字幕列表 影片播放 已審核 字幕已審核 列印所有字幕 列印翻譯字幕 列印英文字幕 What you have here 我拿著的 is an electronic cigarette. 是一根電子香煙 It's something that's, since it was invented a year or two ago, 它自從一兩年前被發明後 has given me untold happiness. 已帶給我不可言喻的快樂 (Laughter) （笑聲） A little bit of it, I think, is the nicotine, 一小部分原因是尼古丁 but there's something much bigger than that. 但還有更重要的原因 Which is ever since, in the U.K., they banned smoking in public places, 自從英國禁止在公共場所吸煙 I've never enjoyed a drinks party ever again. 我就再也沒有享受過酒會了 (Laughter) （笑聲） And the reason, I only worked out just the other day, 我不久前才總結出個原因 which is when you go to a drinks party 就是當你來到一場酒會 and you stand up and you hold a glass of red wine 站在那裡，手拿一杯紅酒 and you talk endlessly to people, 口若懸河 you don't actually want to spend all the time talking. 你可不願意一直講話 It's really, really tiring. 那太累了 Sometimes you just want to stand there silently, alone with your thoughts. 有時候你只是想靜靜地站著想點事情 Sometimes you just want to stand in the corner and stare out of the window. 有時候你只是想站在角落望著窗外 Now the problem is, when you can't smoke, 問題來了——當你不能抽煙的時候 if you stand and stare out of the window on your own, 如果你獨自一人站著並望著窗外 you're an antisocial, friendless idiot. 你就是個沒朋友的社交白癡 (Laughter) （笑聲） If you stand and stare out of the window on your own with a cigarette, 如果你獨自站著望向窗外，拿著一根煙 you're a fucking philosopher. 你就是個深沉的哲學家 (Laughter) （笑聲） (Applause) （掌聲） So the power of reframing things 所以說重新定義事物的威力 cannot be overstated. 怎麼講都不會太誇大 What we have is exactly the same thing, the same activity, 兩個完全一樣的東西、行為 but one of them makes you feel great 其中一種讓你感覺良好 and the other one, with just a small change of posture, 而另一種，只要稍作改變 makes you feel terrible. 就能讓你感覺極差 And I think one of the problems with classical economics 我認為古典經濟學的一個問題 is it's absolutely preoccupied with reality. 在於它過分關注現實 And reality isn't a particularly good guide to human happiness. 但現實並非是通向人類幸福的好指南 Why, for example, 比如說 are pensioners much happier 為什麼領退休金的老人 than the young unemployed? 比年輕失業者更快樂？ Both of them, after all, are in exactly the same stage of life. 畢竟二者的生活型態完全相同 You both have too much time on your hands and not much money. 手上有太多時間，卻沒有多少錢可花 But pensioners are reportedly very, very happy, 但是退休老人據稱非常非常快樂 whereas the unemployed are extraordinarily unhappy and depressed. 而失業者則極度消沉及絕望 The reason, I think, is that the pensioners believe they've chosen to be pensioners, 我認為原因在於，退休老人相信這身份是自己選擇成為的 whereas the young unemployed 而年輕失業者 feel it's been thrust upon them. 卻感覺是被迫失業的 In England the upper middle classes have actually solved this problem perfectly, 在英國，上層的中產階級已完美地解決這個問題 because they've re-branded unemployment. 他們重新包裝了失業這回事 If you're an upper-middle-class English person, 如果你屬於英國的上層中產階級 you call unemployment "a year off." 你管失業叫「一年假期」 (Laughter) (笑聲) And that's because having a son who's unemployed in Manchester 因為你兒子要是在曼徹斯特失了業 is really quite embarrassing, 是一件蠻丟臉的事 but having a son who's unemployed in Thailand 但如果你兒子是在泰國賦閒 is really viewed as quite an accomplishment. 則是一項非凡的成就 (Laughter) (笑聲) But actually the power to re-brand things -- 事實上，重新包裝事物的威力是-- to understand that actually our experiences, costs, things 瞭解到我們的經驗、花費、事物 don't actually much depend on what they really are, 並不太取決於它們自身 but on how we view them -- 而是取決於我們如何看待它們 I genuinely think can't be overstated. 我確實相信這威力不容小覷 There's an experiment I think Daniel Pink refers to 我記得Daniel Pink提到過一個實驗 where you put two dogs in a box 你把兩隻狗關在箱子裡 and the box has an electric floor. 