one of fiction's most popular characters,

相當著名的小說角色人物，

having been portrayed by over 200 actors

由超過 200 位演員在螢光幕前

on the screen over the years

詮釋著這著角色好多年，

and having served as the inspiration for other characters

同時也貢獻了靈感給其他角色

such as Batman and Adrian Monk.

像是 Batman 與 Adrian Monk。

And it's no wonder why we're so fascinated with him.

難怪我們都被這個角色深深地吸引。

Yes, his stories contain lots of mystery and adventure,

是的，他的故事蘊藏許多神秘與冒險，

but he's also a character who can make logical deductions from the most scant evidence,

但他也是能夠從較少的證據做出邏輯性推理的人

and we find that inherently fascinating.

我們都覺得那是很迷人的。

We find characters who are hyper-intelligent to be really interesting.

我們發現到高智商的角色人物都是相當有趣的。

And what's better about Sherlock Holmes,

那夏洛克·福爾摩斯的好在哪裡，

he's not superhuman, he is human.

他不是超人，他是一般人。

Which leads me to the point of this video,

這也是讓我想做這部影片的原因，

because if you're anything like me,

如果你跟我一樣，

you've probably gone beyond simple fascination with the character at one point or another

你可能因為夏洛克·福爾摩斯的一兩個特點就會非常地著迷，

and thought to yourself, how can I think like Sherlock Holmes?

便會思考，我要如何有夏洛克·福爾摩斯的思考術？

You know, without all the sociopathic tendencies

你知道的，沒有社交傾向

and the substance abuses, just the good parts.

沒有濫用藥物，只有好的部分。

Well that is what I want to explore in this video,

這正是我要在這部影片裡探索的，

and by the end of it you're going to understand three of the core mental strategies

在片尾你會了解到三個核心心裡策略

that Holmes brought to his cases,

是福爾摩斯在案件所用到的，

deep observation, skepticism, and probabilistic thinking.

深度觀察、懷疑論、概率思维。

(urban music)

(都市音樂)

The first strategy on my list

我清單上的的第一個策略

is also probably the most famous one;

也是最著名之一的

Holmes is a keen observer of his environment.

福爾摩斯是一位熱愛觀察周遭環境的人。

He doesn't just casually see or perceive his environment

他不是像我們一般人一樣，隨興地看看

like the rest of us; he observes it with scrutiny,

他是很認真仔細地觀察周遭的人、事、物，

taking it all in and storing away details

全部吸收內化，將別人可能完全會漏掉或是忘記的細節

that other people may miss it entirely or forget it quickly.

都給牢牢地記住。

This well trained power of observation

這訓練有素的觀察力

allows him to tie together all those small details

可以使他將所有小細節都串連在一起，

in order to make conclusions.

得以做出各種結論。

And this is a skill that's useful

這是個很有用的技能，

not just in detective work, but in almost any field.

不只適用於偵探，也適用於各領域。

So here's how you can build this skill for yourself.

所以這裡會教你如何習得這項技能。

First, be an active participant

首先，當個活躍的參與者，

in whatever's going on in your life.

用心體會日常生活所中所生的事情。

Try to be as present-minded as you can.

盡可能的體會當下事務。

When you're having a conversation with somebody else,

當你與別人在對話時，

try to listen actively.

試著仔細聆聽。

Try to formulate questions in your head

在腦海裡試想些問題

to dig into what they're saying.

深入探究對方所說的。

And when you're traveling around

當你四處遊玩時

or going about your business, don't be staring at your phone

或是出差時，別盯著你的手機

or otherwise dividing up your attention.

它會分散你的注意力。

Try to be present minded and observe your environment.

試著用心體會與觀察當下環境。

Like many other cognitive skills,

像是其他的認知技能，

observation is a habit that can be strengthened over time.

觀察力是可以隨著時間來提升的一個習慣。

The author W.I.B. Beveridge puts it really well

W.I.B. Beveridge 作者在他的『科學之路』

in his book The Art of Scientific Investigation:

這本書中講得非常清楚。

Training in observation follows the same principles as training in any activity。

「觀察力的訓練跟其他的訓練是採用一樣的原則

"At first, one must do things consciously and laboriously,

「首先，一個人做事必須要有意識又紮實地做，

but with practice the activities gradually become automatic

實際操作與練習後，慢慢的會變成自然且無意識的行為，

and unconscious, and a habit is established."

