Name: 普京與西方的遊戲｜經濟學家 (Putin's games with the West | The Economist)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T08:05:14.000Z
Duration: 7 min 40 s

基礎被動語態

Garry Kasparov is regarded as one of the best chess players of all time.

加里・卡斯帕洛夫被公認為有史以來最頂尖的西洋棋手之一。

His success within the Soviet Union's chess team in the 70s and 80s, has made him a household name around the world.

在 1970 至 1980 年之間，他服役於蘇聯西洋棋隊，屢獲佳績，使他成為世界家喻戶曉的人物。

西洋棋是百分之百可以全然看透的遊戲。

Information, which is available for me, at the board, is also available for my opponent, and vice versa.

棋盤上對我來說有用的資訊，對我的對手亦同樣有用，反之亦然。

What will happen on the chess board five or 10 moves from now.

要能預測棋盤上五至十步左右的局勢變化。

After retiring from chess in 2005, Mr. Kasparov changed his game, moving into politics.

2005 年從西洋棋屆退休後，加里・卡斯帕洛夫先生改變跑道、轉戰政壇。

He tried to challenge a new opponent, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.

他試著擊敗一位全新的對手——俄羅斯總統佛拉迪米爾・普丁。

人們將很多事情比喻為西洋棋。

You can hear chess metaphors all over the place, whether in politics or at war.

你到處都可以聽到跟西洋棋有關的比喻，不論在政治或戰爭上。

In 2007, Mr. Kasparov announced he would run against Mr. Putin in the presidential election.

2007 年，卡斯帕洛夫先生宣布參選俄羅斯總統選舉，成為普丁先生的對手。

But he was not experienced in the game of politics and it wasn't much of a contest.

但他未諳政治遊戲，況且這壓根不僅是一場比賽而已。

He failed to secure a place on the electoral ballot.

But what game is Mr. Putin playing with the West?

但普丁先生究竟在和西方玩哪一套？

The idea that Putin is a great chess player is very far from reality.

普丁是一位優秀的西洋棋手這個概念跟事實相去甚遠。

Dictators, they always like to operate in secrecy and Putin is a KGB dictator.

獨裁者通常喜歡暗地裡策劃，而普丁是位國家安全委員會出身的獨裁者。

Secrecy, blackmail, those are the rules of his game.

密謀、勒索，這些都是他遊戲中的規則。

The game that is far more consistent with Putin's habits is a game of cards.

這場遊戲遠遠不與普丁的興趣相符，他擅長紙牌遊戲。

Where you can start reading your opponents, bluffing and raising stakes.

在撲克牌中你可以讀對手的心思、可以虛張聲勢、可以提高賭注。

In 1999 Mr. Putin took over as Russian president from Boris Yeltsin.

俄羅斯前總統鮑利斯・葉爾欽下台後，普丁先生於 1999 年接任總統。

As Eastern Europe transitioned from communism to democracy relations between Russia and the West improved.

東歐從共產轉型為民主國家之際，俄羅斯與西方國家的關係改善不少。

But after the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, Mr. Putin became increasingly hostile.

但在烏克蘭橙色革命之後，普丁先生對西方的敵意卻與日俱增。

He felt that America was meddling in Russia's sphere of influence.

他認為美國涉足了俄羅斯的勢力範圍。

In 2007, he used his speech at the Munich Security Conference to voice his angry criticism of American foreign policy.

2007 年，普丁在慕尼黑安全會議中，針對美國的外交政策，發表了一篇義憤填膺的評論演說。

America and it's allies kept their poker face.

I thought the speech was very aggressive, but we welcome the dialogue and look forward to further discussions.

我認為普丁的演講深具攻擊性，但是我們歡迎任何意見交流，也期待更進一步的討論。

In 2007 in Munich, Putin made very blatant statement about his plans to recover Russia's influence in the former Soviet Union.

2007 年，普丁在慕尼黑提出十分狂妄的聲明，表示他正計劃恢復俄羅斯在前蘇聯的影響力。

It's a watershed moment where is a difference in language being used by both sides.

在這個關鍵時刻，雙方使用的語言有所落差。

Dictator believes that he sent a message.

獨裁者相信他傳達了一則訊息。

The other side thinks, oh we just, well we're being tested.

另一方則認為，噢，我們剛剛，好吧我們被測試了。

In 2014, Mr. Putin embarked on his most aggressive move yet.

2014 年，普丁展開了他目前為止最激進的一步。

Annexing Crimea and later invading part of Ukraine.

併吞克里米亞，隨後侵入烏克蘭。

In Crimea, Russian troops occupied the streets, but they had no insignia on their uniforms and there was no acknowledgement from Russia that it was involved.

在克里米亞，俄羅斯軍隊佔領街道，但他們的制服上沒有任何標示身份的標誌，也沒有包括任何來自俄羅斯的首肯。

All elements of the game being well prepared.