箱子底部通電 Every now and then an electric shock is applied to the floor, 不定時的給予電擊 which pains the dogs. 讓狗受到痛苦 The only difference is one of the dogs has a small button in its half of the box. 唯一的不同是，其中一隻狗在它那半箱子中有個小按鈕 And when it nuzzles the button, the electric shock stops. 當它用鼻子按那個按鈕電擊就停止了 The other dog doesn't have the button. 另一隻狗沒有這個按鈕 It's exposed to exactly the same level of pain as the dog in the first box, 它感受到的電擊痛苦與前一隻狗完全相同 but it has no control over the circumstances. 但它對局面沒有任何掌控 Generally the first dog can be relatively content. 基本上，第一隻狗相對地滿足 The second dog lapses into complete depression. 第二隻狗則陷入深深的絕望 The circumstances of our lives may actually matter less to our happiness 人生境遇對我們幸福的影響力 than the sense of control we feel over our lives. 比不上我們對人生的控制感 It's an interesting question. 這是個有趣的問題 We ask the question -- the whole debate in the Western world 整個西方世界都在爭論 is about the level of taxation. 稅收水準究竟該怎麼定 But I think there's another debate to be asked, 但我認為另一個爭論應被提出 which is the level of control we have over our tax money. 就是我們對稅款的控制程度 That what costs us 10 pounds in one context can be a curse. 在某種情況下花的10英鎊可能是個詛咒 What costs us 10 pounds in a different context we may actually welcome. 而在另一種情況下花去的10英鎊可能倍受歡迎 You know, pay 20,000 pounds in tax towards health 你知道，花費2萬英鎊稅金投資健康 and you're merely feeling a mug. 你會感到自己是個冤大頭 Pay 20,000 pounds to endow a hospital ward 但花費2萬英鎊去捐贈一間醫院病房 and you're called a philanthropist. 你會被稱作慈善家 I'm probably in the wrong country to talk about willingness to pay tax. 也許我在這個國家不適合談論納稅的意願 (Laughter) （笑聲） So I'll give you one in return. How you frame things really matters. 所以作為補償我要講如何對事物定調真的很重要 Do you call it the bailout of Greece 到底要稱作對希臘的緊急金援 or the bailout of a load of stupid banks which lent to Greece? 還是稱作一堆愚蠢的銀行笨到貸款給希臘的緊急援助？ Because they are actually the same thing. 因為這兩種說法實際上是同一回事 What you call them actually affects 你如何定調一個問題 how you react to them, viscerally and morally. 會影響到你心理以及倫理上的反應 I think psychological value is great to be absolutely honest. 坦白說我認為心理價值非常重要 One of my great friends, a professor called Nick Chater, 我有一位很好的朋友Nick Chater教授 who's the Professor of Decision Sciences in London, 在倫敦研究決策科學 believes that we should spend far less time 他認為我們應該大大減少 looking into humanity's hidden depths 探討人性隱藏深度的時間 and spend much more time exploring the hidden shallows. 而把更多時間用在探索人性隱藏的膚淺上 I think that's true actually. 我深深以為 I think impressions have an insane effect 印象能夠強烈地影響 on what we think and what we do. 我們的所想所為 But what we don't have is a really good model of human psychology. 但我們缺乏一個人類心理學的好模型 At least pre-Kahneman perhaps, 至少可能在卡尼曼之前的年代 we didn't have a really good model of human psychology 我們一直都沒有一個比較好的人類心理學模型 to put alongside models of engineering, of neoclassical economics. 以與工程學模型和新古典經濟學模型比肩 So people who believed in psychological solutions didn't have a model. 因此那些相信心理學解釋的人們沒有可用的模型 We didn't have a framework. 沒有理論框架可用 This is what Warren Buffett's business partner Charlie Munger calls 這就是巴菲特的生意夥伴查理‧孟格所稱 "a latticework on which to hang your ideas." “一個用來懸掛你想法的格子框架” Engineers, economists, classical economists 工程師、經濟學家、古典學派經濟學家 all had a very, very robust existing latticework 都有一個非常強有力的現有理論框架 on which practically every idea could be hung. 用來準確定位任何一個相關想法 We merely have a collection of random individual insights 心理學卻只有一些隨機的個人見解 without an overall model. 