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  • Sherlock Holmes is undoubtedly

    夏洛克·福爾摩斯無庸置疑是位

  • one of fiction's most popular characters,

    相當著名的小說角色人物,

  • having been portrayed by over 200 actors

    由超過 200 位演員在螢光幕前

  • on the screen over the years

    詮釋著這著角色好多年,

  • and having served as the inspiration for other characters

    同時也貢獻了靈感給其他角色

  • such as Batman and Adrian Monk.

    像是 Batman 與 Adrian Monk。

  • And it's no wonder why we're so fascinated with him.

    難怪我們都被這個角色深深地吸引。

  • Yes, his stories contain lots of mystery and adventure,

    是的,他的故事蘊藏許多神秘與冒險,

  • but he's also a character who can make logical deductions from the most scant evidence,

    但他也是能夠從較少的證據做出邏輯性推理的人

  • and we find that inherently fascinating.

    我們都覺得那是很迷人的。

  • We find characters who are hyper-intelligent to be really interesting.

    我們發現到高智商的角色人物都是相當有趣的。

  • And what's better about Sherlock Holmes,

    那夏洛克·福爾摩斯的好在哪裡,

  • he's not superhuman, he is human.

    他不是超人,他是一般人。

  • Which leads me to the point of this video,

    這也是讓我想做這部影片的原因,

  • because if you're anything like me,

    如果你跟我一樣,

  • you've probably gone beyond simple fascination with the character at one point or another

    你可能因為夏洛克·福爾摩斯的一兩個特點就會非常地著迷,

  • and thought to yourself, how can I think like Sherlock Holmes?

    便會思考,我要如何有夏洛克·福爾摩斯的思考術?

  • You know, without all the sociopathic tendencies

    你知道的,沒有社交傾向

  • and the substance abuses, just the good parts.

    沒有濫用藥物,只有好的部分。

  • Well that is what I want to explore in this video,

    這正是我要在這部影片裡探索的,

  • and by the end of it you're going to understand three of the core mental strategies

    在片尾你會了解到三個核心心裡策略

  • that Holmes brought to his cases,

    是福爾摩斯在案件所用到的,

  • deep observation, skepticism, and probabilistic thinking.

    深度觀察、懷疑論、概率思维。

  • (urban music)

    (都市音樂)

  • The first strategy on my list

    我清單上的的第一個策略

  • is also probably the most famous one;

    也是最著名之一的

  • Holmes is a keen observer of his environment.

    福爾摩斯是一位熱愛觀察周遭環境的人。

  • He doesn't just casually see or perceive his environment

    他不是像我們一般人一樣,隨興地看看

  • like the rest of us; he observes it with scrutiny,

    他是很認真仔細地觀察周遭的人、事、物,

  • taking it all in and storing away details

    全部吸收內化,將別人可能完全會漏掉或是忘記的細節

  • that other people may miss it entirely or forget it quickly.

    都給牢牢地記住。

  • This well trained power of observation

    這訓練有素的觀察力

  • allows him to tie together all those small details

    可以使他將所有小細節都串連在一起,

  • in order to make conclusions.

    得以做出各種結論。

  • And this is a skill that's useful

    這是個很有用的技能,

  • not just in detective work, but in almost any field.

    不只適用於偵探,也適用於各領域。

  • So here's how you can build this skill for yourself.

    所以這裡會教你如何習得這項技能。

  • First, be an active participant

    首先,當個活躍的參與者,

  • in whatever's going on in your life.

    用心體會日常生活所中所生的事情。

  • Try to be as present-minded as you can.

    盡可能的體會當下事務。

  • When you're having a conversation with somebody else,

    當你與別人在對話時,

  • try to listen actively.

    試著仔細聆聽。

  • Try to formulate questions in your head

    在腦海裡試想些問題

  • to dig into what they're saying.

    深入探究對方所說的。

  • And when you're traveling around

    當你四處遊玩時

  • or going about your business, don't be staring at your phone

    或是出差時,別盯著你的手機

  • or otherwise dividing up your attention.

    它會分散你的注意力。

  • Try to be present minded and observe your environment.

    試著用心體會與觀察當下環境。

  • Like many other cognitive skills,

    像是其他的認知技能,

  • observation is a habit that can be strengthened over time.

