Name: 【TED】瓦賈哈特-阿里：生孩子的理由（生孩子的理由｜瓦賈哈特-阿里）。 (【TED】Wajahat Ali: The case for having kids (The case for having kids | Wajahat Ali))
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T08:15:59.000Z
Duration: 13 min 1 s

譯者: Helen Chang 審譯者: Marssi Draw

情態副詞

Currently owned and dominated by two mini dictators,

who rule my life with an iron fist while wearing their Huggies diapers.

目前被兩個迷你獨裁者 所擁有及支配著，

他們穿著好奇寶寶尿布， 用鐵腕統治著我。

Now probably because I've been drowning in small people lately,

I've been paying close attention to a particular headline.

可能是因為我近來 一直淹沒在小小人堆裡，

It seems around the world, in developed countries,

似乎在世界各地的已開發國家裡，

From North America to Europe to China to Japan,

there's actually been a consistent decline in birth rates.

從北美到歐洲，從中國到日本，

all point to climate change as a reason for never having babies.

如今我那些不想要孩子的朋友們

And many of you are sitting there right now, saying,

都把氣候變遷當作不生孩子的理由。

現在坐在你們當中的許多人說：

which still exist in many African and Middle Eastern countries,

高出生率仍是許多非洲 和中東國家的景況，

there's also orphan kids who still need parents,

there's also a lack of resources to go around for everyone,

we have a ginormous carbon footprint that is destroying this planet.

還有巨量的碳足跡正摧毀這個星球。

然而，儘管有這些亂糟糟的情況，

I believe we can and should fight for the earth and humanity,

Now, if I could take it personal for a second,

I get it, I get why some of you might be skeptical about having babies.

我完全明白你們當中有些人 對生孩子抱持著懷疑的態度。

Here's a photo of my wife and me before we had kids.

這是愛妻和我生小孩前的一張照片。

Here's the photo of the car I thought I'd be driving as an adult.

原先我以為成年後 要開照片裡這樣的車。

Where there was once hope, now there is convenient space,

曾經有過的希望 現在換成方便的空間，

that I'm completely aware of the very dire threats

我完全清楚全球暖化和氣候變遷

I just want to acknowledge that choosing to have babies

But just for today, let's examine the flip side of the coin.

is going to be a major problem moving forward.

何以成為向前邁進的主要問題。

According to the World Health Organization,

we need to average about 2.1 children per woman today

現在每名婦女 平均要生 2.1 個孩子，

just so we have enough people to replace the previous generation.

A lot of you thought overpopulation was going to be a problem in 100 years --

很多人認為百年內 人口過剩將會成為問題——

對啦，問題也可能會是人口不足。

what happens if that number dips below 2.1?

隨著我們所有人變老、活得更久，

there's going to be a shrinking younger population,

which is going to lead to rising labor shortages

將導致世界最大經濟體的 勞動力短缺問題日益嚴重。

我說的是美國、中國、日本、德國。

I'm talking about United States, China, Japan, Germany.

年輕勞動力的減少意味著稅收減少。

Fewer younger working people means less tax revenue.

稅收減少意味著更少的資金和資源

Less tax revenue means less money and resources

用在我們人人依賴的安全網上。

to go to safety net programs that all of us are going to depend upon.

I'm talking about pensions and health care.

那似乎與每一個世代都息息相關。

It seems every generation is indeed connected.

但首先到底為什麼 我們會淪落到這步田地？

But how the heck did we get here in the first place?

讓我們把迪羅倫時光汽車 開回到昔時單純的年代。

Let's take the DeLorean to simpler times.

停在迪斯可沒落 和 《星戰五部曲：帝國大反擊》間，

Somewhere between the death of disco and "Empire Strikes Back" -- 1980.

In 1980, China decided to implement the one-child policy,

中國在 1980 年決定 實施一胎化政策，

largely limiting most parents to having just one kid

大規模限制多數父母 只能夠生一個孩子，

Check out some good old-fashioned Chinese propaganda, lovely.

看這些可愛、老式的中國宣傳。

Even after ending its one-child policy in 2015,

即使一胎化政策 已在 2015 年鬆綁了，

China's birth rates have largely declined.

事實上，中國的人口下降正消泯

is removing one of its biggest drivers of growth -- people.

China's population is actually going to peak in 2029,

中國的人口將在 2029 年達到頂峰，

China's government is so freaked out right now

然後陷入「無法阻擋的衰退」。

that it's actually doing new propaganda --

it's begging couples to have children for the country.

Let's take the DeLorean and hop over to Japan,

home of my beloved Honda Odyssey minivan.

讓我們乘坐迪羅倫時光汽車跳到日本，

我心愛的本田奧德賽休旅車的故鄉。

Japan is now producing more adult diapers than infant ones.

The number of kids in Japan has fallen for the 37th straight year.

日本現在生產的成人紙尿褲 比嬰兒尿布還多。

日本的孩子人口連續減少 37 年。

it has not been able to replace its population numbers

字幕列表影片播放

【TED】瓦賈哈特-阿里：生孩子的理由（生孩子的理由｜瓦賈哈特-阿里）。 (【TED】Wajahat Ali: The case for having kids (The case for having kids | Wajahat Ali))

present

revenue

audience

applause