is an electronic cigarette.

是一根電子香煙

It's something that's, since it was invented a year or two ago,

它自從一兩年前被發明後

has given me untold happiness.

已帶給我不可言喻的快樂

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

A little bit of it, I think, is the nicotine,

一小部分原因是尼古丁

but there's something much bigger than that.

但還有更重要的原因

Which is ever since, in the U.K., they banned smoking in public places,

自從英國禁止在公共場所吸煙

I've never enjoyed a drinks party ever again.

我就再也沒有享受過酒會了

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And the reason, I only worked out just the other day,

我不久前才總結出個原因

which is when you go to a drinks party

就是當你來到一場酒會

and you stand up and you hold a glass of red wine

站在那裡，手拿一杯紅酒

and you talk endlessly to people,

口若懸河

you don't actually want to spend all the time talking.

你可不願意一直講話

It's really, really tiring.

那太累了

Sometimes you just want to stand there silently, alone with your thoughts.

有時候你只是想靜靜地站著想點事情

Sometimes you just want to stand in the corner and stare out of the window.

有時候你只是想站在角落望著窗外

Now the problem is, when you can't smoke,

問題來了——當你不能抽煙的時候

if you stand and stare out of the window on your own,

如果你獨自一人站著並望著窗外

you're an antisocial, friendless idiot.

你就是個沒朋友的社交白癡

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

If you stand and stare out of the window on your own with a cigarette,

如果你獨自站著望向窗外，拿著一根煙

you're a fucking philosopher.

你就是個深沉的哲學家

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

So the power of reframing things

所以說重新定義事物的威力

cannot be overstated.

怎麼講都不會太誇大

What we have is exactly the same thing, the same activity,

兩個完全一樣的東西、行為

but one of them makes you feel great

其中一種讓你感覺良好

and the other one, with just a small change of posture,

而另一種，只要稍作改變

makes you feel terrible.

就能讓你感覺極差

And I think one of the problems with classical economics

我認為古典經濟學的一個問題

is it's absolutely preoccupied with reality.

在於它過分關注現實

And reality isn't a particularly good guide to human happiness.

但現實並非是通向人類幸福的好指南

Why, for example,

比如說

are pensioners much happier

為什麼領退休金的老人

than the young unemployed?

比年輕失業者更快樂？

Both of them, after all, are in exactly the same stage of life.

畢竟二者的生活型態完全相同

You both have too much time on your hands and not much money.

手上有太多時間，卻沒有多少錢可花

But pensioners are reportedly very, very happy,

但是退休老人據稱非常非常快樂

whereas the unemployed are extraordinarily unhappy and depressed.

而失業者則極度消沉及絕望

The reason, I think, is that the pensioners believe they've chosen to be pensioners,

我認為原因在於，退休老人相信這身份是自己選擇成為的

whereas the young unemployed

而年輕失業者

feel it's been thrust upon them.

卻感覺是被迫失業的

In England the upper middle classes have actually solved this problem perfectly,

在英國，上層的中產階級已完美地解決這個問題

because they've re-branded unemployment.

他們重新包裝了失業這回事

If you're an upper-middle-class English person,

如果你屬於英國的上層中產階級

you call unemployment "a year off."

你管失業叫「一年假期」

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

And that's because having a son who's unemployed in Manchester

因為你兒子要是在曼徹斯特失了業

is really quite embarrassing,

是一件蠻丟臉的事

but having a son who's unemployed in Thailand

但如果你兒子是在泰國賦閒

is really viewed as quite an accomplishment.

則是一項非凡的成就

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

But actually the power to re-brand things --

事實上，重新包裝事物的威力是--

to understand that actually our experiences, costs, things

瞭解到我們的經驗、花費、事物

don't actually much depend on what they really are,

並不太取決於它們自身

but on how we view them --

而是取決於我們如何看待它們

I genuinely think can't be overstated.

我確實相信這威力不容小覷

There's an experiment I think Daniel Pink refers to

我記得Daniel Pink提到過一個實驗

where you put two dogs in a box

你把兩隻狗關在箱子裡

and the box has an electric floor.

箱子底部通電

Every now and then an electric shock is applied to the floor,

不定時的給予電擊

which pains the dogs.

讓狗受到痛苦

The only difference is one of the dogs has a small button in its half of the box.

唯一的不同是，其中一隻狗在它那半箱子中有個小按鈕

And when it nuzzles the button, the electric shock stops.