    觀察力是可以隨著時間來提升的一個習慣。

  • The author W.I.B. Beveridge puts it really well

    W.I.B. Beveridge 作者在他的『科學之路』

  • in his book The Art of Scientific Investigation:

    這本書中講得非常清楚。

  • Training in observation follows the same principles as training in any activity

    「觀察力的訓練跟其他的訓練是採用一樣的原則

  • "At first, one must do things consciously and laboriously,

    「首先,一個人做事必須要有意識又紮實地做,

  • but with practice the activities gradually become automatic

    實際操作與練習後,慢慢的會變成自然且無意識的行為,

  • and unconscious, and a habit is established."

    也就養成了這個習慣。」

  • Right now, most of us aren't very well trained in the art of observation.

    目前,多數的我們對於觀察力的修行都沒有到位。

  • We divide up our attention; we multitask.

    我們分散注意力,一心多用。

  • So again, if you want to get better at this,

    如果你想要精進這項技能,

  • be as present-minded as you can.

    試著用心體會當下。

  • And to get specific, I do want to give you

    在更清楚一點,我想要讓你從這部影片

  • one little challenge to take away from this video.

    學到一個挑戰。

  • Next time you sit down to eat,

    下次你坐下吃飯時,

  • next time you sit down at a table,

    或是坐在餐桌時,

  • don't take out your phone at all.

    把手機收好,別拿出來。

  • Not only will this force you to be

    這不只會迫使你更專注當下,

  • present-minded and not dividing your attention

    不會被你的手機或是坐在對面的人

  • with your phone and whoever's at the table,

    分散掉你的注意力,

  • but it'll also force you to make conversation

    但它會迫使你要跟對方聊天

  • so that you'll be building your social skills as well.

    所以你也會增加你的社交技能。

  • Now, aside from mindfulness, there's one other

    除了正念以外,培養觀察力

  • critical piece to building those observational skills,

    還有一個很重要的部分,

  • and that's to gain experience in whatever field that you want be

    就是在你想要大顯身手的領域裡

  • really perceptive and observational in.

    從中獲得經驗。

  • Experts naturally pick out details

    專家會在不同情況和不同環境

  • that are relevant to them in situations and environments

    記取跟他們有相關的細節,

  • that the average person just isn't going to see.

    一般人則是會沒看到。

  • Think about how a,

    想想看要如何⋯

  • actually I can't say this word, what is it?

    其實我不知道這個字怎麼說,這是什麼啊?

  • Traceur.

    跑酷。

  • Yeah that, somebody who practices the art of parkour

    在練習跑酷的人

  • would look at the average urban environment

    所注意到都市的環境,相較於一般的路人

  • versus how a normal pedestrian would look at it.

    還要來得面面俱到。

  • While you and I would just see

    當你跟我只看到

  • roads and sidewalks and buildings and other people,

    馬路、人行道、建築物、其他人,

  • somebody who's an expert in parkour

    在練習跑酷的人

  • is going to see a lot more, naturally.

    自然會看到更多。

  • They're going to see the most efficient way

    他們會看得很有效率,

  • to get from Point A to Point B,

    從 A 點到 B 點,

  • whether it's ducking under a railing

    無論是躲避欄杆

  • or vaulting over something, climbing up a wall.

    跳過某個障礙、翻過一面牆等。

  • And you and I are just not going to see that.

    你跟我都沒看到。

  • Now, this tip is pretty related

    這秘訣跟夏洛克·福爾摩斯強調的

  • to another quality that Sherlock Holmes emphasizes a lot,

    另一個特質有許多關聯性,

  • a background knowledge across many different fields

    跨及不同領域的背景知識

  • that's both deep, and most importantly,

    是非常地深遠也是最重要的,

  • according to Holmes himself, well curated.

    根據福爾摩斯本人,精心策畫的。

  • This is a concept that Holmes calls the "brain-attic,"

    這是福爾摩斯的閣樓理論概念

  • and here's how he describes it in A Study in Scarlet:

    這是他在這本 A Study in Scarlet 書中所敘述的:

  • "I consider that a man's brain

    「我覺得人的腦袋

  • originally is like a little, empty attic,

    原先是個小小的空閣樓,

  • and you have to stock it with such furniture as you choose.