也就養成了這個習慣。」

Right now, most of us aren't very well trained in the art of observation.

目前，多數的我們對於觀察力的修行都沒有到位。

We divide up our attention; we multitask.

我們分散注意力，一心多用。

So again, if you want to get better at this,

如果你想要精進這項技能，

be as present-minded as you can.

試著用心體會當下。

And to get specific, I do want to give you

在更清楚一點，我想要讓你從這部影片

one little challenge to take away from this video.

學到一個挑戰。

Next time you sit down to eat,

下次你坐下吃飯時，

next time you sit down at a table,

或是坐在餐桌時，

don't take out your phone at all.

把手機收好，別拿出來。

Not only will this force you to be

這不只會迫使你更專注當下，

present-minded and not dividing your attention

不會被你的手機或是坐在對面的人

with your phone and whoever's at the table,

分散掉你的注意力，

but it'll also force you to make conversation

但它會迫使你要跟對方聊天

so that you'll be building your social skills as well.

所以你也會增加你的社交技能。

Now, aside from mindfulness, there's one other

除了正念以外，培養觀察力

critical piece to building those observational skills,

還有一個很重要的部分，

and that's to gain experience in whatever field that you want be

就是在你想要大顯身手的領域裡

really perceptive and observational in.

從中獲得經驗。

Experts naturally pick out details

專家會在不同情況和不同環境

that are relevant to them in situations and environments

記取跟他們有相關的細節，

that the average person just isn't going to see.

一般人則是會沒看到。

Think about how a,

想想看要如何⋯

actually I can't say this word, what is it?

其實我不知道這個字怎麼說，這是什麼啊？

Traceur.

跑酷。

Yeah that, somebody who practices the art of parkour

在練習跑酷的人

would look at the average urban environment

所注意到都市的環境，相較於一般的路人

versus how a normal pedestrian would look at it.

還要來得面面俱到。

While you and I would just see

當你跟我只看到

roads and sidewalks and buildings and other people,

馬路、人行道、建築物、其他人，

somebody who's an expert in parkour

在練習跑酷的人

is going to see a lot more, naturally.

自然會看到更多。

They're going to see the most efficient way

他們會看得很有效率，

to get from Point A to Point B,

從 A 點到 B 點，

whether it's ducking under a railing

無論是躲避欄杆

or vaulting over something, climbing up a wall.

跳過某個障礙、翻過一面牆等。

And you and I are just not going to see that.

你跟我都沒看到。

Now, this tip is pretty related

這秘訣跟夏洛克·福爾摩斯強調的

to another quality that Sherlock Holmes emphasizes a lot,

另一個特質有許多關聯性，

a background knowledge across many different fields

跨及不同領域的背景知識

that's both deep, and most importantly,

是非常地深遠也是最重要的，

according to Holmes himself, well curated.

根據福爾摩斯本人，精心策畫的。

This is a concept that Holmes calls the "brain-attic,"

這是福爾摩斯的閣樓理論概念

and here's how he describes it in A Study in Scarlet:

這是他在這本 A Study in Scarlet 書中所敘述的：

"I consider that a man's brain

「我覺得人的腦袋

originally is like a little, empty attic,

原先是個小小的空閣樓，

and you have to stock it with such furniture as you choose.

你得要存放你所選的傢俱。

A fool takes in all lumber of every sort that he comes across,

愚蠢的人會把看到且用不到東西都堆進去，

so that the knowledge which might be useful to him gets crowded out,

所以對他有用的知識會被擠掉，

or at best is jumbled up with a lot of other things,

或是與很多東西混在一起，

so that he has difficulty in laying his hands upon it.

要著手找東西時就會有困難。

Now, the skillful workman is very careful indeed

老練的人當然會比較注意

as to what he takes into his brain-attic."

所放進去腦閣樓的東西。」

Now, I don't think you need to be paranoid about taking in the wrong things,

對放錯東西也不用感到恐慌，

as the brain is pretty elastic

因為腦袋是很有彈性的，

and you're really not going to "fill it up" as such.

也不用做到像老練的人這樣子。

But you do want to make sure that you're focusing

但你會想確定你大部分的時間

on the most important things for the majority of your time.

都是專注在最重要的事情上。

Most of us have that one person in our life

我們生活周遭都會有一種人

that's a master of useless trivia,

精通於一些沒用的瑣事，

but hasn't really put a whole lot of time

但沒有把所有的時間

into developing a useful skill.