當它用鼻子按那個按鈕電擊就停止了

The other dog doesn't have the button.

另一隻狗沒有這個按鈕

It's exposed to exactly the same level of pain as the dog in the first box,

它感受到的電擊痛苦與前一隻狗完全相同

but it has no control over the circumstances.

但它對局面沒有任何掌控

Generally the first dog can be relatively content.

基本上，第一隻狗相對地滿足

The second dog lapses into complete depression.

第二隻狗則陷入深深的絕望

The circumstances of our lives may actually matter less to our happiness

人生境遇對我們幸福的影響力

than the sense of control we feel over our lives.

比不上我們對人生的控制感

It's an interesting question.

這是個有趣的問題

We ask the question -- the whole debate in the Western world

整個西方世界都在爭論

is about the level of taxation.

稅收水準究竟該怎麼定

But I think there's another debate to be asked,

但我認為另一個爭論應被提出

which is the level of control we have over our tax money.

就是我們對稅款的控制程度

That what costs us 10 pounds in one context can be a curse.

在某種情況下花的10英鎊可能是個詛咒

What costs us 10 pounds in a different context we may actually welcome.

而在另一種情況下花去的10英鎊可能倍受歡迎

You know, pay 20,000 pounds in tax towards health

你知道，花費2萬英鎊稅金投資健康

and you're merely feeling a mug.

你會感到自己是個冤大頭

Pay 20,000 pounds to endow a hospital ward

但花費2萬英鎊去捐贈一間醫院病房

and you're called a philanthropist.

你會被稱作慈善家

I'm probably in the wrong country to talk about willingness to pay tax.

也許我在這個國家不適合談論納稅的意願

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So I'll give you one in return. How you frame things really matters.

所以作為補償我要講如何對事物定調真的很重要

Do you call it the bailout of Greece

到底要稱作對希臘的緊急金援

or the bailout of a load of stupid banks which lent to Greece?

還是稱作一堆愚蠢的銀行笨到貸款給希臘的緊急援助？

Because they are actually the same thing.

因為這兩種說法實際上是同一回事

What you call them actually affects

你如何定調一個問題

how you react to them, viscerally and morally.

會影響到你心理以及倫理上的反應

I think psychological value is great to be absolutely honest.

坦白說我認為心理價值非常重要

One of my great friends, a professor called Nick Chater,

我有一位很好的朋友Nick Chater教授

who's the Professor of Decision Sciences in London,

在倫敦研究決策科學

believes that we should spend far less time

他認為我們應該大大減少

looking into humanity's hidden depths

探討人性隱藏深度的時間

and spend much more time exploring the hidden shallows.

而把更多時間用在探索人性隱藏的膚淺上

I think that's true actually.

我深深以為

I think impressions have an insane effect

印象能夠強烈地影響

on what we think and what we do.

我們的所想所為

But what we don't have is a really good model of human psychology.

但我們缺乏一個人類心理學的好模型

At least pre-Kahneman perhaps,

至少可能在卡尼曼之前的年代

we didn't have a really good model of human psychology

我們一直都沒有一個比較好的人類心理學模型

to put alongside models of engineering, of neoclassical economics.

以與工程學模型和新古典經濟學模型比肩

So people who believed in psychological solutions didn't have a model.

因此那些相信心理學解釋的人們沒有可用的模型

We didn't have a framework.

沒有理論框架可用

This is what Warren Buffett's business partner Charlie Munger calls

這就是巴菲特的生意夥伴查理‧孟格所稱

"a latticework on which to hang your ideas."

“一個用來懸掛你想法的格子框架”

Engineers, economists, classical economists

工程師、經濟學家、古典學派經濟學家

all had a very, very robust existing latticework

都有一個非常強有力的現有理論框架

on which practically every idea could be hung.

用來準確定位任何一個相關想法

We merely have a collection of random individual insights

心理學卻只有一些隨機的個人見解

without an overall model.

但缺乏整體的理論框架

And what that means is that in looking at solutions,

這就意味當我們尋求解決方案時

we've probably given too much priority

我們太過側重於

to what I call technical engineering solutions, Newtonian solutions,

工程學方面的、牛頓思維的辦法

and not nearly enough to the psychological ones.

而對心理學方向的關注遠遠不足

You know my example of the Eurostar.