    你得要存放你所選的傢俱。

  • A fool takes in all lumber of every sort that he comes across,

    愚蠢的人會把看到且用不到東西都堆進去,

  • so that the knowledge which might be useful to him gets crowded out,

    所以對他有用的知識會被擠掉,

  • or at best is jumbled up with a lot of other things,

    或是與很多東西混在一起,

  • so that he has difficulty in laying his hands upon it.

    要著手找東西時就會有困難。

  • Now, the skillful workman is very careful indeed

    老練的人當然會比較注意

  • as to what he takes into his brain-attic."

    所放進去腦閣樓的東西。」

  • Now, I don't think you need to be paranoid about taking in the wrong things,

    對放錯東西也不用感到恐慌,

  • as the brain is pretty elastic

    因為腦袋是很有彈性的,

  • and you're really not going to "fill it up" as such.

    也不用做到像老練的人這樣子。

  • But you do want to make sure that you're focusing

    但你會想確定你大部分的時間

  • on the most important things for the majority of your time.

    都是專注在最重要的事情上。

  • Most of us have that one person in our life

    我們生活周遭都會有一種人

  • that's a master of useless trivia,

    精通於一些沒用的瑣事,

  • but hasn't really put a whole lot of time

    但沒有把所有的時間

  • into developing a useful skill.

    放在培養技巧上。

  • Don't be that person.

    別成為這樣的人。

  • Put the majority of your time and energy and focus

    把你多數的時間與精力專注在

  • into gaining useful information.

    獲得有用的資訊上。

  • And when you do, learn actively;

    當你在執行時,要積極一點,

  • take notes, summarize what you learn,

    作筆記,總結出你做學的,

  • and try to put it into practice as soon as you can.

    可以的話,便把它運用在練習上。

  • Additionally, you want to be exploring

    此外,你會想要探索

  • lots of other subjects that are somehow related to your main subject.

    更多與主題相關的東西。

  • Doing this will form lots of additional neural connections

    這樣操作下來會形成而外的神經連結,

  • and build a really deep web of information in your brain.

    在腦在裡也會建造更深的資訊網。

  • And memories that have lots of different connections

    記憶有許多不同連結,

  • are both more likely to be retrieved

    這些都很有可能會被截取,

  • and more likely to be combined with the problem at hand

    很有可能跟當前的問題結合,

  • to come up with a creative solution.

    蹦出創新的解決辦法。

  • As the famous investor and partner of Warren Buffet Charlie Munger said,

    有位著名的投資人與華倫·巴菲特的夥伴說過:

  • "The first rule is that you can't really know anything

    「規則一,你無法知道所有的事情,

  • if you just remember isolated facts"and try and bang them back.

    如果你只是記得獨立要素,要去試著回想這些要素。

  • If the facts don't hang together on a lattice-work of theory,

    如果這些要素沒有像格子理論一樣,有邏輯性勾在一起,

  • you don't have them in a usable form."

    這些資訊將無法使用。」

  • (urban music)

    (都市音樂)

  • The second mental strategy of Sherlock Holmes

    夏洛克·福爾摩斯第二個心智策略

  • that we're going to cover today is skepticism.

    我們今天會講的是懷疑論。

  • The Athenian playwright Euripides once wrote that

    雅典劇作家 Euripides 曾經寫道:

  • "Man's most valuable trait is a judicious sense of what not to believe."

    「人最有價值的特徵是知道什麼不該去相信的判斷力。」

  • And Sherlock Holmes brings a natural skepticism

    夏洛克·福爾摩斯在每個遇到的案件中

  • to every case that he faces.

    都會自然地使用到懷疑論。

  • He listens to his clients or observes the details

    他會用有深度與科學角度來傾聽他的客戶,

  • of a case or a crime scene deeply and scientifically,

    來觀察一件案子或是一個犯罪現場的細節

  • but he also compares what he's seen and observed

    但他也會把他所看到的,所觀察到的

  • to his current model of reality and all of his background knowledge.

    跟他的現實狀況以及背景知識來做比較。

  • But on the other hand, as studies have found,

    另一方面,研究指出

  • most of us can't help but instinctively believe what we hear right when we hear it,

    我們多數都無法克制,讓自己直覺地去相信我們所聽到的東西,

  • especially if we're put in stressful situations or we're put under time pressure.