放在培養技巧上。

Don't be that person.

別成為這樣的人。

Put the majority of your time and energy and focus

把你多數的時間與精力專注在

into gaining useful information.

獲得有用的資訊上。

And when you do, learn actively;

當你在執行時，要積極一點，

take notes, summarize what you learn,

作筆記，總結出你做學的，

and try to put it into practice as soon as you can.

可以的話，便把它運用在練習上。

Additionally, you want to be exploring

此外，你會想要探索

lots of other subjects that are somehow related to your main subject.

更多與主題相關的東西。

Doing this will form lots of additional neural connections

這樣操作下來會形成而外的神經連結，

and build a really deep web of information in your brain.

在腦在裡也會建造更深的資訊網。

And memories that have lots of different connections

記憶有許多不同連結，

are both more likely to be retrieved

這些都很有可能會被截取，

and more likely to be combined with the problem at hand

很有可能跟當前的問題結合，

to come up with a creative solution.

蹦出創新的解決辦法。

As the famous investor and partner of Warren Buffet Charlie Munger said,

有位著名的投資人與華倫·巴菲特的夥伴說過：

"The first rule is that you can't really know anything

「規則一，你無法知道所有的事情，

if you just remember isolated facts"and try and bang them back.

如果你只是記得獨立要素，要去試著回想這些要素。

If the facts don't hang together on a lattice-work of theory,

如果這些要素沒有像格子理論一樣，有邏輯性勾在一起，

you don't have them in a usable form."

這些資訊將無法使用。」

(urban music)

(都市音樂)

The second mental strategy of Sherlock Holmes

夏洛克·福爾摩斯第二個心智策略

that we're going to cover today is skepticism.

我們今天會講的是懷疑論。

The Athenian playwright Euripides once wrote that

雅典劇作家 Euripides 曾經寫道：

"Man's most valuable trait is a judicious sense of what not to believe."

「人最有價值的特徵是知道什麼不該去相信的判斷力。」

And Sherlock Holmes brings a natural skepticism

夏洛克·福爾摩斯在每個遇到的案件中

to every case that he faces.

都會自然地使用到懷疑論。

He listens to his clients or observes the details

他會用有深度與科學角度來傾聽他的客戶，

of a case or a crime scene deeply and scientifically,

來觀察一件案子或是一個犯罪現場的細節

but he also compares what he's seen and observed

但他也會把他所看到的，所觀察到的

to his current model of reality and all of his background knowledge.

跟他的現實狀況以及背景知識來做比較。

But on the other hand, as studies have found,

另一方面，研究指出

most of us can't help but instinctively believe what we hear right when we hear it,

我們多數都無法克制，讓自己直覺地去相信我們所聽到的東西，

especially if we're put in stressful situations or we're put under time pressure.

特別是在有壓力或是時間緊迫的情況下。

Not only that, but our brains also rely

不僅如此，我們的腦袋還依賴著

on lots of different little cognitive biases and heuristics, mental shortcuts

許多不同的認知偏誤、啟發法，心理捷徑，

that are very useful in many different situations,

這些在不同的情況下是非常有用的，

especially as the human species evolved,

特別是在人類演化後，

but that can also lead to incorrect decision-making and bad thinking.

但也有可能會引導至不正確的決定與壞思維。

For instance, we tend to weight

例如，我們傾向過度衡量

the information that is available to us much too heavily,

我們可獲得的資訊

that's called the availability heuristic.

那是所謂的可得性啟發。

We also tend to believe things

如果我們知道大多數的人都相信這些事情，

if we know a lot of other people believe them,

我們也會傾向去相信它，

the bandwagon effect.

這就是從眾效應。

And we also rely heavily on stereotypes.

我們會過度依賴刻板印象。

In fact, a recent study in The Journal of Criminology,

事實上，犯罪學期刊近期的研究

which I think Holmes probably would have read,

如果福爾摩斯還在的話可能也會閱讀，

found that certain physical traits are correlated with sentencing decisions.

發現到特定的物理特徵與判決決定有相關性。

This being despite the fact that logically,

儘管事實要符合邏輯，

we all know that our physical appearance

我們都知道外表特徵

has nothing to do with whether or not we committed a crime.

跟犯罪行為是沒有直接關係的，

And that isn't even the half of it.

連邊都沾不上。

Environmental factors that you wouldn't expect

你不以為然的環境因素

also have the ability to really influence our decision-making.

