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Theresa May has set a date for her departure as prime minister.
英國首相梅伊已確定卸任日期。
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Verdicts and judgments on her period in office are going to be flooding in over the next few days.
接下來幾天會大量湧入梅伊任期內的評論與批判。
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It's certainly the case that she was set an impossible problem with delivering Brexit.
要完成脫歐程序確實是一件艱鉅的任務。
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But she made that problem immeasurably harder for herself by her failure to communicate her own strategy for doing so.
但因梅伊未能說服國會自己的脫歐策略,讓這項任務幾乎變得不可能。
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"Brexit means Brexit, and we're going to make a success of it."
「會脫歐就是會脫歐,我們一定會成功地完成這件事。」
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She started off as an imperious figure going out to bat for Britain, and get a great deal, and show strength rather than weakness.
她先是以傲慢的姿態代表英國協商,希望能達成全面性的脫歐協議,並在國際展現出其優勢而非劣勢。
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She ended up arguing for compromise.
但最後她卻不斷地向歐盟妥協。
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And If you're going to do that you have to start off arguing for compromise, not get there at the end.
而若要這麼做,她一開始就應該要妥協,而非事發至今才讓步。
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"In order to get the best deal for Britain we need to ensure we've got that strong and stable leadership."
「為了國家與歐盟達成最完善的脫歐協議,我們必須確保領導層態度堅決、立場穩定。」
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In the end she's been let down by her shortcomings as a political tactician and a political operator, as much as by the complexity of the situation that she faced.
最後她的政治策略和政治操作成了弱點,一同她所面對的複雜議題,無法達成共識。
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Her game plan was to deliver Brexit, to get a deal with the European Union, and to keep the Conservative party together at the same time.
她的策略是同時完成脫歐、和歐盟達成協議,並設法留住保守黨。
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And these three things were very, very hard to reconcile.
然而這三件事十分難達成協調。
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So what comes next?
所以接下來呢?
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Well there's going to be a Conservative party leadership election.
接下來將有一場保守黨黨魁選戰。
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It's going to start the week of June the 10th.
將於 6 月 10 日當週開始。
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It'll be whittled down to a shortlist of two by MPs over the course of that week, and then Conservative party members will choose the successor.
當週從保守黨黨員中縮減至兩位黨員列入候選名單,而保守黨黨員便將選出接任黨魁。
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"Do you think you're too divisive a character to be Tory leader?"
「你覺得自己要成為保守黨主席是否過於有爭議性?」
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The front-runner to succeed her will certainly be Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary and leading figure in the Leave campaign.
最有可能接任首相一職的人絕對是 Boris Johnson,他是前外交大臣以及脫歐派領袖人物。
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But the Conservative party has a track record of not picking its front-runners, and this is going to be a very, very large field.
但按照保守黨的先前紀錄,領先者最後往往不會當選黨魁,況且這次黨內選舉的戰況將非常激烈。
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So you certainly can't take it for granted that he's going to emerge as the winner in the end.
所以你絕對無法保證他將成為最後贏家。
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So where does this actually leave the issue of Brexit, the issue that has fundamentally brought down Theresa May?
那麼擊垮梅伊的脫歐爭議,進展得如何呢?
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The obvious immediate conclusion is that it makes a no-deal exit more likely, but that's not the same as making it definite.
最明顯、最直接的結論是,這提高了無協議脫歐的可能性,但這並不代表其肯定性。
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None of the candidates are actually going to advocate a no-deal Brexit.
沒有一位候選人會主張無協議脫歐。
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But what they will say is that they are prepared to see a no-deal Brexit if they can't get the right deal for Britain.
但他們會說,若無法替英國爭取到最佳協議,他們已替無協議脫歐做足準備。
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And in particular, that means junking the hated Northern Ireland backstop designed to create a frictionless border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
尤其是放棄使用備受爭議的邊境保障措施,也就是愛爾蘭與北愛爾蘭之間不會出現「硬邊界」。
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The fundamental problem with going down that path remains the hostility of the House of Commons, which does not want to see a no-deal Brexit.
而實施邊境保障措施的根本問題仍出自下議院的反對,他們不會任由無協議脫歐的狀況發生。
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It is true that constitutionally it's very hard to stop a prime minister set on doing this.
的確,憲法上我們無法阻止首相強硬脫歐協議的決心。
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But there are ways, including a vote of confidence designed to bring down the government.
但仍有其他方式,包含對首相的信任投票,其策略為透過信任票拖垮整個政府。
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That would require some Conservatives being ready to bring down their party in order to prevent this.
若要這麼做,許多保守黨員將必須為拖垮整個黨派做準備。
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But there are a handful who might be prepared to do that.
而事實是,少數黨員確實已為此做足準備。
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And the Conservatives will know that a general election at this time is not a welcome prospect.
他們會知道,這時候舉辦英國大選並非好時機。
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They will all be very scared of it.
他們將對此感到害怕。
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And none of them will want to elect a leader who's going to plunge them into a general election very soon.
而他們不會有人想選出一位很快又被投下不信任票的黨魁。
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Especially after what we expect to be catastrophic European parliamentary elections.
尤其在歐洲議會選舉過後,保守黨如預期地重挫。
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We get the results Sunday night and Monday morning.
我們在週日晚間與週一早上得知選舉結果。
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They're almost certain to be the worst results the Conservative party have ever had in any election ever.
幾乎能肯定的是,此為保守黨在所有選舉中有史以來最差的表現。
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"It will be for my successor to seek a way forward that honours the result of the referendum."
「我的繼任者將要找出更進一步的方法以落實公投結果。」
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"To succeed, he or she will have to find consensus in parliament, where I have not."
「若要成功,他必須在議會中試圖達到我未能達成的共識。」
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"Such a consensus can only be reached if those on all sides of the debate are willing to compromise."
「如此共識,唯有在所有辯論各方都願意妥協之下,才能達成。」
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The most interesting part of Theresa May's resignation speech in Downing Street was where she said:
最值得一提的是,梅伊在唐寧街的辭職演說中提到:
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That the next leader is going to have to proceed in the spirit of compromise.
下一位繼任者若要繼續脫歐程序,必須願意妥協。
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They're going to have to find a compromise.
各方必須各退一步。
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And that was very interesting because the party clearly is in no mood to compromise over Brexit.
這十分值得注意,因為很明顯地,保守黨毫無意願在脫歐協議中讓步。
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The leader may have changed but the parliamentary arithmetic and the problems have not.
或許首相換了,但國會的政治計算與當前的問題並沒有改變。