    特別是在有壓力或是時間緊迫的情況下。

  • Not only that, but our brains also rely

    不僅如此,我們的腦袋還依賴著

  • on lots of different little cognitive biases and heuristics, mental shortcuts

    許多不同的認知偏誤、啟發法,心理捷徑,

  • that are very useful in many different situations,

    這些在不同的情況下是非常有用的,

  • especially as the human species evolved,

    特別是在人類演化後,

  • but that can also lead to incorrect decision-making and bad thinking.

    但也有可能會引導至不正確的決定與壞思維。

  • For instance, we tend to weight

    例如,我們傾向過度衡量

  • the information that is available to us much too heavily,

    我們可獲得的資訊

  • that's called the availability heuristic.

    那是所謂的可得性啟發。

  • We also tend to believe things

    如果我們知道大多數的人都相信這些事情,

  • if we know a lot of other people believe them,

    我們也會傾向去相信它,

  • the bandwagon effect.

    這就是從眾效應。

  • And we also rely heavily on stereotypes.

    我們會過度依賴刻板印象。

  • In fact, a recent study in The Journal of Criminology,

    事實上,犯罪學期刊近期的研究

  • which I think Holmes probably would have read,

    如果福爾摩斯還在的話可能也會閱讀,

  • found that certain physical traits are correlated with sentencing decisions.

    發現到特定的物理特徵與判決決定有相關性。

  • This being despite the fact that logically,

    儘管事實要符合邏輯,

  • we all know that our physical appearance

    我們都知道外表特徵

  • has nothing to do with whether or not we committed a crime.

    跟犯罪行為是沒有直接關係的,

  • And that isn't even the half of it.

    連邊都沾不上。

  • Environmental factors that you wouldn't expect

    你不以為然的環境因素

  • also have the ability to really influence our decision-making.

    也有能力影響我們的決定。

  • For instance, prospective students

    例如申請入學的學生,

  • that visit a college campus on a cloudy day

    在陰天的時候拜訪大學校園,

  • are more likely to enroll in that college

    會讀這所學校的機率

  • than if they did on a sunny day.

    會大過於在晴天時候去拜訪。

  • And people who are affected by seasonal affective disorder

    受季節性情緒失調的人

  • tend to make more risk-averse decisions with their money

    在冬季時做的金錢風險規避決策

  • during the winter months than they do during the summer months.

    比夏季時還要多。

  • Now with all these natural flaws in our thinking,

    這與生俱來的思維缺陷,

  • how can we actually think objectively?

    我們要如何客觀地去思考?

  • One powerful strategy comes from the author Maria Konnikova,

    一位有強大策略的作者 Maria Konnikova

  • who wrote the book Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes,

    寫了本書「策畫者‧如何有福爾摩斯的思考術」

  • which was, as you might guess,

    這本書,你可能猜得到

  • one of the big inspirations for this video.

    它是啟發這部影片的一個中的重要因素。

  • Her advice is to actively work

    她建議要時時注意

  • on noticing what is priming your thoughts

    是什麼在啟動你的思考

  • and influencing your decisions.

    是什麼在影響你的決定。

  • As she states in the book, "A prime stops being a prime

    像書中所提到的:「質數將不再是質素

  • "once we're aware of its existence.

    一旦我們意識到它的存在。」

  • Bring any attention at all to the priming mechanism

    把專注力全都放在啟動機制,

  • and you'll likely find the effect go down to zero.

    你就會發現其影響會降至最低。

  • When we're aware of the reason for our action,

    當我們意識到行動的原因,

  • it stops influencing us."

    它便停止影響我們。」

  • And as we'll add on to that piece of advice,

    我們都添增一些新東西到她的建議裡

  • make sure that when you come to a conclusion,

    確認下總結之前

  • you can point to the logical deduction

    你可以指向有邏輯的推論

  • or the observable evidence that caused it.

    或是可觀察的證據。

  • If you can't, then it's a good sign

    如果沒辦法的話,就表示

  • that you're relying on one of those cognitive biases

    你還是依賴著認知偏誤的模式,

  • and that you should probably work through the problem a little bit more deliberately again.

