It's been 45 years since China and Australia established diplomatic relations.

中國和澳洲建交已經有45年的歷史

Since then, things

從那時起，很多事物都改變了

have changed a lot.

中共在1949年建國

Throughout all these years, both countries have maintained one the most fruitful, controversial

它發起了口號:中國人民站起來

and interesting relationships in the entire planet.

它是獨立口號，代表著中共的團結與自豪

A relationship based on stories about money, spies, accusations, infidelities and many,

所以我們也說:澳大利亞人們站起來

but many conflicting interests.

這些年以來，中澳兩國開始了堅定，卻也頗具爭議的關係

Because, in all honesty, if we were talking about a relationship between two people instead

一段有關金錢，諜報，醜聞指控，背信

of two countries, we'd have a great script for a Latin American telenovela.

以及許多利益衝突的外交關係

But obviously, this is VISUALPOLITIK, so... to the point.

老實說，如果這邊討論的是兩個人的關係而非兩個國家

Today, China is this country's main commercial partner.

這樣的關係會是拉丁美洲肥皂劇的好劇本

Their purchases represent about a third of all Australian exports, 8 times more than

不過我們今天談的是政治，我們就單刀直入吧

exports to the US.

時至今日，中國是澳洲最大的貿易夥伴

See, in 2015 China and Australia signed a free trade agreement and today their trade

對中國的出口量占了近三分之一的總量

relations exceed 155 billion dollars per year.

將近是對美國的八倍

And not only that, China is also becoming an increasingly important investor in Australia,

中國和澳洲在2015年簽訂了自由貿易協定

a country where 1 in 20 people is Chinese; among them many millionaires who decided to

兩國的年貿易總和來到了1550億美金

find a safer place with more guarantees for their assets and lives.

不僅如此，中國也成為澳洲境內最重要的投資者

(Such is the scale of trade that financial markets have long been of the view that the

每20位澳洲公民就有一位是中國藉，其中多是億萬富翁

Australian dollar is one of the best proxies for bets on China itself.

目的是找一個提供財產和人身安全的地方

James Laurenceson, Deputy Director of the Australia-China Relations Institute, University

基於澳洲市場的規模，許多中國的市場及投資者將澳幣視為避險基金

of Technology, Sydney.)

00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:23,900 當然，事出必有因

Of course, this all has consequences.

我們也在之前的影片提到過

We already talked about it, here in VISUALPOLITIK.

澳洲已經突破紀錄，超過30年沒有任何國家危機

Australia has broken all records and has not known a crisis for almost 30 years.

聽起來很猛，是吧

Sounds amazing, right?

不過這樣的蓬勃發展和中國崛起有很大的關聯

Well, in all this success, the great Chinese takeoff had a lot to do.

這也是為什麼澳洲智庫Lowy Institute對澳洲公民

Therefore, it's easy to understand why when the Lowy Institute, an important Think Tank

發起了一項調查:中澳 或 美澳 關係，誰較重要?

in the country, asked Australians last year which relationship was more important to them,

結果是平手

the one with the United States or the one with China, it was a tie.

而美澳關係一直以來被認為較中澳堅定

Even when their relations with their North American friends are very close.

儘管如此，中澳關係在2017年卻不是那樣順遂

However, in spite of this romance, the fact is that 2017 was not a year of love for Australia

來看看前澳洲外交部長Bob Carr怎麼說

and China.

中澳的口水仗升級

Check out what Bob Carr, former minister for foreign affairs of Australia, said on the

澳洲首長的措辭是自六四天安門事件以來

subject:

前所未見的嚴厲

( “This year, Australia declared rhetorical war on China.

在美國盟友間的批評力道最重，甚至超越日本

The words being used by Australian leaders are the harshest any time since diplomatic

00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:32,239 如妳所見，2017對兩國來說都是艱困的一年

relations commenced in 1972, with the exception of comments at the time of the Tiananmen crackdown.

根據中共環球時報的調查

The tone is harsher than that of any other US ally, including Japan.”

對中國抱有最大敵意的國家是澳洲

Bob Carr.)

實際上，川普在白宮的發言似乎是有過之而不及

As you can see, 2017 was a very difficult year for both countries' relations.

我們不能再讓中共強暴我們的國家，必須阻止他們 這也是我們目前為止取得最大的成功

So much so that a survey by the Global Times, one of China's most popular newspapers,

所以坎培拉和北京之間的糾紛到底是什麼?

determined that Australia was the most hostile country to China in 2017.

我們一起來探討

And the truth is that, with Trump in the White House, those are big words.

