If it keeps humming until July 2019, it will be the longest expansion in U.S. history.

如果持續發展，到 2019 年 7 月就會是美國歷史上最久的成長期。

It would be exactly one decade and one month old by then.

屆時剛好是 10 年又 1 個月。

But there's another country with an even more impressive run.

但有另一個國家有更讓人印象深刻的發展。

Australia hasn't had a recession in 27 years.

澳洲已經 27 年沒有發生經濟衰退了。

It's even called the 'lucky country'

它甚至被譽為「幸運的國家」。

Three big lessons from Australia.

澳洲的三大課題是：

Be smart. Be organized. Be lucky. So if I've got any advice

要聰明。要有條理。還要有好運。所以如果要我給

for other countries, it's try and be as lucky as Australia.

其他國家建議的話，就是嘗試，並且像澳洲一樣幸運。

That luck has to do with Australia's treasure trove of natural resources : iron ore, gas and coal.

澳洲的幸運之處，就是擁有寶貴的天然資源：鐵礦、天然氣還有煤礦。

You know Australia is on the other side of the world

你知道澳洲位在世界的另一邊，

and sitting on tremendously valuable minerals right at the point where the Chinese economy is just around the corner and exploding.

並富有豐富的礦物資源，就在中國經濟起飛蓬勃發展之時。

Australia and all its natural resources were in the right geographic neighborhood just as the Chinese economy started to take off.

在中國經濟起飛之際，澳洲和它的天然資源有地緣優勢。

And it just so happens that China did a big fiscal stimulus in 2008

中國於 2008 年開始大力刺激經歷

and spent a great deal of money building new cities.

並投入大量資金興建城市。

So all of those resources were drawn from places like Australia.

所有的資源都從各地輸入，例如從澳洲。

So that also served as a huge tailwind at a time when developed markets were in a whole lot of trouble.

已開發市場身處水深火熱之中時，這確實是很大的助力。

The year 2008 was a time of economic turmoil.

2008 年是經濟混亂的時期。

The Global Financial Crisis hit and markets crumbled around the world.

全球經濟危機爆發導致世界市場崩潰。

But as it turns out this was also a year for Australia's economic management to really show off.

但這也是澳洲經濟管理模式真正大展身手的一年。

At the time the government had a very helpful and very low level of debt.

當時政府負債極低，這是非常有幫助的現象。

One reason?

原因是什麼？

Pension reform in the 1990s.

1990 年代的退休金改革。

Australia set up a compulsory retirement system called the superannuation system.

澳洲設置了強制性的退休制度叫做退休金系統。

It requires employers put money into its employees' retirement savings.

它要求雇主把錢存入員工的退休存款中。

Australia's superannuation assets top $2.8 trillion dollars as September 2018.

2018 年 9 月澳洲的退休金資產高達 2.8 兆美元。

Since companies and citizens have to build up retirement savings,

由於公司行號和居民必須有退休存款，

some of the financial burden to pay off pensions was taken off of Australia's government.

澳洲政府與退休金有關的財務負擔就比較少了。

As other economies reeled in the wake of the 2008 crisis, the Australian Government was then able to put money directly into people's bank accounts.

當其他國家正苦苦等待 2008 危機後的復甦，澳洲政府已經能夠直接將錢存入人民的銀行帳戶。

This boosted consumer spending in order to stimulate growth.

這加速了消費者花錢並刺激經濟成長。

In 2008, the Australian Government unlike some

2008 年澳洲政府不像某些

other developed market governments actually jumped in very quickly with fiscal stimulus,

已開發市場的政府，立即著手進行經濟刺激，

so that helped to kind of minimize the effect of the crisis.

這在某種程度上降低了經濟危機的影響。

The country's numbers continued to look sluggish after the financial crisis.

經濟危機之後澳洲的經濟數據看起來沒有大幅好轉。

But they never quite dipped low enough

但它們從沒有像衰退的定義那樣低

or for long enough to meet the definition of a recession.

或處於低處過久。

It takes two quarters of negative growth to fall into a recession.