這場遊戲的所有要素都安排到位。

Putin didn't care very much about Western reaction to the annexation of Crimea, because he already saw no reaction when he did his attack on Republic of Georgia in 2008.

普丁根本不在意西方對於俄羅斯入侵克里米亞的反應，因為在 2008 年攻擊喬治亞共和國時，他已看到西方毫無反應。

Mr. Putin had already tested the West six years earlier, during the five day war with Georgia.

普丁先生早在六年前，以與喬治亞歷時僅五天的戰爭中，測試過西方國家。

Unwilling to confront Russia directly, some Western leaders blamed the recklessness of Georgia's president at the time.

一些西方國家的領導人因為不願意與俄羅斯正面交鋒，轉而怪罪喬治亞當時的總統輕忽草率。

In the case of Russia's war with Ukraine though, the West responded by imposing sanctions on Mr. Putin's inner circle.

然而，就俄羅斯與烏克蘭這場戰役來說，西方國家僅以制裁俄羅斯核心圈內的成員作為回應。

I guess that the sanctions was kind of a surprise to him.

我猜這個制裁對普丁來說十分意外。

It was definitely more than Putin expected.

In 2012, the United States drew a red line in Syria.

2012 年，美國對敘利亞發出紅色警戒。

It told President Bashar al-Assad that if chemical weapons were used by their regime, America would take military action.

告知總統巴沙爾・阿薩德，如果他們在其國境內使用化學武器，美國將會對他們採取軍事行動。

But just one year on, the regime killed 1400 of it's own people with sarin gas.

但才短短一年時間，這個政權已經用沙林殺死了 1400 位民眾。

America failed to act and it emboldened Mr. Putin.

美國未能作出反應，這增強了普丁先生膽識。

When the UN Security Council met in 2015 to discuss how to stop the Syrian regime, President Putin was at the table and was about to call America's bluff.

2015 年聯合國安全理事會開會討論如何終止敘利亞政權，普丁總統在桌旁，準備要揭穿美國的虛張聲勢。

阿薩德必須下台，這就是歐巴馬所言。

Now Putin wants to prove that Obama was wrong.

現在，普丁想要證明歐巴馬是錯的。

All of a sudden he goes to New York for General Assembly, meets Obama.

出乎意料地，他去紐約參與聯合國大會，會見歐巴馬。

Looking in his eye, shaking hands, to show the Russian television that he Putin went to America, he tried to improve relations.

直視他的眼睛、與之握手，普丁要讓俄羅斯電視台知道，他去了一趟美國，他想要改善跟西方的關係。

Next day, Russian planes bombed American-backed opposition in Syria.

隔天，俄羅斯軍機轟炸敘利亞境內獲有美國支持的反對派。

In the US presidential election of 2016, the FBI says that Russia used cyber-attacks and social media to undermine trust in democracy and help get Donald Trump elected.

2016 年美國總統選舉時，聯邦調查局表示俄羅斯採用網路攻擊以及社群媒體來削弱人民對民主的信任，並幫助唐納・川普獲選。

How about first discrediting the elections, the institute of democracy?

先敗壞選舉這個民主的原則，這樣如何？

Troll factories that were built in Russia, to fight Russian opposition, to create fake news.

酸民工廠設立於俄羅斯，目的是打擊俄羅斯反對黨、製造假新聞。

13 Russian nationals have been indicted in America for interfering and damaging the prospects of the Democratic candidate, Hilary Clinton.

十三名俄羅斯公民在美國因妨礙及破壞民主黨候選人希拉蕊・柯林頓的選途遭到起訴。

So how would Garry Kasparov play against Mr. Putin?

那麼，加里・卡斯帕洛夫要如何跟普丁先生對弈呢？

Instead he thinks the West must isolate and deter Mr. Putin and his inner circle through a strategy of economic sanctions, visa limitations and seizure of assets.

反之，他認為西方國家必須透過經濟制裁、簽證限制和扣押資產等策略來孤立、威嚇普丁先生及他的核心圈。

Of course we can call his bluff, of course we can keep raising stakes.

我們當然可以揭穿他的虛張聲勢，我們當然可以提高賭注。

But at the end of the day, as long as we keep being blackmailed in this geo-political casino, Putin can be viewed as the winner of the game.

但到頭來，在這個地緣政治賭場裡，只要我們一再遭勒索，普丁就會被視為這場遊戲的贏家。

It's in our hands, to make sure that his tactical gains will be turned into strategic losses.

這一切都在我們掌握之中，來確保他的策略性獲益會轉變為戰略上的損失。

So it's not a game of cards, but it's the game that I know much better, this is a game of chess.

所以這不是場紙牌遊戲，而是一場我更為熟悉的遊戲，這是一場西洋棋對奕。

And this is where strategy is everything.

而在這棋盤上，戰略就是一切。

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普京與西方的遊戲｜經濟學家 (Putin's games with the West | The Economist)

strategy

aggressive

interfere

influence