...is about much more than trade

不僅存在於貿易

For everything from blockbuster films...

而是已經擴大至各層面，從爭奪熱門電影、

...to lunar exploration...

太空競賽，

...from semiconductors to submarines

乃至於半導體以及海上軍事競賽，

In every domain, they're now rivals

就各層面來說，美中現在是敵對關係，

Superpower relations have soured

兩大強國的關係已處於惡化，

America thinks that China is stealing secrets...

美國認為中國竊取美國機密，

...stealing its way to dominance

以藉此提高掌控世界的話語權，

And then it looks at Chinese behaviour in the South China sea...

美國看著中國近來在南海的行為，

...and bullying countries like Canada and Sweden...

又看著中國欺凌加拿大及瑞典等國家，

...and it thinks that China's beginning to challenge global norms

美國認為中國正在挑戰全球的政治體制。

But it looks very different from Beijing

然而對於中國來說，

From its point of view...

卻是另一種觀點，

...America is trying to block its entirely justified rise

中國認為美國一直試圖阻擋其合法崛起，

For everyone else it seems like the beginnings of a new kind of cold war

在其他國家看來，這似乎是新冷戰的開始，

A cold war that everybody could lose

更是一場沒有人打勝戰的戰爭。

Of course America has fought a cold war before with the Soviet Union...

雖然美國曾與蘇聯處於冷戰狀態，

...and it won

最後也是美國勝出，

So why not just do the same thing again and cut China off?

所以美國也覺得何不再打一場冷戰，然後把中國踢出強權地位？

Isolate it economically

在經濟上全面孤立中國，

Well it's a bit more complicated than that

這其實比想像中的複雜。

In the late 1980s the United States and the Soviet Union...

1980 年代晚期，美國與蘇聯的貿易往來，

...did about $2bn-worth of trade a year

每年約莫是 2 百萬美元，

Today China and the United States do $2bn-worth of trade a day

然而現在中國和美國每天就有 2 百萬美元的貿易往來，

And then there are the allies who helped America...

第一次冷戰時期，美國身邊有許多盟友

...in the first cold war with the Soviet Union

協助阻擋蘇聯發展，

Well they do a lot of business with China...

但現在這些盟友和中國有許多生意往來，

...they want to be able to trade with it

他們希望能繼續和中國進行貿易，

It would cost them a lot to stop...

如果要停止貿易關係，他們會付出很多代價，

...so to persuade them that they must choose security...

因此若想要以安全為理由來說服他們

...over their own prosperity...

犧牲經濟利益，

...would be very hard indeed

將是非常困難的選擇。

The first thing is that the United States...

美國必須要做的第一件事，

...needs to build on its strengths

建立更強的實力，

These are often institutions and alliances...

包括強化與其他國的同盟關係和國際組織，

...the institutions that the United States built after the second world war

這些組織是美國在二次大戰後建立的基礎。

The second thing the United States needs to do...

美國必須做的第二件事，

...is to shore up its defences

強化國防，

And that means defending itself militarily...

也就是加強軍事防禦能力，

...through cyber and space...

尤其是在網路以及太空衛星層面，

...but also defending its technology

更別說是科技方面的防禦能力也要強化。

But the third thing is that the United States and China...

第三件要做的事情，

...need to learn how to live together...

美國和中國要學習如何在這個低信任度的世界

...in a low-trust world

共同生存。

China and America don't have to agree about everything...

美國和中國不需要事事都非得認同對方，

...in order to agree that they should live by some global norms

唯有如此，才能接受彼此有著不同於對方的國際體制。

So you need to find ways to build trust

這必須要尋求能建立信任的方法，

Over North Korea say...

譬如北韓核武、

...over rules for cyberwar or space war

網路戰或是太空戰等問題。

China is challenging America in every domain

中國正全方位挑戰美國，

Business and a profit motive are no longer enough...

貿易往來與經濟利益等理由

...to keep this relationship together

已經無法讓兩國維持合作關係，

What the relationship desperately needs...

現在兩國正迫切需要發展的關係是

...is the building of trust and the building of rules

建立雙方信任以及一種彼此可接受的治理方式，

Unfortunately just now both sides see rules as something to break

不幸地，兩國皆認為破壞是最佳的治理方式。