Verdicts and judgments on her period in office are going to be flooding in over the next few days.

接下來幾天會大量湧入梅伊任期內的評論與批判。

It's certainly the case that she was set an impossible problem with delivering Brexit.

要完成脫歐程序確實是一件艱鉅的任務。

But she made that problem immeasurably harder for herself by her failure to communicate her own strategy for doing so.

但因梅伊未能說服國會自己的脫歐策略，讓這項任務幾乎變得不可能。

"Brexit means Brexit, and we're going to make a success of it."

「會脫歐就是會脫歐，我們一定會成功地完成這件事。」

She started off as an imperious figure going out to bat for Britain, and get a great deal, and show strength rather than weakness.

她先是以傲慢的姿態代表英國協商，希望能達成全面性的脫歐協議，並在國際展現出其優勢而非劣勢。

She ended up arguing for compromise.

但最後她卻不斷地向歐盟妥協。

And If you're going to do that you have to start off arguing for compromise, not get there at the end.

而若要這麼做，她一開始就應該要妥協，而非事發至今才讓步。

"In order to get the best deal for Britain we need to ensure we've got that strong and stable leadership."

「為了國家與歐盟達成最完善的脫歐協議，我們必須確保領導層態度堅決、立場穩定。」

In the end she's been let down by her shortcomings as a political tactician and a political operator, as much as by the complexity of the situation that she faced.

最後她的政治策略和政治操作成了弱點，一同她所面對的複雜議題，無法達成共識。

Her game plan was to deliver Brexit, to get a deal with the European Union, and to keep the Conservative party together at the same time.

她的策略是同時完成脫歐、和歐盟達成協議，並設法留住保守黨。

And these three things were very, very hard to reconcile.

然而這三件事十分難達成協調。

So what comes next?

所以接下來呢？

Well there's going to be a Conservative party leadership election.

接下來將有一場保守黨黨魁選戰。

It's going to start the week of June the 10th.

將於 6 月 10 日當週開始。

It'll be whittled down to a shortlist of two by MPs over the course of that week, and then Conservative party members will choose the successor.

當週從保守黨黨員中縮減至兩位黨員列入候選名單，而保守黨黨員便將選出接任黨魁。

"Do you think you're too divisive a character to be Tory leader?"

「你覺得自己要成為保守黨主席是否過於有爭議性？」

The front-runner to succeed her will certainly be Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary and leading figure in the Leave campaign.

最有可能接任首相一職的人絕對是 Boris Johnson，他是前外交大臣以及脫歐派領袖人物。

But the Conservative party has a track record of not picking its front-runners, and this is going to be a very, very large field.

但按照保守黨的先前紀錄，領先者最後往往不會當選黨魁，況且這次黨內選舉的戰況將非常激烈。

So you certainly can't take it for granted that he's going to emerge as the winner in the end.

所以你絕對無法保證他將成為最後贏家。

So where does this actually leave the issue of Brexit, the issue that has fundamentally brought down Theresa May?

那麼擊垮梅伊的脫歐爭議，進展得如何呢？

The obvious immediate conclusion is that it makes a no-deal exit more likely, but that's not the same as making it definite.

最明顯、最直接的結論是，這提高了無協議脫歐的可能性，但這並不代表其肯定性。

None of the candidates are actually going to advocate a no-deal Brexit.

沒有一位候選人會主張無協議脫歐。

But what they will say is that they are prepared to see a no-deal Brexit if they can't get the right deal for Britain.

但他們會說，若無法替英國爭取到最佳協議，他們已替無協議脫歐做足準備。

And in particular, that means junking the hated Northern Ireland backstop designed to create a frictionless border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

尤其是放棄使用備受爭議的邊境保障措施，也就是愛爾蘭與北愛爾蘭之間不會出現「硬邊界」。

The fundamental problem with going down that path remains the hostility of the House of Commons, which does not want to see a no-deal Brexit.

而實施邊境保障措施的根本問題仍出自下議院的反對，他們不會任由無協議脫歐的狀況發生。

It is true that constitutionally it's very hard to stop a prime minister set on doing this.

的確，憲法上我們無法阻止首相強硬脫歐協議的決心。

But there are ways, including a vote of confidence designed to bring down the government.

但仍有其他方式，包含對首相的信任投票，其策略為透過信任票拖垮整個政府。

That would require some Conservatives being ready to bring down their party in order to prevent this.

若要這麼做，許多保守黨員將必須為拖垮整個黨派做準備。

But there are a handful who might be prepared to do that.

而事實是，少數黨員確實已為此做足準備。

And the Conservatives will know that a general election at this time is not a welcome prospect.

他們會知道，這時候舉辦英國大選並非好時機。

They will all be very scared of it.

他們將對此感到害怕。

And none of them will want to elect a leader who's going to plunge them into a general election very soon.

而他們不會有人想選出一位很快又被投下不信任票的黨魁。

Especially after what we expect to be catastrophic European parliamentary elections.

尤其在歐洲議會選舉過後，保守黨如預期地重挫。

We get the results Sunday night and Monday morning.

我們在週日晚間與週一早上得知選舉結果。

They're almost certain to be the worst results the Conservative party have ever had in any election ever.

幾乎能肯定的是，此為保守黨在所有選舉中有史以來最差的表現。

"It will be for my successor to seek a way forward that honours the result of the referendum."

「我的繼任者將要找出更進一步的方法以落實公投結果。」

"To succeed, he or she will have to find consensus in parliament, where I have not."

「若要成功，他必須在議會中試圖達到我未能達成的共識。」

"Such a consensus can only be reached if those on all sides of the debate are willing to compromise."

「如此共識，唯有在所有辯論各方都願意妥協之下，才能達成。」

The most interesting part of Theresa May's resignation speech in Downing Street was where she said:

最值得一提的是，梅伊在唐寧街的辭職演說中提到：

That the next leader is going to have to proceed in the spirit of compromise.

下一位繼任者若要繼續脫歐程序，必須願意妥協。

They're going to have to find a compromise.

各方必須各退一步。

And that was very interesting because the party clearly is in no mood to compromise over Brexit.

這十分值得注意，因為很明顯地，保守黨毫無意願在脫歐協議中讓步。

The leader may have changed but the parliamentary arithmetic and the problems have not.

或許首相換了，但國會的政治計算與當前的問題並沒有改變。