    你得要再加把勁想通問題。

  • (urban music)

    (都市音樂)

  • Finally, Sherlock Holmes' ability to make deductions and solve cases

    最後講到概率思維,夏洛克·福爾摩斯的推論與破案的能力

  • hinges on his ability to think in terms of probabilities.

    取決於他的思考能力。

  • What is most likely to happen?

    最有可能發生的是什麼?

  • When Holmes is working on a case, he thinks

    當福爾摩斯在處裡案件時,他思考得像

  • like a scientist, and he uses the scientific method,

    位科學家,使用科學的方式

  • forming hypotheses as he goes along

    在過程中做了很多假設

  • and testing them against new data as it's discovered.

    便與新發現的資料做比較。

  • And since that data is almost never 100% conclusive,

    因為資料曾未百分百正確,

  • he generates many different hypotheses,

    他做了許多不同的假設,

  • and then he tries to figure out which one is the most likely candidate.

    然後他試著想出哪一個假設是最有可能的。

  • Now, this probabilistic thinking is also called inductive reasoning.

    這概率思維論也稱為歸納推理。

  • While deductive reasoning uses certainty and sound logic

    演繹推理會使用肯定且符合邏輯的方式

  • to reach conclusions that are 100% true,

    做出最正確結論。

  • inductive reasoning asks what is the mostly likely answer,

    歸納推理則是會依據現有的事實

  • given the facts?

    來尋求最有可能的答案是什麼?

  • And again, since most complex problems in life

    再次提到,因為人生最複雜的問題

  • usually rely on incomplete information,

    通常會依賴不完整的資訊,

  • you need to be able to use inductive reasoning

    你得需要會使用歸納推理,

  • just as much as you need to be able to use deductive reasoning.

    且使用的程度要跟演繹推理一樣。

  • Now if you want to see this probabilistic thinking in action

    如果你想要看概率思維的實際操作,

  • one of the Holmes stories, "The Sign of Four," has a great example.

    福爾摩斯的其中一本書『The Sign of Four』是個不錯的推薦。

  • It starts when Dr. Watson hands Holmes a pocket watch

    故事開始是由一位 Watson 醫生遞給福爾摩斯一個懷錶

  • and asks what he can deduce from it.

    便問他可以從中看出什麼端倪。

  • After looking the watch over for a few seconds,

    看了懷錶幾秒後,

  • Holmes replies with quite a lot of information, actually.

    福爾摩斯其實能回覆相當多的資訊。

  • That the watch was originally owned by Watson's father,

    那懷錶之前是他父親所擁有的,

  • then passed down to his elder brother.

    傳承給他的大哥。

  • Also that his older brother had certain periods of his life

    還有,他的大哥有過繁華的生活

  • that were prosperous, but spent most of it in poverty

    但都貧困地度過,

  • and probably ended up dying of alcoholism.

    最後他可能是死於酗酒。

  • Now, this deduction turns out to be extremely accurate,

    他的演繹推論結果非常地精準,

  • and at first Watson is offended,

    Watson 一開始感到被冒犯,

  • thinking that Holmes had actually dug into his personal life

    想說福爾摩斯調查過他的私人生活

  • and that he was being a charlatan, but Holmes insists

    應該是個騙子,但福爾摩斯堅持表示

  • that he didn't even know Watson had a brother until looking at the watch.

    他是看到懷錶才知道 Watson 有位哥哥。

  • All of his deductions were based on

    這全部的推理都是基於

  • the observations he gained from the watch and probabilistic thinking.

    他對懷錶的觀察以及概率思維。

  • Now if you're curious about all these details

    如果你對細節感到好奇的話,

  • I highly recommend going and reading the story.

    我強烈推薦看這本故事,

  • Since it is public domain, you can read it for free.

    因為是公開的作品,你可以免費閱讀。

  • But for an example, he does note

    舉個例子,他的確有說道

  • that the alcoholism deduction came from the fact that

    酗酒的推論是來自某個事實,

  • there were scratches around the keyhole, and a sober man

    在鑰匙圈上有刮痕,清醒的人是不會讓

  • would have never put scratches around the keyhole

    鑰匙圈上有任何刮痕的,

  • because he wouldn't have missed the keyhole when trying to open the watch.