你們都知道我那個關於歐洲之星的例子

Six million pounds spent to reduce the journey time

六百億英鎊花在將巴黎與倫敦

between Paris and London by about 40 minutes.

之間的車程縮短40分鐘

For 0.01 percent of this money you could have put WiFi on the trains,

但只要花這筆錢的1%你可以讓列車有WiFi網路

which wouldn't have reduced the duration of the journey,

這雖然不會縮短旅程的時間

but would have improved its enjoyment and its usefullness far more.

但會大大增加旅程的樂趣和用途

For maybe 10 percent of the money,

用這筆錢的10分之1

you could have paid all of the world's top male and female supermodels

你就能請到全世界的男女超級名模

to walk up and down the train handing out free Chateau Petrus to all the passengers.

在走道上向所有旅客分發免費的波得路堡葡萄酒

You'd still have five [million] pounds in change,

你還能剩下50億英鎊

and people would ask for the trains to be slowed down.

旅客還可能會要求列車減速

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Why were we not given the chance

我們為什麼從未嘗試

to solve that problem psychologically?

從心理學的角度來解決問題？

I think it's because there's an imbalance, an asymmetry,

我想這是因為我們對待以下兩種思維方式是不平衡、不對稱的

in the way we treat creative, emotionally-driven psychological ideas

一種是創造性的、情緒引導的心理學思維方式

versus the way we treat rational, numerical, spreadsheet-driven ideas.

另一種理性的、數據的、報表引導的思維方式

If you're a creative person, I think quite rightly,

如果你是一個創造性的人

you have to share all your ideas for approval

你必須將自己的想法分享給

with people much more rational than you.

更理性的人，獲得他們的批准

You have to go in and you have to have a cost-benefit analysis,

你必須給出一個成本收益分析

a feasibility study, an ROI study and so forth.

一個可行性研究投資回報率分析之類的東西

And I think that's probably right.

這也許沒有錯

But this does not apply the other way around.

但當情況反過來時卻是行不通的

People who have an existing framework,

那些已有理論框架

an economic framework, an engineering framework,

經濟學框架、工程學框架

feel that actually logic is its own answer.

認為邏輯是自身的答案

What they don't say is, "Well the numbers all seem to add up,

他們不會說：“數字看來是沒錯

but before I present this idea, I'll go and show it to some really crazy people

但我要在報告這個想法之前我要去問問那些真正瘋狂的人

to see if they can come up with something better."

看他們能不能有更好的想法。”

And so we, artificially I think, prioritize

所以我們人為地

what I'd call mechanistic ideas over psychological ideas.

將機械化思維置於心理學思維之上

An example of a great psychological idea:

這裡有個關於心理學解決方案的絕佳例子：

The single best improvement in passenger satisfaction on the London Underground per pound spent

倫敦地鐵花錢在改善乘客滿意度上最好的措施

came when they didn't add any extra trains nor change the frequency of the trains,

並不是增加列車數量或者改變行班間距

they put dot matrix display board on the platforms.

而是在月臺上放置了顯示營幕

Because the nature of a wait

由於等待的特性

is not just dependent on its numerical quality, its duration,

並不完全取決於等待時間的長度

but on the level of uncertainty you experience during that wait.

而是取決於你等待時所感受不確定性的程度

Waiting seven minutes for a train with a countdown clock

在計時器的倒計時中等待7分鐘

is less frustrating and irritating

其間的沮喪和煩躁遠低於

than waiting four minutes, knuckle-biting

只等了四分鐘，但咬著手指不斷逼問

going, "When's this train going to damn well arrive?"

這該死的車什麼時候才來？

Here's a beautiful example of a psychological solution deployed in Korea.

韓國也有個很棒的心理學解決方案

Red traffic lights have a countdown delay.

紅燈時有倒數計時

It's proven to reduce the accident rate in experiments.

這在實驗中被證實能夠降低事故發生率

Why? Because road rage, impatience and general irritation

為什麼？因為交通上的憤怒、不耐和焦躁

are massively reduced when you can actually see the time you have to wait.

在你能清楚看到剩下的等待時間時被大大降低

In China, not really understanding the principle behind this,

在中國，不知為何

they applied the same principle to green traffic lights.

他們在綠燈的時候運用同樣方法

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Which isn't a great idea.

這可不是個好主意

You're 200 yards away, you realize you've got five seconds to go, you floor it.