也有能力影響我們的決定。

For instance, prospective students

例如申請入學的學生，

that visit a college campus on a cloudy day

在陰天的時候拜訪大學校園，

are more likely to enroll in that college

會讀這所學校的機率

than if they did on a sunny day.

會大過於在晴天時候去拜訪。

And people who are affected by seasonal affective disorder

受季節性情緒失調的人

tend to make more risk-averse decisions with their money

在冬季時做的金錢風險規避決策

during the winter months than they do during the summer months.

比夏季時還要多。

Now with all these natural flaws in our thinking,

這與生俱來的思維缺陷，

how can we actually think objectively?

我們要如何客觀地去思考？

One powerful strategy comes from the author Maria Konnikova,

一位有強大策略的作者 Maria Konnikova

who wrote the book Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes,

寫了本書「策畫者‧如何有福爾摩斯的思考術」

which was, as you might guess,

這本書，你可能猜得到

one of the big inspirations for this video.

它是啟發這部影片的一個中的重要因素。

Her advice is to actively work

她建議要時時注意

on noticing what is priming your thoughts

是什麼在啟動你的思考

and influencing your decisions.

是什麼在影響你的決定。

As she states in the book, "A prime stops being a prime

像書中所提到的：「質數將不再是質素

"once we're aware of its existence.

一旦我們意識到它的存在。」

Bring any attention at all to the priming mechanism，

把專注力全都放在啟動機制，

and you'll likely find the effect go down to zero.

你就會發現其影響會降至最低。

When we're aware of the reason for our action,

當我們意識到行動的原因，

it stops influencing us."

它便停止影響我們。」

And as we'll add on to that piece of advice,

我們都添增一些新東西到她的建議裡

make sure that when you come to a conclusion,

確認下總結之前

you can point to the logical deduction

你可以指向有邏輯的推論

or the observable evidence that caused it.

或是可觀察的證據。

If you can't, then it's a good sign

如果沒辦法的話，就表示

that you're relying on one of those cognitive biases

你還是依賴著認知偏誤的模式，

and that you should probably work through the problem a little bit more deliberately again.

你得要再加把勁想通問題。

(urban music)

(都市音樂)

Finally, Sherlock Holmes' ability to make deductions and solve cases

最後講到概率思維，夏洛克·福爾摩斯的推論與破案的能力

hinges on his ability to think in terms of probabilities.

取決於他的思考能力。

What is most likely to happen?

最有可能發生的是什麼？

When Holmes is working on a case, he thinks

當福爾摩斯在處裡案件時，他思考得像

like a scientist, and he uses the scientific method,

位科學家，使用科學的方式

forming hypotheses as he goes along

在過程中做了很多假設

and testing them against new data as it's discovered.

便與新發現的資料做比較。

And since that data is almost never 100% conclusive,

因為資料曾未百分百正確，

he generates many different hypotheses,

他做了許多不同的假設，

and then he tries to figure out which one is the most likely candidate.

然後他試著想出哪一個假設是最有可能的。

Now, this probabilistic thinking is also called inductive reasoning.

這概率思維論也稱為歸納推理。

While deductive reasoning uses certainty and sound logic

演繹推理會使用肯定且符合邏輯的方式

to reach conclusions that are 100% true,

做出最正確結論。

inductive reasoning asks what is the mostly likely answer,

歸納推理則是會依據現有的事實

given the facts?

來尋求最有可能的答案是什麼？

And again, since most complex problems in life

再次提到，因為人生最複雜的問題

usually rely on incomplete information,

通常會依賴不完整的資訊，

you need to be able to use inductive reasoning

你得需要會使用歸納推理，

just as much as you need to be able to use deductive reasoning.

且使用的程度要跟演繹推理一樣。

Now if you want to see this probabilistic thinking in action

如果你想要看概率思維的實際操作，

one of the Holmes stories, "The Sign of Four," has a great example.

福爾摩斯的其中一本書『The Sign of Four』是個不錯的推薦。

It starts when Dr. Watson hands Holmes a pocket watch

故事開始是由一位 Watson 醫生遞給福爾摩斯一個懷錶

and asks what he can deduce from it.

便問他可以從中看出什麼端倪。

After looking the watch over for a few seconds,

看了懷錶幾秒後，

Holmes replies with quite a lot of information, actually.

福爾摩斯其實能回覆相當多的資訊。

That the watch was originally owned by Watson's father,

那懷錶之前是他父親所擁有的，