The world's second-largest economy expanded by 6.4 percent in the first three months of the year.

今年首季，中國這個世界最大的經濟體成長了百分之 6.4。

Just a little bit higher than economists' expectations of 6.3 percent.

比經濟學者們預測的 6.3% 高出一點。

So what does this mean for China?

這對中國意味著什麼呢？

For one, it shows that concerns over a trade war with America are fading.

一方面這顯示中美貿易戰的疑慮正在消退。

President Donald Trump backpedaled last month on vows to ramp up tariffs on Chinese goods.

上個月 (2019 年 3 月) 川普總統誓言將採取報復手段，提高中國貨物關稅。

And the two countries are aiming to wrap up talks within a month.

而雙方希望在一個月內讓談判告一段落。

On the domestic front, the rosy gross domestic product numbers demonstrate that a stimulus plan is kicking into gear.

至於中國內部情況，從樂觀的 GDP 數字便可看出景氣刺激措施確實生效。

China usually waits until March to allocate local government bond quotas.

中國通常會觀望到三月再釋出地方政府債券配額。

This year, Beijing made sure that local governments were raising debt as early as January, in order to spend on infrastructure projects.

反觀今年北京政府在一月就先向地方政府確認債券發行，來為基礎設施計畫籌措資金。

To show they're serious about spending, local leaders raised Rmb 1.2 trillion.

為了展現大興土木的決心，地方政府領袖籌到 1.2 兆人民幣。

That's about $179 billion in the first quarter.

也就是在第一季籌到約 1790 億美元。

In the same period in 2017 and 2018, they didn't raise anything.

在 2017、2018 年同一季，中國政府並沒有籌措任何資金。

There's also a Rmb 2 trillion tax cut coming down the line.

接下來還有 2 兆人民幣的減稅措施。

Economists are mixed on whether the taxes will have a meaningful impact this year.

究竟稅法是否會在今年造成顯著影響，經濟學家看法不一。

Are there risks?

有什麼風險存在嗎？

Absolutely.

無庸置疑。

The biggest is an unwanted surprise on trade talks with the US.

最大的風險在於中美貿易談判可能出現某種不受歡迎的驚喜。

A bad deal, or no deal for China,

不利於中國的協議，甚或談判破局，都可能擊潰投資人信心及出口商；而這兩者都是中國的經濟骨幹。

Economists aren't too worried about the Chinese property sector, one of the biggest contributors to GDP growth.

經濟學者並不擔心中國房產市場—對 GDP 成長貢獻最多的其中一個產業。

Property sales have been rising, and so are prices, according to a recent survey.

根據最近一項調查顯示，房產銷售額與價格持續上升。

But there are some signs of a slowdown in construction.

然而營造業卻出現一些成長放緩的跡象。

Land sales were down in the first three months of 2019.

2019 第一季中土地銷售下降。

That means developers aren't buying as much, and probably won't build as much this year.

這意味著開發商之購買數量不如以往，今年的建案也可能減少。

Any sharp, unexpected correction in the market would be devastating for growth in China.

一旦市場出現劇烈、意外的修正情形，都會嚴重衝擊中國經濟成長。

There's also a chance the stimulus could get the better of China.

此外經濟刺激措施也可能反過來對中國造成傷害。

If the trade deal with the US delivers a positive result next month, Beijing will probably need to tone down the spending in order to avoid excess debt growth.

倘若 4 月能與美方達成有利的協議，北京或許將縮減支出以避免進一步過度舉債。