但缺乏整體的理論框架 And what that means is that in looking at solutions, 這就意味當我們尋求解決方案時 we've probably given too much priority 我們太過側重於 to what I call technical engineering solutions, Newtonian solutions, 工程學方面的、牛頓思維的辦法 and not nearly enough to the psychological ones. 而對心理學方向的關注遠遠不足 You know my example of the Eurostar. 你們都知道我那個關於歐洲之星的例子 Six million pounds spent to reduce the journey time 六百億英鎊花在將巴黎與倫敦 between Paris and London by about 40 minutes. 之間的車程縮短40分鐘 For 0.01 percent of this money you could have put WiFi on the trains, 但只要花這筆錢的1%你可以讓列車有WiFi網路 which wouldn't have reduced the duration of the journey, 這雖然不會縮短旅程的時間 but would have improved its enjoyment and its usefullness far more. 但會大大增加旅程的樂趣和用途 For maybe 10 percent of the money, 用這筆錢的10分之1 you could have paid all of the world's top male and female supermodels 你就能請到全世界的男女超級名模 to walk up and down the train handing out free Chateau Petrus to all the passengers. 在走道上向所有旅客分發免費的波得路堡葡萄酒 You'd still have five [million] pounds in change, 你還能剩下50億英鎊 and people would ask for the trains to be slowed down. 旅客還可能會要求列車減速 (Laughter) （笑聲） Why were we not given the chance 我們為什麼從未嘗試 to solve that problem psychologically? 從心理學的角度來解決問題？ I think it's because there's an imbalance, an asymmetry, 我想這是因為我們對待以下兩種思維方式是不平衡、不對稱的 in the way we treat creative, emotionally-driven psychological ideas 一種是創造性的、情緒引導的心理學思維方式 versus the way we treat rational, numerical, spreadsheet-driven ideas. 另一種理性的、數據的、報表引導的思維方式 If you're a creative person, I think quite rightly, 如果你是一個創造性的人 you have to share all your ideas for approval 你必須將自己的想法分享給 with people much more rational than you. 更理性的人，獲得他們的批准 You have to go in and you have to have a cost-benefit analysis, 你必須給出一個成本收益分析 a feasibility study, an ROI study and so forth. 一個可行性研究投資回報率分析之類的東西 And I think that's probably right. 這也許沒有錯 But this does not apply the other way around. 但當情況反過來時卻是行不通的 People who have an existing framework, 那些已有理論框架 an economic framework, an engineering framework, 經濟學框架、工程學框架 feel that actually logic is its own answer. 認為邏輯是自身的答案 What they don't say is, "Well the numbers all seem to add up, 他們不會說：“數字看來是沒錯 but before I present this idea, I'll go and show it to some really crazy people 但我要在報告這個想法之前我要去問問那些真正瘋狂的人 to see if they can come up with something better." 看他們能不能有更好的想法。” And so we, artificially I think, prioritize 所以我們人為地 what I'd call mechanistic ideas over psychological ideas. 將機械化思維置於心理學思維之上 An example of a great psychological idea: 這裡有個關於心理學解決方案的絕佳例子： The single best improvement in passenger satisfaction on the London Underground per pound spent 倫敦地鐵花錢在改善乘客滿意度上最好的措施 came when they didn't add any extra trains nor change the frequency of the trains, 並不是增加列車數量或者改變行班間距 they put dot matrix display board on the platforms. 而是在月臺上放置了顯示營幕 Because the nature of a wait 由於等待的特性 is not just dependent on its numerical quality, its duration, 並不完全取決於等待時間的長度 but on the level of uncertainty you experience during that wait. 而是取決於你等待時所感受不確定性的程度 Waiting seven minutes for a train with a countdown clock 在計時器的倒計時中等待7分鐘 is less frustrating and irritating 其間的沮喪和煩躁遠低於 than waiting four minutes, knuckle-biting 只等了四分鐘，但咬著手指不斷逼問 going, "When's this train going to damn well arrive?" 這該死的車什麼時候才來？ Here's a beautiful example of a psychological solution deployed in Korea. 韓國也有個很棒的心理學解決方案 Red traffic lights have a countdown delay. 紅燈時有倒數計時 It's proven to reduce the accident rate in experiments. 這在實驗中被證實能夠降低事故發生率 Why?