make the global economy healthier too.

這也可能使全球經濟變得更健康。

We know how much money

我們知道用多少錢

is used to treat certain diseases that are associated with diets.

來治療與飲食相關的一些疾病。

Coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer and diabetes.

冠狀動脈心臟病、中風、癌症、糖尿病。

Then we get to an estimate of about one trillion U.S. dollars in 2050 that could be saved.

我們估計在 2050 年可以省下 1 兆美金左右。

That would be about three percent of all home health care related cost.

這佔家庭醫療保健相關費用總額的 3％ 左右。

But global meat consumption is growing around the world by almost three percent a year since 1960.

但自 1960 年以來，全球肉類消費量每年成長近 3％。

Nobody like the way we treat animals in factory farms.

沒有人喜歡我們在農場對待動物的方式。

Nobody like the situation that is not good for our health, not good for the environment,

沒有人喜歡對我們健康或環境不利的情況，

but we all like meat very much.

但我們都很愛吃肉。

While Jaap's firm threatens meat farmers, meat companies and butchers are customers and partners.

然而 Jaap 的農場威脅到肉農、肉類公司、肉販，他們既是顧客也是夥伴。

Meat companies don't own the farmers, so it's easy to change from chickens or pigs to plant-based meat.

肉類公司沒有自己的農民，所以可以很輕易從雞肉或豬肉轉變為植物肉。

If the consumers want it and the market want it

如果顧客或市場想要，

they're happy to change.

他們也樂於改變。

Affordable and accessible alternatives could yet see the rich world hit peak meat and head down the other side.

價格實惠且容易獲得的替代品，可能已在富裕國家達到巔峰，但在另一方面並非如此。

If you look at past trends

如果你注意到過去的趨勢，

it's probably unlikely to assume

其實不太可能難認為

that the world would really go vegan by 2050.

全世界的人在 2050 會變成純素主義。

We found that without large scale dietary changes

我們發現植物性飲食要是沒有

towards more plant-based diets, we would have

大規模的飲食改變，我們可能

a very slim chance of staying below dangerous levels of climate change.

很難保持低於氣候變遷的危險標準 。

But even moving towards a plant-based diet could help.

但即使是轉型成植物性飲食也有所幫助。

Coming to our estimates of

我們估計

predominantly plant-based diet could

主要的植物性飲食可能

get us probably three-quarters of the way.

可以幫助我們達到四分之三。

Governments can play a crucial role by setting the right dietary guidelines.

政府在制定正確的飲食指南上能扮演重要的角色。

They can adopt procurement policies

他們可以採用採購政策，

where it's clear that the standard foods that are ordered are plant-based, healthy and sustainable.

明確表示標準食物的採購是基於植物性、健康性及永續性。

For the Vegetarian Butcher,

對於素食主義的肉販來說，

plant-based meat is just the next step in a long history of developments in the farming world.

植物性肉類只是農業界長遠歷史的下一步。

It's always changing in the agriculture world.

農業界變化無常。

A hundred years ago there were millions of draft horses to transport, to plow.

一百多年前，數百萬頭役用馬要運輸、耕作。

Now they are threatened with extinction

現在牠們面臨著絕種的威脅，

because we don't need work horses anymore.

因為我們不再需要工作馬。

In the future you will use machines

將來會用機器

to produce our meat and the slaughter animals

來生產我們的肉類，而屠宰牲畜

will be threatened with extinction too.

也將面臨滅絕的威脅。

And we only had room for wild chicken and wild pigs.

我們會只剩野雞和野豬的空間。

And that's the future, I hope.

這也是我希望的未來。