00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:15,099 實際上，2017年初對雙方來說看起來是個好年

But what the hell happened?

經濟合作沒有放緩的趨勢

What has led to so much dissension between Canberra and Beijing?

同時川普展現了"卓越"的外交手腕，針對澳洲總理開砲

Well, let's see.

也降低了澳洲總理在區域的聲望

(THE STORM)

澳洲政府甚至公開支持中國取代美國

In fact, at first, 2017 seemed like it'd be a good year for Chinese in Australia:

成為誇太平洋夥伴關係協議的領頭羊

economic relations wouldn't stop growing;

從電視劇的角度來看，愛就是在一起

Trump, showing off his best diplomatic skills, hung up on the Australian Prime Minister Malcolm

好景不常，這樣的關係在年中惡化

Turnbull himself, further sinking his popularity in this area of the world;

而且不是普通地差

and the Australian government even publicly supported China replacing the United States

之前也有零星的衝突存在，不過都是芝麻小事

as a main member of the failed TPP, the Pacific free trade agreement.

近幾年來，澳洲政府一直試圖在中國和美國之間取得平衡

We could almost say that, in telenovela terms, love was about to succeed.

在經濟，澳洲仰賴北京政府 但在軍事方面仰賴美國

However, calm… didn't last long… and everything started to go wrong halfway through

00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:23,920 我們之前提到，共和黨將澳洲視為美國最重要的盟友

the year.

他們也應該如此

Really wrong.

澳洲是唯一一個參與了美國各大小戰爭的盟友

Yes... they'd had some clashes before, but nothing major.

這些年來，和美國的軍事交流是如此的密切，甚至成為美國在該區域的代言人

In recent years, the Australian government has followed a strategy that basically consisted

澳洲總理也親自表達他對美國的感激

in trying to balance their position between Beijing and Washington.

00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:50,420 太平洋區域的穩定仰賴於美國的領導地位

In economic matters... it was all Beijing, and in security and defense matters...

而這樣的領導地位出自其堅實的海軍實力

Washington, of course.

它的實力也體現在價值上

We already mentioned here, in VISUALPOLITIK, that Republicans consider Australia to US's

儘管歷史上風波不斷，但美國守護的核心價值從未改變:

best ally.

民主國家的自由，民主及公平的法律

As it should be:

00:06:07,370 --> 00:06:13,600 回到中國的角度，剛剛的發言是2017年6月2號所發表

Australia is the only country that intervened in every major US war, and for years their

那也是第一次澳洲總理發表如此親美的言論

military relations have been so tight that Australia has become the US's spearhead

也是給中國的一個警訊

in this area of the world.

在可預見的未來，中國會孤立那些反對它，或是和它有利益衝突的國家

The Australian Prime Minister himself has shown his great appreciation for the United

僅僅8天之內，媒體們就炸裂了

States:

媒體爭相報導同一篇故事

(“The peace and stability of our region has been enabled by consistent US global leadership.

澳洲的情報機構發出嚴重地警告

While that leadership would not have been possible without the hard power of fleets

中國政府試圖透過各種管道影響澳洲政權

and armies, its greatest potency has come from the values which it embodies.

手段包含了收買政府官員，記者，科學家，民調機構

Through all the twists and turns of history, the United States has stood for the values

和恐嚇在澳洲的中國公民

on which its great republic was founded: freedom, democracy and the rule of law”.

緊接著醜聞爆發

Malcolm Turnbull)

新聞開始報導澳洲大學，研究機構，政府官員

But... back to the Chinese matter… see, these words were pronounced on June 2, 2017.

和中國軍方的合作關係 其中包含了澳洲前貿易部長Andrew Robb

That was the first time that an Australian Prime Minister spoke so clearly in favor of

現在在中資控制下的公司工作

Washington in a speech, which was also full of warnings

利益交換達到了數百萬美元之多

to China.

當然，澳洲情報機構提防中國間諜也已經不是新聞

And then, just 8 days later... the media storm broke out.

許多政府機關將中資放進拒絕合作名單裡

Several media reported on a single story:

舉例來說，華微已經被澳洲的5G標案裡除名

The Australian Intelligence Agency was making very serious warnings about the Chinese government's

00:07:36,230 --> 00:07:40,930 這是因為澳洲害怕中國的滲透以及降低中資在澳洲的影響力

intentions to influence Australian politics through various means, including purchasing

儘管如此，雙方的衝突從未達到如此的高度

politicians, journalists and scientists; or the surveillance and intimidation of citizens

報導指出，中共政權正試圖

belonging to the Chinese community in Australia.