你離路口還有200碼遠看到綠燈還剩5秒，就直接衝過去

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

The Koreans, very assiduously, did test both.

韓國人很嚴謹的測試了兩種情況

The accident rate goes down when you apply this to red traffic lights;

給紅燈倒計時，事故率降低

it goes up when you apply it to green traffic lights.

而給綠燈倒計時，事故率則上升

This is all I'm asking for really in human decision making,

我呼籲人們在做決策時

is the consideration of these three things.

考慮這三個方面（投影：技術、心理、經濟）

I'm not asking for the complete primacy of one over the other.

它們的重要性不分先後

I'm merely saying that when you solve problems,

我只是希望當你解決問題時

you should look at all three of these equally

同等重要地考慮以下這三個要素

and you should seek as far as possible

你應盡可能地

to find solutions which sit in the sweet spot in the middle.

去找尋匯聚三者的完美解決方案

If you actually look at a great business,

如果你實際去評估一家好公司

you'll nearly always see all of these three things coming into play.

你幾乎都會看到這三個方面的作為

Really, really successful businesses --

貨真價實的成功企業

Google is great, great technological success,

Google是成功的科技公司

but it's also based on a very good psychological insight:

但它同時反映出非常好的心理學洞見

People believe something that only does one thing

人們相信專注於一種業務的公司

is better at that thing than something that does that thing and something else.

在此種業務上要比多樣化的公司做得更出色

It's an innate thing called goal dilution.

這種固有的信念叫做目標稀釋

Ayelet Fishbach has written a paper about this.

阿耶萊-費斯巴赫寫了一篇關於這件事的論文

Everybody else at the time of Google, more or less,

Google出現時的其他同業公司

was trying to be a portal.

都在努力成為入口網站

Yes, there's a search function,

的確，他們有搜索功能

but you also have weather, sports scores, bits of news.

但也有天氣預報、體育賽事比分、一點新聞報導

Google understood that if you're just a search engine,

Google明白如果你僅僅是一個搜尋引擎

people assume you're a very, very good search engine.

人們會假定你是非常好的搜尋引擎

All of you know this actually

你們所有人

from when you go in to buy a television.

在買電視的時候都深刻體會到這點

And in the shabbier end of the row of flat screen TVs

在那排平板電視最後的破爛角落裡

you can see are these rather despised things called combined TV and DVD players.

有一種備受冷落的機器叫電視與DVD組合播放機

And we have no knowledge whatsoever of the quality of those things,

你對這種東西的品質一無所知

but we look at a combined TV and DVD player and we go, "Uck.

但我們眼看這電視與DVD播放器的組合就會觀感很差

It's probably a bit of a crap telly and a bit rubbish as a DVD player."

覺得這可能是爛電視和爛DVD播放機的組合吧

So we walk out of the shops with one of each.

所以我們走出商店時會分別買這兩種機器

Google is as much a psychological success as it is a technological one.

Google在心理學方面的成功和技術上的成功同樣重要

I propose that we can use psychology to solve problems

我提議我們可以用心理學來解決

that we didn't even realize were problems at all.

那些我們甚至不認為是問題的問題

This is my suggestion for getting people to finish their course of antibiotics.

我有個幫助人們完成抗生素療程的建議

Don't give them 24 white pills.

不要給他們24顆白色藥片

Give them 18 white pills and six blue ones

給他們18顆白色藥片和6顆藍色藥片

and tell them to take the white pills first and then take the blue ones.

告訴他們先吃白的，再吃藍的

It's called chunking.

這叫做組塊化

The likelihood that people will get to the end is much greater

人們堅持到最後的可能性大大增加

when there is a milestone somewhere in the middle.

因為中途有個里程碑

One of the great mistakes, I think, of economics

我想經濟學一個顯著的錯誤

is it fails to understand that what something is,

就是沒有認知到某個事項

whether it's retirement, unemployment, cost,

無論是退休、失業，還是花費

is a function, not only of its amount, but also its meaning.

都不僅是作用或是數據更具有心理意義

This is a toll crossing in Britain.

在英國有個收費站

Quite often queues happen at the tolls.

通常在收費站都要排隊

Sometimes you get very, very severe queues.

有時候甚至大排長龍

You could apply the same principle actually, if you like,

如果你願意，可以採取

to the security lanes in airports.

與機場安檢同樣的方法

What would happen if you could actually pay twice as much money to cross the bridge,