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  • Things are looking up for China.


  • The world's second-largest economy expanded by 6.4 percent in the first three months of the year.

    今年首季,中國這個世界最大的經濟體成長了百分之 6.4。

  • Just a little bit higher than economists' expectations of 6.3 percent.

    比經濟學者們預測的 6.3% 高出一點。

  • So what does this mean for China?


  • For one, it shows that concerns over a trade war with America are fading.


  • President Donald Trump backpedaled last month on vows to ramp up tariffs on Chinese goods.

    上個月 (2019 年 3 月) 川普總統誓言將採取報復手段,提高中國貨物關稅。

  • And the two countries are aiming to wrap up talks within a month.


  • On the domestic front, the rosy gross domestic product numbers demonstrate that a stimulus plan is kicking into gear.

    至於中國內部情況,從樂觀的 GDP 數字便可看出景氣刺激措施確實生效。

  • China usually waits until March to allocate local government bond quotas.


  • This year, Beijing made sure that local governments were raising debt as early as January, in order to spend on infrastructure projects.


  • To show they're serious about spending, local leaders raised Rmb 1.2 trillion.

    為了展現大興土木的決心,地方政府領袖籌到 1.2 兆人民幣。

  • That's about $179 billion in the first quarter.

    也就是在第一季籌到約 1790 億美元。

  • In the same period in 2017 and 2018, they didn't raise anything.

    在 2017、2018 年同一季,中國政府並沒有籌措任何資金。

  • There's also a Rmb 2 trillion tax cut coming down the line.

    接下來還有 2 兆人民幣的減稅措施。

  • Economists are mixed on whether the taxes will have a meaningful impact this year.


  • Are there risks?


  • Absolutely.


  • The biggest is an unwanted surprise on trade talks with the US.


  • A bad deal, or no deal for China,


  • Economists aren't too worried about the Chinese property sector, one of the biggest contributors to GDP growth.

    經濟學者並不擔心中國房產市場—對 GDP 成長貢獻最多的其中一個產業。

  • Property sales have been rising, and so are prices, according to a recent survey.


  • But there are some signs of a slowdown in construction.


  • Land sales were down in the first three months of 2019.

    2019 第一季中土地銷售下降。

  • That means developers aren't buying as much, and probably won't build as much this year.


  • Any sharp, unexpected correction in the market would be devastating for growth in China.


  • There's also a chance the stimulus could get the better of China.


  • If the trade deal with the US delivers a positive result next month, Beijing will probably need to tone down the spending in order to avoid excess debt growth.

    倘若 4 月能與美方達成有利的協議,北京或許將縮減支出以避免進一步過度舉債。

Things are looking up for China.



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