收買澳洲媒體，大學機構甚至是民意代表

The scandal was unleashed.

而這是現在進行式

Suddenly news started to emerge on the collaboration Australian universities and scientists with

2017年12月12號，工黨參議員Sam Dastyari

Chinese military contractors or former politicians, such as the former Trade Minister Andrew Robb,

澳洲的政治明星因為和中國政府掛鉤而被迫辭職

who now work for companies controlled by the Chinese government in exchange for juicy salaries

我在之前的聲明說過，我是一位愛國者

that amount to hundreds of thousands of dollars.

而那是我的真心話

And of course, the Australian security services' fear on Chinese espionage isn't new....

之所以辭職是為了這個國家及人民

Various Australian governments have been blocking Chinese corporate operations for years, and

除此之外它也被指控收賄以發表利中言論

have also banned companies such as Huawei from participating in deploying a national

甚至暗中通風報信給中國商人

broadband network.

而他正在接受情報機構的監控

This is all precisely because of a fear of espionage or excessive Chinese influence.

手機甚至被竊聽

However, despite everything, controversy and tension had never gone this far.

至於澳洲研究機構和中國軍方的合作

(“Media reports have suggested that the Chinese Communist Party has been working to

收買記者跟政客...等等的指控從6月就開始了

covertly interfere with our media, our universities and even the decisions of elected representatives

00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:55,580 澳洲政府公開譴責中國的行為，同時對間諜一案修法

right here in this building, in the Parliament . Malcolm Turnbull)

也包括叛國罪，移民政策及政治獻金

On December 12, 2017, Sam Dastyari, Labor Party Senator and one of the most promising

而這一切只是開端

political figures in the country, was forced to resign because of his ties to China.

中國政府對我國積極情蒐已是公開的秘密

Among other things, he was accused of receiving money in exchange for speeches that favored

中澳關係降到冰點也影響到澳洲對其它國家的外交政策

the Chinese government's interests and even of having alerted a Chinese businessman linked

00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:21,310 2017年美澳兩國的交流是前所未有的密切

to the Communist Party that he could be being investigated by the country's intelligence

00:09:22,310 --> 00:09:25,870 不過澳洲政府內部立場並非如此一致

agencies and that his phone could be tapped.

00:09:27,210 --> 00:09:31,020 當局似乎不瞭解中國與澳洲經濟間的重要性

Well, scientists collaborating with Chinese military contractors, university infiltration,

以及其中的伎倆

paying journalists, buying politicians... these accusations ran since the beginning

00:09:38,210 --> 00:09:40,990 澳洲前總理Paul Keating

of June...

你知道嗎

The Australian government denounced it publicly and began modifying its legislation on espionage,

在這樣的情況下，我認為關於對中立場的辯論

treason, immigration and on financing political parties... and this, my friends, looks like

澳洲政府的做法是可以理解的

it's just the beginning.

一方面來說，許多人認為中國影響澳洲的指控證據不足

The consequences of these cooling political relations can be seen, for example, in foreign

00:10:00,260 --> 00:10:04,980 有些人甚至認為這是由華府發起的行動

policy.

另一方面，和中國政府決裂的決定

For example, we can clearly say that in 2017, Australia has been favoring the US like never

對澳洲來說也很艱困

before.

你可能會問為什麼

But, don't think that this position has been unanimous among the political class,

看看以下影片

not at all…

中方說法

( “The government doesn't seem to understand the economic importance of the relationship

在整個政治風暴裡中國政府的立場相當強硬

with China or the strategic issues involved [...] “We are putting all of our faith in

它們否認了所有的指控

our relationship with China through the foreign policy lens of the US.”

中方甚至指控整起事件是針對種族和反中情結

Paul Keating, australian former prime minister)

這樣的情節促使澳洲人民敵視整個中國社群

And my friends, you know what?

00:10:43,910 --> 00:10:49,130 中國外交部警告在澳留學生注意人身安全

Given the circumstances, I think that this entire debate on the position Australia should

00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:54,490 這樣的公告看起來很浮誇

take before China is quite understandable:

事實上除了幾張貼在校園的反中宣傳單

On the one hand, many critics affirm that there isn't enough evidence of the Chinese

沒有任何證據顯示中國留學生安全堪慮

interference that the government denounces.

雖然外交部的公告太浮誇 不過這也點出一個事實

Some even say that this is all a political operation fed by Washington.