要達到衰退的定義，必須有連續兩季處於負成長。

Australia's economy did post a few negative quarters since 2008, but no country's perfect.

澳洲的經濟自 2008 年以來確實曾有過幾季較差的表現，但沒有任何國家是完美的。

Overall Australia's economy has been managed pretty well in recent years partly because of a strong and stable central bank.

整體來說近年來澳洲經濟維持得很不錯，一部份的原因是強健穩定的中央銀行。

Australia has an independent central bank and it's

澳洲有獨立的中央銀行，它是

a very well-run central bank.

受到妥善經營的中央銀行。

It also has a floating exchange rate and the exchange rate helped it adjust to international shocks.

它有浮動匯率，這有助於針對國際影響作出調整。

Australia's economic reforms gave it flexibility in times of hardship.

澳洲的經濟改革有助於在困難的時期保有彈性。

For example, floating the Australian dollar.

例如，讓澳元處於浮動匯率。

In 1983, Australia's government moved the dollar onto a floating exchange rate.

1983 年澳洲政府將澳元改成浮動匯率。

This meant that the dollar would be valued by supply and demand

這表示澳元的價值將取決於供需，

instead of being subject to influence from its government or its central bank.

而非受到政府或中央銀行的影響限制。

It allows the economy to react to shocks as well

這項政策讓澳洲經濟得以應付衝擊。

Typically when an economy is hit by some sort of

特別是經濟受到負面衝擊

negative shock, the currency will adjust.

影響的時候，貨幣會有所調整。

It will depreciate and that helps promote exports.

貨幣會貶值，這有助於推動出口。

So it really serves as a buffer.

所以這就像是一個緩衝器。

Another reason behind Australia's economic track record lies in its immigration policy.

澳洲經濟記錄背後的另一個原因是移民政策。

Since the late 1990s, Australia has seen growth in

自 1990 年代後期以來，澳洲便見證

temporary migration, many arriving to the country on student or temporary work visas.

暫時的移民浪潮，許多人持有留學或暫時工作簽證而來到這個國家。

The number of temporary migrants peaked in the year 2000.

暫時性移民的數字在 2000 年達到高峰。

However a recent change to immigration law in 2018

然而 2018 年移民法律有了改變，

gave visa applicants more hurdles to get

讓申請簽證的人有更多困難，

through if they wanted to come to the country.

如果他們想要來這個國家。

Even when our GDP per capita

我們的人均 GDP，

average incomes aren't rising by much because the

平均收入並沒有明顯增加，因為

number of people continues to rise that means the total

人口數也持續上升，這表示整體

GDP continues to rise at even more rapid pace.

GDP 持續以更快的速度上升。

Immigration is one of the key reasons that Australians are used to talking about economic growth rates of 3 percent or 4 percent.

過去澳洲人常常談到經濟成長率有 3 或 4 %，主要原因之一就是移民。

Part of that's underpinned by much faster population growth

其中一部分是受到人口快速成長的支持。

Most experts think Australia's economy remains strong in 2019, but it's not without risks.

大部分的專家認為澳洲經濟在 2019 年依然強健，但並非沒有風險。

Australia's suffering at the moment from pretty weak wage growth.

澳洲現處於薪資成長緩慢的困境中。

That's worrying a lot of people.

很多人擔心這個狀況。

There's a lot of fear right now that China is hitting a wall.

現在很多人擔心中國發展面臨瓶頸。

That will hit demand for Australian products.

這會影響它對澳洲產品的需求。

The good news is to the extent that the Chinese are buying commodities

好消息是希望中國人購買商品的地方

hopefully will find buyers from overseas for many of those commodities

會為那些商品找到海外買家，

if the Chinese are not there.

如果中國人購買澳洲產品。

The bad news is the rest of the world economy is not doing that well.

壞消息是世界其他地方的經濟目前都不太好。

For Australia to do really well, the rest of the world has to do well.

如果澳洲經濟要維持良好，世界其他地方必須處於好的狀態。