    因為在看懷錶時一定也會連同鑰匙圈一起看。

  • And moving away from the realm of fiction,

    除了小說的佐證以外,

  • if you want a more practical example,

    如果你想要更多實際的例子,

  • I've found that probabilistic thinking can actually help you find things that you've lost

    我認為概率思維能夠幫助你找回遺失的東西,

  • a lot more quickly than the most commonly recommended solution

    效率好過於大眾推薦使用的方法,

  • which is to mentally retrace your steps.

    逐步地回想。

  • Now that can work pretty well,

    逐步回想的確有用

  • but it encourages linear thinking, which can waste time.

    但它會用到線性思維,是非常耗時的。

  • If you think probabilistically, and you ask yourself

    如果你用該率思維問問自己

  • what is the most likely place I would have, say,

    最有可能的地方是哪裡,像是我可能

  • taken out my wallet, what is the most likely place

    拿出了皮夾,那最有可能的地方是

  • I was really distracted and might have set it down,

    當我分心時,隨手放著的

  • you may end up finding it faster

    這樣思考可能很快就找到,

  • and that could be the difference between somebody picking it up and making off with it

    如果是被別人撿到占為己有與實際將它找回

  • and you actually getting it back.

    兩者會有點不太一樣。

  • Now, there are lots of other techniques

    夏洛克·福爾摩斯用過的技巧有很多

  • that Sherlock Holmes used, which we could do tons of different videos on.

    可以做成很多集影片來探討。

  • But one of the them, which Sherlock

    但其中一技巧個是夏洛克

  • would have surely used in his investigations,

    肯定在案件調查會用到的,

  • and which is very closely related to probability is game theory.

    這技巧跟概率思維有點雷同,就是賽局理論。

  • And if you'd like to find out what game theory is,

    如果你想知道賽局理論是什麼,

  • and how you can use it as an extremely effective decision-making tool for solving problems,

    並了解要如何把它有效運用在解決問題方面,

  • you should definitely check out this video

    你一定要看這部影片,

  • that I made with my friend Jade

    這是我跟我朋友 Jade 拍攝的,

  • over at her channel, Up and Atom.

    放在她的頻道 Up and Atom 上。

  • Not only will the video teach you about game theory in general

    這影片不只教你一般的賽局理論

  • but because it uses multiple choice questions as a case study,

    還使用了選擇題方式來做案件分析。

  • You're also going to learn a technique

    你也會學到一個能夠幫助你

  • that'll help you potentially get fewer wrong answers on your own tests in the future.

    未來考試選錯機率較低的答題技巧。

  • And by the way, it is not something I talked about in my multiple choice video,

    順道一提,這跟我另一部關於選擇題的影片不太一樣,

  • so you're definitely going to want to check it out.

    所以你一定要來看。

  • Also, you might notice that there is not an ad at the end of this video.

    還有,你可能注意到這部影片片尾沒有廣告。

  • That's because I made this video as part of Skillshare's Spotlight programme.

    那是因為這部影片也是 Skillshare's Spotlight 企劃的一部份,

  • where they use their time and ad budget

    它們花時間花預算

  • to help highlight small creators who are doing great things.

    來幫助做好事的小創作者。

  • Jade's channel is in the Spotlight this month,

    Jade 的頻道這個月上了 Spotlight

  • and it focuses on topics like physics

    著重的主題有物理

  • and math and cryptography and lots of other cool stuff,

    、數學、密碼學以及許多很酷的東西,

  • so if you enjoy this video on game theory

    如果你喜歡她講的賽局理論,

  • definitely subscribe to her channel.

    也要訂閱她的頻道。

  • In fact, I'm not going to put any

    事實上,我沒有要放任何

  • of the other call-to-action things

    我平常在影片會放的

  • I usually put in my videos here,

    業配行動呼籲

  • because I want you to just go watch this video

    因為我只想讓你看到她的局理論

  • and subscribe to Jade.

    並訂閱 Jade 的頻道。

  • Other than that guys, thank you so much for watching;

    除此之外,感謝您的收看,

  • hopefully you found this video helpful

    希望這部影片對你有幫助,

  • and I will see you in the next one.

    我們下次見。

Sherlock Holmes is undoubtedly

夏洛克·福爾摩斯無庸置疑是位

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