反中並非值得鼓勵的

On the other hand, “breaking” with China – or at least being this forceful with the

容我解釋一下

Beijing government – isn't exactly easy for Australia.

中國籍留學生佔了四成的澳洲留學生

Why?

同時他們每年在澳洲消費近180億元

Check it out.

00:11:22,890 --> 00:11:26,690 习近平也表達了:如果有必要

(CHINA DEFENDS ITSELF)

他們會對澳洲經濟施壓

Throughout this entire political crisis, China has been very strong:

這也是他們近期施加在南韓及台灣的手段

of course they have denied all accusations and have even said that this entire campaign

而我們不只提到留學生，遊客及投資者也是重要的一環

is based on racial prejudice and a clear anti-Chinese paranoia.

舉例來說，高消費市場在近年有爆炸性的成長

A paranoia they have claimed is turning into a clear hostility towards the Chinese community

為什麼?

itself:

00:11:52,190 --> 00:11:56,800 中國藉留學生，遊客及公民占了三分之二

(Chinese diplomats warn students in Australia to stay alert to safety risks after spate

雪梨及墨爾本的高價消費市場營收

of attacks” South China Morning Post.)

00:12:00,060 --> 00:12:01,560 再舉另一個例子

Yes, this type of messages may seem exaggerated, especially because the truth is that beyond

中國在澳洲的直接投資翻了數倍 不是10也不是20倍而是32倍

a few posters in some university or other, there seems to be no evidence of this acclaimed

在9年之內

danger...

00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:14,690 所以放緩對中國的交流影響是很大的

but, given that on the one hand this claim shows us how things are; on the other it is

同時傷害澳洲經濟甚深

a kind of warning, because, clearly, it isn't good publicity.

不過事情就是這樣運作的

Allow me to explain myself.

截至目前，澳洲與美國的合作關係更加密切

Chinese students account for 4 out of every 10 foreign students in Australian universities,

美國政府成功地鞏固了在太平洋區對它有利的盟友

and spend 18 billion dollars in the country every year.

00:12:32,470 --> 00:12:33,930 同時對美國的軍火工業

Yes, you heard that right.

近幾年澳洲成為他們最重要的顧客

It seems like Xi Jinping's government wants to make it very clear that it is willing,

同時在未來的十年之內澳洲計畫投入1000億元在國防上

if necessary, to play in economic terms as a pressure measure.

而美國軍火商在標案中具領先地位

Something that, by the way, they used recently with South Korea and Taiwan.

同時澳洲國內也有聲音

And we aren't only talking about students, but also about tourists or investors.

表示澳洲政府應保持中立和保衛國家安全

For example, in recent years the luxury sector has experienced a huge economic boom in Australia.

同時減少公開批評

Do you know why?

現在的問題是: 這件事會如何結束

Listen up:

中澳的外交關係會正常化嗎

(“Students, tourists and Chinese residents in Australia are responsible for up to two-thirds

只有時間能解決了

of all luxury retail sales in Sydney and Melbourne.”

輪到你了，你覺得未來澳洲政府走向應該為何?

South China Morning Post.)

留言中輸入答案

Want another example?

也在問卷中留下

China's direct investments in Australia have multiplied, not by 10 or by 20, but by 32

希望你們喜歡這部影片，同時別忘了按讚和訂閱

in just 9 years.

每周一及四發布新影片

By 32!

別忘了拜訪Reconsider Media Podcast

So, as you can see, slowing down this entire process could translate into a lot, and that

它們提供了音效

is a lot of pain for the Australian economy.

同時，謝謝收看

Anyway, my friends, that's the way things are.

So far, the Australian government remains faithful to its close relationship with Washington,

the United States seems to have secured an alliance that is essential for their interests

in this area of the world.

And for their military industry.

In recent years Australia became one of its best customers, and in the next decade, they

expect to spend more than 100 billion dollars renewing their Armed Forces, where American

contractors have an advantage

However, it isn't few, and by this I mean politicians, businessmen and citizens, who

ask Australia to remain neutral and protect its national security without having to make

so many public accusations.

How will this story end?

Will one of the most fruitful relationships in recent years be at risk?

Only time can tell.

But now it's your turn, where do you think Australian politics should turn?

Leave us your answer in the comments and in this survey.

Leave your answer in the comments as well as in the survey.

I really hope you enjoyed this video, please hit like if you did and don't forget to

subscribe to our channel for brand new videos every Monday and Thursday.

Also, don't forget to check out our friends at the Reconsider Media Podcast - they provided

the vocals in this episode that were not mine!

And as always, thanks for watching!